3 Important Lists For Preseason Week 3

Here we go, Chiefs fans. The wait is kinda over. Today we can forget about training camp, team-building exercises and boring preseason press conferences. There's plenty to talk about and catch up on here, but for now we're keeping it (comparatively) simple. Today, we're talking about preseason Week 3- the first week of football that truly feels like football.

Week 3 of the preseason marks the official moment when actual play is important enough that yelling at TV screens becomes socially appropriate for the next five months or so. To celebrate that important milestone, I have 3 lists of 3 for Week 3. My goal today is to curb enthusiasm, temper negativity and point out important things for fans to keep their eyes on today, all with one oddly-structured welcome-back post.

3 Things to Watch For In Week 3

1- Dave Toub's effect on the special teams play. This post from Mellinger, and the hilarious accompanying video, showcases the positive change being made so far, but many fans will surely continue to underrate this aspect of the game. Probably for life. And it's a shame, considering we have some exciting tools to plug into a proven system that's already shown its ability to change a game completely. No one knows for sure if Devin Hester's success was a byproduct of his own talents or the Dave Toub system. Obviously, it must be a mixture of the two, but who's to say that Dexter McCluster doesn't have all the traits to be the next big deal on special teams? After witnessing the majority of an up-and-down, historically streaky baseball season, the length of the NFL season feels almost unjustly short to me. Every one of those 16 games is huge, and that makes every kick return for a touchdown either a devastating blow or an unequivocal advantage.

2- AJ Jenkin's ability, or lack thereof, to become a factor quickly. This goes for anybody else trying to gain a prominent role in this offense. Wanna guess who has the most catches on the roster? That would be rookie running back Knile Davis, with 7 receptions for 49 yards. To really get excited about this offense, fans need to see guys like Donnie Avery (1 catch for 6 yards this preseason) and AJ Jenkins (never caught an NFL pass) to step up. Especially after losing some heigth with the Baldwin/Jenkins trade, Reid will look to counter this lack of size with a small army of shorter-than-average skill players. Those little guys will make a big difference in Kansas City's 2013 playoff hopes.

3- The secondary's effectiveness in containing another quality QB. Roethlisberger comes into tonight's game with a 3-1 career record against the Chiefs. In those games, he's completed 70.9% of his 110 pass attempts. Limiting Big Ben to a lower percentage would be a welcome sign of improvement for this new and, hopefully, improved secondary. The only other starting QB with significant playing time against this Chiefs defense is Drew Brees. He completed 7 of 10 for 65 yards, but it took the impressive accuracy that you'd expect from Brees and few else to make the Chiefs' secondary look small.

3 Things to Remember When the Chiefs Look Great

1- It's the preseason. Everything is still vanilla on either side of the ball, and within that context athleticism rules the day. Don't be overly-wooed by good play from returning Chiefs. Let's not forget that last year's team posted the worst record in franchise history with the same 5 Pro Bowlers that will take the field today. Tight coverage from Brandon Flowers and jaw-dropping plays from Jamaal Charles are nothing new to Kansas City, and by themselves they won't save the Chiefs from another disappointing season. I know Derrick Johnson is great, I know Tamba's a beast, and I dedicated a whole post to the unheralded greatness of Dustin Colquitt. If KC wants to change their losing ways, fans need to see productivity from someone new. I'm looking at you, Alex Smith.

2- Keep in mind when this offense looks impressive and efficient that it's still limited. Don't let anything fool you into thinking Alex Smith has an arm capable of spreading the field. He just doesn't. This is going to bring consternation from the fan-base, and probably some mostly-undeserved flack to Andy Reid's hairy ear-holes. The third WR spot is also a topic of legitimate concern. The team website's unofficial depth chart lists Junior Hemingway and AJ Jenkins as starters at the 3^rd WR position. These two have a combined total of exactly zero catches in the NFL.

3- Think Sean Smith looks great? He does, until he gets burnt, which happens frequently. His ball-hawking often resulted in big gains for the opposing team during his years with Miami. In four seasons, his gambling yielded only 5 picks in 63 games, which averages out to 0.079 interceptions per game, or 0.98 per season. I know it's early to be skeptical, but getting snickered at by Dolphins fans is a bad omen. I though I could skip my preseason ritual of stocking up on blood pressure medication, especially when Javier Arenas left town (one last dig on that guy, check.) I just hope this new, talented-but-dangerous cornerback doesn't send me running back to the drugstore in jittery rage this year.

3 Things to Remember When The Chiefs Look Awful

1- It's the preseason. The success of the 2013 Chiefs will depend greatly on the effectiveness of a completely new coaching regime. Everything, as I've mentioned, is still vanilla, and if KC finds themselves in the playoff hunt this year, it will be because better coaching created a better product on the field. This aforementioned vanilla-ness (vanillality?) limits the potency of a good coaching staff. Andy Reid will win games this year with X's and O's, but preseason week 3 is largely referred to as the season's dress rehearsal. Winning the chess match is how Andy Reid makes a living, but in this game, all his chess pieces are stuck in the same, predictable spots.

Oh hey, do me a favor and try saying “vanillality” out loud. You can thank me later.

2- Even if the Chiefs lose every preseason game, isn't that better than using preseason as a glorified 2-hour workout? I know it's been a while, but damn. Seriously. How awful was that? More to my point, how awful was that coaching staff in general? Remember Todd Haley sabotaging his own team with 4 consecutive starts by Tyler “The Tricycle” Palko? Yep, he's gone (and he's actually on the other sideline, coaching the Steelers offense.) Speaking of past woes....

3- Just remember last year, and compare the hope we have now to the disgust we had just months ago. Remember Scott Pioli's big, sweaty head? Gone. Remember Romeo Crennel's complete lack of explanation or understanding as to why his team was so dreadfully bad? Never would I imagine that I'd be so happy to substitute “lovable black Santa Claus” with “man who oh-so-closely resembles a walrus.” Remember Matt Cassel? I don't have a smart comment for that one, I just want you to close your eyes and think deeply about Matt Cassel starting at quarterback for your favorite team.

Yeah. The queasiness you're feeling proves my point better than words ever could. There's so much to look forward to, and not only because we can embrace not sucking. We have reasons to believe this is the foundation for a playoff team, if not this year, then soon. If I haven't murdered the word “hope” through overusing it on this blog, I'm sure that I'll finish the job this season. Welcome back, and thanks for reading.

Happy Time

If I had a press pass right now, my first question would go to Dwayne Bowe. If anyone on the team can be more deeply affected by the recent offensive acquisitions, it would be the man who Matt Cassel almost solely targeted last year. I'd like to ask him how he feels about the Chiefs having more viable threats for their passing game. I like to think that makes me a positive kind of person, since I know damn well he must be mighty pleased. There are probably a dozen more poignant or interesting questions I could ask, but now's not the time for that. Offseason is a wonderful, wishful-thinking period full of what-ifs, when everybody's still undefeated. So we're not talking about negative things today. I'm not making any angry criticisms of Branden Albert or Scott Pioli or Todd Haley. Not today. As someone way more famous than myself likes to put it, it's happy time, people. So today, we're talking about happy things.

The Chiefs made big moves to upgrade the offense in recent weeks, so there's plenty of optimism to discuss. The Chiefs not only spent their 2^nd round pick on TE Travis Kelce, they also signed free agents Anthony Fasano and Donnie Avery. Donnie will earn $8.55 million for his three seasons in KC, averaging $2.85 a year. Now listed as the 73^rd highest-paid receiver in the league, he'll find it difficult to make this a bad investment.

Not only is Avery a known deep threat, but in this system he should prove to be a productive check-down option for Alex Smith. He has the speed to get YAC, and the sheer amount of dangerous eligible receivers on the field should give him the space he needs to get open. With Avery and McCluster being viable check-down options, and with Jamaal inevitably catching more short passes than ever before, we can expect to see ordinary check-downs turn into big gains this year.

Donnie Avery played two seasons in St. Louis after the Rams drafted him with the 33^rd overall pick in '08. He then spent a year with the Titans before played last season in Indy. 2012 was his most productive season, with 60 catches for 781 yards. Many, including Adam Schefter, believe Avery has the talent to break out as a big-time receiver. With all the new options for Smith to target, Donnie might get open more than ever before, but he may also catch less passes. That's just fine. He's a deep threat- the guy runs the forty in 4.2 seconds. Every play where he goes deep, he'll influence the game, whether he touches the ball or not.

Avery's speed is going to stretch the field, clearing out the middle for everyone else. This makes D Bowe more dangerous and gets him open more often. This limits the opportunity to blitz, especially with corners or safeties. It makes Jamaal even more deadly in the second level, and it does wonders for tight ends trying to find space in the middle of the field. If KC gets to Week 4 or 5 and Avery doesn't have 10 catches yet, don't worry about it. As long as the guys around him are putting up solid numbers, Donnie's doing his job. Like I said, though, for the reasons mentioned above, he may just break out and be the next big deal. This article explains why Avery will get comfortable quickly in this new offensive system, so fans can expect him to make an impact immediately.

Speaking of tight ends (like five sentences ago, but I'm bad with segues), the Chiefs hope that 2^nd round pick Travis Kelce turns out to be a big deal, as well. Kelce is perhaps a new name to Chiefs fans, but not to Andy Reid. Travis' brother, Jason Kelce, is a consistently productive and gloriously bearded member of the Philadelphia Eagles. In Philly, older brother Luke (and his beard) thrived under Andy's well-groomed tutelage, starting every game of the 2011 season. While still with the Eagles, Reid got to know Jason's younger brother and took note of his potential.

I won't pretend to be an expert on Cincinnati University football, but this article's collection of highlights does a pretty good job of presenting Travis as a strong, gritty player with impressive athleticism. He should fit in well and get a chance as a starter quickly, if not immediately. Tony Moeaki, Anthony Fasano and Kevin Brock are the only other TEs on the roster. Brock played on the practice squad for six teams before playing in two games for Buffalo and recording 2 catches in total. After that, he was out of the NFL until the Chiefs signed him. That means Kelce's only real competition should come from Anthony Fasano.

Fasano started all but 4 games for Miami since 2008, but he's only averaged 2.3 catches per game over that span. Kelce is a proven run blocker with great hands, so why not give him a shot over the veteran? That is, if he looks ready. He'll be high on my list of things to pay attention to in the preseason games. I'll be rooting for him. If KC wants that deadly tight end duo that's proven to be so productive in recent years, they'll get it by starting Moeaki and Kelce. Start thinking up good duo nicknames now.

The Report will return soon with more on free agents, draft picks and any other breaking news. Stay tuned.

The # 1 Pick, And What To Make Of It

Another draft has come and gone, and this year KC made top billing in the headlines with their first round pick. With an insanely over-promoted event such as this, it felt like the whole world was waiting with bated breath as the Commish announced Eric Fisher as the #1 overall pick. It was a predictable choice- many assumed Fisher's last few public workouts edged out Joeckel by just enough to ensure the #1 pick. It didn't make anyone in Radio City faint, and it won't be talked about on ESPN like the picks for Geno or Barkley or Tavon Austin. In fact, you probably won't hear Eric Fisher's name on Sportscenter again- until he goes to the Pro Bowl.

The fact is, Tavon Austin will be inflated into an elite, game-changing receiver before he plays a single professional down. The ascension of EJ Manuel and Geno Smith will be fluffed up to represent this year's changing of the guard at QB. They'll both be compared to Luck and RGIII ad infinitum, even though neither one is as talented or NFL-ready as any 1^st round QB pick from last year's draft. But, the fans need their fresh-faced, rookie QBs with something to prove. That story-line needs to exist. Fans have love affairs with QBs and other flashy, dynamic skill-players, so that's what we'll hear about in sports news. They are the celebrities of the sport- the stars that people idolize.

It doesn't matter if Britney Spears ever does anything with artistic value again- if she gets noticed in a gas station wearing an ugly sweater the world will hear about it. The same goes for Tim Tebow. We're going to hear his story until it reaches its bitter, ugly end whether we like it or not. It's the same for any high-profile athlete, with Super Bowl champs and failing underachievers, alike. Just as men across the globe would weep if Christina Hendricks announced a breast reduction, women would die crying if Tom Brady ever shaved his head. I could make comparisons like this all day, but it is starting to confuse the narrative here. My point is, the elite QBs and offensive skill-players get all the media attention, and that's okay. It's just the way media pushes their story-lines forward. It's natural. Sadly though, much as it is in normal life, the people who protect our beloved stars hardly ever get the credit they deserve.

Scouts commonly reported that Eric Fisher is a hard-working lineman- a real blue-collar kind of guy. You may not hear his name much more outside of Kansas City, but he'll be here. He'll be pumping iron and memorizing the playbook and learning this new offense. John Dorsey wanted to find a no-doubter with the #1 overall pick. He wasn't looking for someone to lead the league in headlines, he was looking for someone solid. From the sounds of things so far, solidity is just what he got.

So the news is good, albeit not shocking, but it does lead to some convoluted circumstances for the Chiefs offensive line. There are a bevy of new concerns now, but let's just say they're all good problems to have.

We can assume that Eric Fisher will be a starter this season, probably even in Week 1, but where will he play? The Branden Albert situation is still completely up in the air, even after talks with Miami sounded promising before the draft. It seemed for a moment like the Dolphins would forgo trading picks for Albert and use those picks to snag a top-shelf lineman high in the draft. They ended up improving their defense early, choosing not to draft an OL until Dallas Thomas in the 3^rd round. Sources say Thomas isn't even cut out for playing tackle in the long run- his footwork leaves much to be desired, so he'll inevitably make the move to guard. If there's any interest in a trade for Albert, it will probably still come from Miami. If there isn't, the Chiefs really have Albert by the you-know-whats.

After all his complaining and holding out, this is still a crucial contract year for a weathered veteran that will soon reach his career's downward slope. If he wants any kind of security in his next contract, from the Chiefs or anyone else, he'll play wherever the coach tells him to play. Adam Teicher of the Star predicts that Fisher will start the season playing right tackle, avoiding any drama from Albert. Should the Chiefs really be that concerned on keeping Albert content, though? He's paid his dues, and he's a proven talent at left tackle, but should that stop the organization from putting the team in the best position to win, not to mention putting their #1 overall pick in the best position to properly develop? What it comes down to is this: right now, Fisher>Albert on the field, so Fisher should play where he is at his best. If you think Albert is better suited to cover the blind spot, that's a completely different argument. Fact is, Fisher projects to be better right out of the gate than Branden Albert will be in his 6^th year of service. If that's the case, he should be plugged right into the spot where he'll hopefully dominate for years to come.

Fisher told the press he's willing to play whatever position the Chiefs ask him to play. Albert has often sounded less than ecstatic about the idea of moving from LT. Based on this, a betting man would guess that KC takes the path of least resistance and keeps Albert at his native position. If my sterling advice goes unheralded yet again, I won't lose any sleep over it. The Chiefs O-Line looks excellent on paper, wherever you plug in the pieces. Along with Fisher and Albert, Kansas City has two high-celing linemen from last year's draft, as well as Jon Asamoah and newly acquired Geoff Schwartz. Now, it seems a familiar face may be joining this growing pool of talent.

In the middle of April, rumors started circulating about Ryan Lilja coming out of retirement for a return with the Chiefs. Ryan called it quits last year after five years protecting Peyton Manning and three more with Kansas City. Nobody could blame him for not returning to the same hopeless offense to defend Matt Cassel. Now that things in KC have changed for the better, Lilja's interest has done the same. Word is though, Ryan only wishes to return if he can play his native position- left guard. He continues to recover from knee and toe surgery as well, but he should be healed up in time for the beginning of training camp. If he does return, it adds to an already impressive upgrade for 2013. With Lilja and Albert, it could project to be top 5 or 10 league-wide. Without them both, Schwartz can play either tackle or guard, and the young linemen from last year's draft will get a chance to develop. Really, the worst possible outcome for this year is light-years ahead of last year's best-case scenario. Yet again, that's something for which all Chiefs fans can be excited and appreciative.

UPDATE: Today on Sirius radio, Andy Reid said he would start Albert at left tackle this year, if he was still a member of the team. This post, released this afternoon, explains that Albert might be willing to hold out should the Chiefs push him to right tackle. So yeah, that's one reason to keep him happy. It is a contract year for him, and he seems far less willing to budge from his opinion than Reid. So, barring a trade of some kind, Albert starts at left tackle, with Fisher at right. Like I said- doesn't break my heart at all.

Season Preview- September

Another major moment in the offseason that often goes unmentioned is the release of the new schedule. Sports media gets clogged with Draft Day talk and free agency moves at this time of year. People make plans to watch with friends or family. Folks gather together in crowded bars, watching Draft Day pregame analysis and enjoying Draft Day drink specials. Sadly, no corks were popped for the important announcement of which teams stand in the way of your favorite club's ascension to greatness. Now that fans know who and when they play, the hypothesizing and the fantasizing become all-the-more concrete. Even with the regular season being over four months away, that's still something to appreciate. So, let's run through Kansas City's 2013 schedule. With free agent acquisitions to look at and Draft Day looming near, there are plenty of things to talk about aside from the new schedule, but I'm doing it anyway. So, we'll take it one month at a time, and that means today we'll be looking forward to September.

Before we get started, just let it be known that I reserve the right to change any game predictions I make here, right up until the moment that game begins. Lots of things can happen, and we've got an entire draft yet to come- as if ESPN could possibly let you forget. I promise I'm not especially flip-floppy. I just want to be thorough.

Week 1- Chiefs at Jaguars, September 8^th

The season starts with a real bang as the league's two worst teams clash in Jacksonville. Last year's Jags offense ranks above only the Cardinals and the last-place Chiefs in points scored. With MJD starting only 5 games, their rushing offense was the 3^rd worst league-wide. To top it all off, they couldn't stop anyone on defense, either. Jacksonville allowed the 3^rd most yards and the 3^rd most points in 2012. The only disparaging thing about those statistics are just how similar they are to the Chiefs last season. However, the changes that the Jaguars made do not serve the optimist as well as the changes made in Kansas City. It's reasonable to assume that the Reid-Dorsey rebuilding process will turn out better than.... whatever they're doing down there in Jacksonville. They could have an A+ draft and still be worse on paper than Kansas City is right now.

Prediction: The Chiefs start the season with a comfortable win and a lot of momentum to bring back to Arrowhead.

Week 2- Chiefs vs. Cowboys, September 15^th

This year's home opener should be intriguing and difficult. This is one of many games that will be much easier to decide after the draft. If the Chiefs supplement the secondary with a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick that makes an immediate impact, I may be predicting a win here in the future. Otherwise, it could be too tough to stop last year's 3^rd best passing offense. Andy has plenty of experience coaching against Dallas, but has always struggled to stop Romo and Company from advancing the ball through the air at their leisure.

Prediction: Jamaal should have a good enough outing to slow things down and keep scoring lower than expected. The game will be decided by a key turnover, and unfortunately, it will probably come from a member of Dallas' talented secondary. The Chiefs lose, and the fans have visions in their sleep of all the interceptions from years past. Many awaken in the dead of night, drenched in a cold sweat, rubbing their eyes furiously, trying in vain to erase the blurry images of Steve Bono and Matt Cassel still lingering in their tortured minds. I shudder at the thought.

Week 3- Chiefs at Eagles, September 19^th

This should be interesting. Andy Reid takes his new team to his old home as the Chiefs take on Philadelphia. It's hard to say right now what Chip Kelly will make of the pieces left over from Andy's era, but there is still plenty of talent in Philly right now. Assuming Vick starts next year, the new-look Eagles could be the NFL's equivalent of a Run and Gun offense. A dynamic offense that stretches the field vertically and challenges the edges with rushing speed isn't too hard to imagine. That all sounds great to a starving Eagles fan-base- that is, until their star QB gets hurt, again, and leaves their team to flounder in mediocrity, again.

Prediction: If Vick starts, the Eagles will get off to an early lead. Then, he'll get hurt, and when Nick Foles comes in to make Philly's offense predictable again, KC turns things around for an exciting comeback win on the road. If Vick doesn't start, said predictability from the Eagles offense should allow the Chiefs to outscore Philly for a slightly more comfortable victory.

Week 4- Chiefs vs. Giants, September 29^th

The Giants come into town this fall with a grudge and a lot of previous success. Even in a down year, New York's offense ranked 6^th in 2012. The passing and rushing game ranked 12^th and 13^th respectively, and improving on those stats may prove difficult this year. Without Ahmad Bradshaw, or a clear answer at tight end, New York has a lot of work to do to improve through the draft and free agency. Even with all the changes on the offensive side of the ball, the defense was clearly what kept the G-Men out of the playoffs. They gave up the 5^th most yards through the air and the 8^th most yards through the ground last year. So, does this mean the newly revamped Chiefs offense can edge out an important win against Eli and the Giants?

Prediction: No. It doesn't. The Giants' front office has successfully retooled the team several times to get them well-equipped for a playoff run. They could draft Eifert from Notre Dame to give Eli another legitimate passing threat, or they could improve their defense and return to their former days of defensive dominance. Either way, the staff in New York will do enough to make the team successful, and Eli will have enough firepower to abuse a KC secondary that will inevitably go through some growing pains.

So, according to these very flimsy predictions, the Chiefs end the month with a .500 record, but are winless at Arrowhead. Hopefully, those losing predictions were hogwash, because losing those home games will do little to improve the formerly intimidating crowd factor. On-again, off-again fans of KC football won't see the off-the-field moves that put this team in a great position to be a contender for years to come. They'll see two losses at home, and a lot of sad fans. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and Arrowhead has every reason to explode this September. Sadly, two of the toughest games on the league's 5th-easiest schedule are difficult, early games at home.

Thankfully, winning in October should be much more feasible. With games against the Titans, Raiders and Browns, KC should be turning things around before All Hallow's Eve. Next week, we'll break down all the October match-ups. Stay tuned for more free agent analysis and draft day speculation.

Key Players Re-signed, Part 3- The Silent Weapon

Today, we're talking punters. They're weird, they get made fun of constantly, and they look like fifth-graders compared to the other guys on the field. They're also the most underrated player on the team, without question. Furthermore, the one who plays in KC might just be the team's biggest unspoken hero. The Chiefs won't suck this year, but even if you didn't notice (or care), the Chiefs' punting game has avoided sucking for a long time. Actually, it's been an elite punting squad for nearly a decade now, and we have Dustin Colquitt to thank for it. In 8 years with the Chiefs, the Pro Bowler has been consistently clutch, and that kind of performance in crucial situations might give KC the edge they need to reach the playoffs.

Colquitt ranks in the top ten for the last two seasons in net punt yardage. He is also second league-wide in punts within the 20 yard-line and return yards from punts. Statistics can't tell the whole story with a valuable punter, though. It's a very weird, very situational position. Although they're often punchlines in the locker room, a good punter gives his team valuable yardage in crucial moments, every single game of the season. I wouldn't hesitate to call that clutch. In this upcoming year, KC is playing for a playoff berth instead of playing for the sake of avoiding embarrassment. If the season goes well, winning the field position battle could earn them a Wild Card spot. To me, that makes the penning of this 5 year, $18.75 million contract well worth it.

At $3.75 million per year, Colquitt now has the highest average salary of any punter in the league. For the record, that puts his annual wages just a shade above that of backup QB, Chase Daniel. Chase, who has never started a game in his 3 seasons behind Drew Brees, was signed for 3 years/$10 million to almost assuredly hold the clipboard this year, yet Colquitt, the veteran Pro Bowler and special teams MVP, earns about $425,000 more each year. Poor punters.

Key Players Re-signed, Part 2- Struggling With Commitment

Clark Hunt, Andy Reid and John Dorsey, who will hitherto be referred to as Clark and Company, agreed to use the Chief's franchise tag promptly this year. In order to solidify the offensive line, they applied it to Pro Bowl tackle, Branden Albert. Was this the right decision? Could more be done with the tag? How does this influence draft day? And, first off, does having a great offensive line really matter in this era of football? Let's (try to) find out.

The value of an elite offensive line is highly debatable these days. With agile QBs taking over the league, the effect of an unstoppable O-Line may be more diminished than ever before. In fact, according to Advanced NFL Stats, 3 teams made the playoffs with top-ten lines last year, but 3 teams with offensive lines ranking in the bottom-ten also made the playoffs, including the Super Bowl Champion Ravens.

For the record, two of the teams that made the playoffs with bad offensive lines (Seattle and Washington) are led by two of the most athletic quarterbacks ever to play the position. However, Baltimore's line ranked second to last in the league, behind only Pittsburgh, and they won the Lombardi trophy with a kinda-sorta-mobile QB in Joey Flacco. I mention this because Alex Smith is considered by most to be more mobile than Flacco. It's also worth noting that the Ravens passed the ball on 56% of there snaps, whereas both the Redskins and Seahawks threw less than 47% of the time. Even with an incompetent passing game and an offense built around Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs passed on 49% of their offensive possessions last year. With an offensive makeover performed by a pass-friendly veteran coach, the 2013 Chiefs should have a similar passing percentage with similar QB mobility as the 2012 Champion Ravens.

Does this mean KC should avoid using their resources to upgrade the offensive line? No- not when you look at the team's other choices for the franchise tag. The list of other unrestricted free agents is highlighted by Peyton Hillis, Steve Breaston and Matt Cassel. While it would be advantageous to get more value out of your franchise tag than re-hiring an offensive lineman, the Chiefs truly had nothing better to do with it. Would you rather hold onto Breaston for $10.5 million? How about retaining Andy Studebaker for $9.6 million? No way. So KC holds onto its most valuable UFA, he signs the contract and the deal is done.....which would all just be grand, if it actually meant that Albert would be playing here in 2013. Unfortunately, this is not the end of the story.

Albert now stands as a holdout. He is currently the only Chief on the roster not attending the first phase of Andy Reid's new voluntary off-season program. Instead, he waits for KC to offer him a long-term contract, or find a worthwhile deal with another team to send Albert elsewhere. The 28 year old lineman is telling the press he wants a longer commitment before showing up to camp. On NFL AM, Albert said "Until I know my situation with certainty I'm going to stay away." He went on to tell the media that he's unsure of what he'll do when the mandatory program begins.

The Chiefs have from now until then (with "Phase Three" workouts beginning May 14) to either come to terms with their veteran lineman or find an suitable trade offer. It's at that point when things start looking ugly and the team has the right to start fining Albert for every day he misses. On March 22^nd, ESPN's Adam Schefter tweeted that KC was “seeking a second-round pick in this year's draft as well as another pick in 2014 in a trade for franchise OT Branden Albert.” Judging from the rumors that are swirling around at this point, Miami seems to be the most viable, if not the only, team interested in that deal. Clark and Company have moved swiftly thus far with major, team-changing decisions, so for all we know, a deal could be made tomorrow. However, the upcoming draft, and the Chiefs' position therein, play a key role in determining Albert's worth to the organization.

If the team trades Albert, it would be almost obvious to go with a highly-regarded lineman like Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher with the first pick, especially since KC has already parted ways with another seasoned lineman in Eric Winston. But, the Chiefs have until prime-time on April 25^th to probe and evaluate and analyze and make damn sure they don't use the #1 overall pick on an overrated offensive lineman. Maybe they fall in love with Fisher or Joeckel. Maybe they retain Albert and decide to upgrade defensively through the draft, instead. Maybe they decide to trade down for more value. There is plenty of time left until draft day to evaluate the numerous options, and it would seem wise to use however much is necessary to get the best deal possible. They would gladly take the previously mentioned original asking price for Albert if someone offered, but it sounds like even Miami would try their best to talk the Chiefs down from that original ask.

Whichever way the Branden Albert situation gets sorted out will define KC's role in the upcoming draft. With the QB situation seemingly solidified and many flawed positions filled with talent from free agency, this signing (or lack thereof) could be the final deciding factor for how KC uses that first overall pick. Things will be much more clear once we know whether or not the Chiefs will need to upgrade the O-Line- to the point where KC's choice could be made very simple by the situation at hand. RGR will be here to report any news on the matter, so we can then make the next step in pondering our draft day fantasies. Stay tuned for any major breaking news, and check in later this week for more analysis of this year's off-season signings.

Key Players Re-signed, Part 1- Dwayne Bowe

The Chiefs successfully retained the bulk of their passing potency from years prior by signing Dwayne Bowe to a long and expensive contract last month. Today, I'll do my best to determine whether or not these huge figures in the new contract are worth what the Chiefs will get back in production for the next five years.

There are two completely different ways to think about whether or not this deal was “worth it”- probably more, really, but I'll stick with these two overlying ideas. First, we can compare the money he earned to other receivers with similar offensive production. Secondly, we can hypothesize about the figures of that contract and what else the Chiefs would have done with that cash. Basically, we can ask what Bowe is worth on the NFL market, or we can ask what he is worth to the Chiefs.

First things first- this new contract keeps the Bowe Show in KC through 2017 for an average of $11.2 million per year. This is the 4^th highest average salary for WRs in the league, behind only Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Wallace. All three of these receivers outrank Bowe in win probability added, yards per reception, yards per target, overall yards, receptions and touchdowns last year. Other receivers like Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Wes Welker show more value over time as well, with Bowe sitting comfortably outside the top 25 in many important stats. Andre Johnson has a similar, but more affordable contract at 7 years for $67.8 million, which averages to about $9.5 million. He dominates Bowe statistically every year. Wes Welker is making only $6 million a year in Denver, and most would think of him as a more valuable asset than Bowe on every single Sunday. Roddy White may be the most dangerous receiver since Randy Moss in his prime, and he makes little over $7.1 million a year.

Unfortunately, comparing Dwayne Bowe's production to that of other receivers is difficult. Sure, with a bevy of marginally talented QBs and a run-oriented offense, 82's numbers don't look impressive. Would anyone's? While Roddy White has Matt Ryan throwing perfectly paced bombs to him and Megatron is constantly targeted by Matt Stafford, Bowe spent years struggling to compete with a uninspiring combination of Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard and Tyler [expletive removed] Palko. Those numbers are skewed, whichever way you look at them. Many experts around the league regard Bowe as a top-tier receiver stuck in an unfortunate situation. Now that this new regime has upgraded its offense, and most importantly improved at QB, the 2013 Chiefs will give Bowe the opportunity to put up top-tier numbers, as well. Alex Smith won't need to be Tom Brady to let Bowe fulfill his potential. He just needs to avoid being as bad as Cassel, which should be simple enough.

But, even with a reliable passer behind center, can Chiefs fans really expect the Bowe Show to deliver in the same way as a Calvin Johnson or a Roddy White? Since it's never been witnessed, it's difficult to say, but it's also not easy to imagine Bowe cutting his drops in half or doubling his total season yardage by shifting from Cassel to Smith (and from Crennel to Reid). When you compare his projected output to his massive contract, those figures still look inflated. However, upon further analysis of other WR contracts signed this offseason, Bowe's deal doesn't seem so outrageous after all.

At 29 years old, Greg Jennings signed with Minnesota for $9 million a year for five years. Most of Greg's stats are marginally less impressive than Bowe's, and he has Aaron Rodgers passing him the ball. If you ask me, $2.2 million a year is worth it for a way higher ceiling and another year of playing at his prime. Mike Wallace signed with Miami this year for 5 years and $60 million, but many see this as another misstep by the infamously misguided Dolphins organization. Wallace is known as a speedster and a deep threat, but like a Donnie Avery or Randy Moss, he offers little else. Bowe offers a variety of ways to disrupt a defense, and he also isn't scared to block or use his size to his advantage. With all the miscalculations in the Chiefs' past, it wouldn't be hard to envision KC overpaying by hiring Wallace to a huge contract in a failed attempt to replace the presence of #82 on offense. So, when you consider the figures of Bowe's contract in comparison to others this year, it seems to fit the bill for current market value.

Now, we have to consider what Bowe's presence or the lack thereof would mean to the Chiefs offense in 2013. Bowe has led the Chiefs in receptions every year since 2008, when Tony Gonzales last wore the red and gold. Since the team is projected to be far more pass-friendly, losing a receiver of his caliber would inevitably mean signing another talented, expensive WR to fill the void. The aforementioned deals with Jennings and Wallace wouldn't fit for KC, and neither of those free agents would provide a comparable combination of size, strength and speed. Bowe isn't just a deep threat like Avery or Wallace, and he sure as hell isn't just a slot receiver like Welker or Amendola. He's a large wide-out that gets open from a variety of different routes. Jon Baldwin has done nothing to prove he's ready to step up, and McCluster is like the polar opposite style of receiver. Shockingly, it seems that the only man who can fill Dwayne Bowe's role on this team is Dwayne Bowe.

All in all, you can't fault the Chiefs for signing easily their best receiver to a long-term deal, even if you think he's somewhat overpriced. In the current market, this deal is far from a bargain, but it's not highway robbery, either. It hasn't bankrupted the team, and it hasn't stopped Clark from picking up legitimate, high-priced talent through free agency, so who can argue? If this deal stopped KC from improving the team in other ways, there could be some complaint here. Fact is, under its new counseling, the organization is spending whatever it takes to make the team competitive, at the very least. Since re-signing Bowe did not impede our ability to move forward with success, it would seem ignorant to criticize. That is, unless you still think of him as the brash, cocky, big-mouthed youngster that he used to be. Many will always think of Bowe in that vein, but for the past few years, Dwayne has been a studious, hard-working player who is respected and even liked by his teammates. If you can keep those aging quotes of braggadocian immaturity in the past where they belong, just as he has, you should be excited by the news of his re-signing.

Later on in the week, RGR will take a closer look at Brandon Albert, and the effect that franchise-tagging this elite, veteran lineman will have on our new-look Chiefs in 2013. Stay tuned.