How KC Will Avoid Misery at MetLife

The way we think about this era of Kansas City Chiefs football could fundamentally change tonight. Winning against the 0-2 New York Giants on the road puts us all on the path back to normalcy, back to how we usually feel about this team. Losing at MetLife Stadium tonight would bring us to the franchise's lowest ebb since Patrick Mahomes became an NFL starter. Is the golden era of Chiefs football coming to an end, or can the Chiefs keep the good times rolling? To keep the magic alive, KC must now find a way to apply pressure to their opponent.

According to the guys at PFF, the Chiefs have the third-worst pass rush rate in football. Making the opposition uncomfortable in the pocket pays dividends in the modern NFL, and the Chiefs can't do it. I don't want to focus on excuses, but facing off with two highly-regarded quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, not to mention the highly-regarded offensive lines that protect them, may have something to do with KC's struggles in this area. When the Giants faced off with a Micah Parsons-less Dallas Cowboys defense, Russell Wilson finished the game with 450 passing yards and three touchdowns. Avoiding that kind of production is key to a Chiefs victory tonight, but Kansas City's defense will be missing a significant and pricey piece.

Chiefs defensive end Mike Danna will miss tonight's game due to a quad injury, so KC needs rookie Ashton Gillotte to step up. PFF graded both guys in the mid-50's so far this season, so perhaps the younger player with a higher ceiling could make the team better in the long-term. We'll see if Gillotte is ready to live up to the moment with his increased playing time tonight. Add him to the list of young Chiefs defenders that need to play well to keep this dynasty alive. It's nothing new to Steve Spagnuolo, and despite this concern about a lack of pass rush, Spags has still kept games close against two legit Super Bowl contenders this season.

Last week, Hurts finished with 101 passing yards and led his offense to score just 20 points. Even the great Saquon Barkley only ran for 88 yards. Herbert torched KC's young secondary in the Chiefs season opener, but Spags still put his defense in a spot where one stop on 3rd and 15 would have given Mahomes the ball back with a chance to nail a two-minute drive to win the game. This defense is not that far off from being good, despite being young. The ability to trust young talent like Gillotte, Chamarri Conner and others factors heavily into the sustainability of this dynasty. To trust the underpaid youth on the roster means everything to a championship-worthy franchise in any league with a salary cap.

That's also true for the Giants and their first-round draft pick Abdul Carter. He, along with Brian Burns and nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II, has the ability to wreck plays and ruin an opponent's game-plan. Andy Reid will need to win the chess match tonight by keeping these pieces out of dangerous positions, and I think he'll succeed just often enough for KC to get the win. The Chiefs shouldn't need 40 to beat the Giants like the Cowboys last week. The same Russ that put up a billion passing yards last week also failed to score a touchdown against the Washington Commanders in Week 1. The start of the season can be unpredictable and weird, but I'm predicting that our Chiefs begin to right the ship with a 27-20 victory tonight.

Can KC's Struggling Offense Brutalize Bitter Broncos?

    How would you feel if your boss was fired after a bad performance, then the new boss immediately calls the old boss an inept moron, but then your new boss is just as bad, if not worse, than your old one? Would you feel confident about your new boss's ability to position you for success? Can you see where I'm going with this?

    The Denver Broncos roster must feel completely dejected right now. There is no way Sean Payton makes that clubhouse healthier than your average NFL head coach. Nobody held a gun to Sean Payton's head and told him to talk down to Nathaniel Hackett the way he did. Payton volunteered his opinion that Hackett provided Denver with "one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL" last season, but the Broncos are now a worse team with worse morale with Payton as their head coach. Nat Hackett now coordinates the offense for the New York Jets, the team who defeated Payton's Broncos 31-21 last Sunday.

    Revenge is sweet, and sustained success is even sweeter. It seems as if Sean Payton won't enjoy either for a very long time.

    There are positives to find if you look hard enough at Denver's season up to the this point, but they take a second to see. Denver started the season 0-2, but they only lost those games by a combined three points. Patrick Surtain II is still a legitimately great CB, and he'll be facing off with an injured Travis Kelce and a bunch of still-unproven Chiefs receivers. Russ has also improved this season, but he's still nowhere near elite.

    Last year, Wilson tied with Justin Fields for the league lead in sacks taken with 55. Only two QB's that played in more than six games compiled a lower completion percentage last season. He finished with the 10th-most interceptions thrown and the fifth-lowest QBR. Wilson's current QBR is 22nd in the NFL, and his completion percentage is 17th. Five QB's have been sacked more than Russ, and his 11/2 touchdown pass/interception ratio is one of the NFL's best. Still, these numbers indicate that Russ's ceiling is league-average at his position this year.

    KC's offense may not be firing on all cylinders, but the Broncos aren't the team to make the Kingdom fear this flaw. They're the worst defense in the league by a comfortable margin. Denver allows over 45 more total yards and over 4 more points per game than any other team in the league. Isiah Pacheco could have another outstanding game, as the Broncos also allow more than 30 more rushing yards per game than any other NFL team. Breece Hall averaged 8.0 yards per carry last week and finished the day with 177 rushing yards.

    Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes aren't losing to a grumpy Sean Payton four days after Payton got humbled by the very man he publicly insulted. They aren't losing to a Broncos franchise that hasn't beaten them since the Obama administration. They aren't losing to a team that allowed 35 points to Sam Howell's Washington Commanders, 31 to Justin Fields' Chicago Bears, 31 to Zach Wilson's New York Jets and 70 to the only good quarterback/team combo they faced, Tua Tagovailoa's Miami Dolphins. I looked at power rankings from ESPN, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and Yahoo Sports, and they all ranked the Chiefs ahead of the Dolphins. KC may not drop 70 on Denver, but they should score enough to ensure victory tonight. I'm predicting a 31-17 win and a bunch of Taylor Swift references from the broadcast crew to get them through garbage time.

Division in Disarray as Chiefs Chase #1 Seed

Our Kansas City Chiefs won enough this year to stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed with only two regular season games left. Meanwhile, the hapless Denver Broncos just fired their head coach midseason. Elsewhere in the AFC West, the similarly hapless Las Vegas Raiders just told their starting QB and two stand-out defenders to take a seat on the bench until the season's over. At least Chargers fans have a 9-6 record and the prodigious Justin Herbert to keep them hopeful. Neither the Broncos or Raiders have a head coach or a QB who has earned enough trust to give their fans a shadow of hope next season. That's gotta hurt.

It would also hurt if the Chiefs pooped the bed by losing to either one of these hopeless teams with the #1 seed still within reach. The Broncos have a -1 turnover differential on the season, which is better than KC's -5, and their defense still ranks seventh-best or higher in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Those are the only things Denver can claim to do better than Kansas City. Russell Wilson and the statistically horrible offense he leads hasn't stopped being horrible over the last three weeks, if you can believe that. Denver also has serious penalty problems, which was probably a factor in deciding to give their head coach the boot before the season was over. 

The Titans, who played their 16th game of the season Thursday, lead the league in yards lost to penalties with 917. Denver has lost 912 yards to penalty while playing one less game. The third-highest amount of yards lost to penalty is 76 yards fewer. That third-worst ranking belongs to the Raiders, by the way, who will face KC in the regular season's final week.

The Broncos need more than a different head coach if they want to beat the Chiefs while KC is still fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs. I'm predicting a routine 31-14 Chiefs victory that keeps their hopes for reclaiming the #1 seed in the conference alive. It feels great to be a citizen of Chiefs Kingdom, especially while witnessing two of our divisional "rivals" fail to deliver for their success-hungry fanbases.

How Many MVP Candidates Can You Pay With Russell Wilson's Contract?

The Kansas City Chiefs must be hungry to show their skills after a disappointing loss to Joe Burrow's resilient Cincinnati Bengals. The Denver Broncos must be deflated after crashing to the bottom of their division thanks largely to the struggles of their well-paid Subway spokesman playing quarterback. These simple facts make this week's Chiefs-Broncos game particularly easy to analyze and predict.

The Broncos actually have terrific numbers on defense, which makes Russell Wilson's legacy-tarnishing ineffectiveness even more painful for their fans. Perhaps Denver's defensive stats are in fact skewed by how little their opponents need to score in order to win. Whatever the case may be, the Broncos allow the NFL's third-fewest total yards, third-fewest passing yards and second-fewest points per game. This represents a nearly unmatched level of prowess on that side of the ball, yet it resulted in a hopeless losing season for Denver. They're about to finish last in a division that includes a team coached by Josh McDaniels.

I know it's the trendy thing to dunk on Russell Wilson right now, but any honest analysis of this Denver team makes more dunking inescapable. Judging by any metric we could possibly use to measure quarterback performance, Wilson has been one of the five worst at his position this year. His Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating are 28th and 29th, respectively. He leads one of only five teams who have already accumulated nine losses this season. For the price Denver is paying for Russell's services, they could instead double Geno Smith's salary, pay that, and also pay Joe Burrow. Geno and Joe are on pace to get MVP votes on the new five-vote ballots. Russell is on pace to never film another sandwich commercial again. 

Wilson's ineffectiveness paired with the Chiefs' hunger to bounce back from a sobering defeat at the hands of their new arch-rivals should result in decisive victory for KC. Denver has held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in 8/12 games so far this season, so Chiefs Kingdom shouldn't be concerned if Mahomes doesn't put up 50. I'll predict a 24-16 victory for KC, and I really hope it comes in the afterglow of another New York Jets victory over the conference-leading Buffalo Bills. If the Jets can help out Chiefs Kingdom yet again, KC can regain the pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC.