A Hopeful Home Opener Preview

On my list of least likable NFL teams, the over-hyped and under-performing Dallas Cowboys would have to rank 3^rd overall. Since the Raiders are presumably still a joke and we don't play Cincinnati this year, this Sunday will yield for me the most enjoyment I can attain from hating someone for this entire season. Let us revel in communal disgust as we discuss this upcoming Chiefs home opener.

Last year, Dallas' offensive line ranked 22^nd in the league in run blocking and 11^th in pass protection. This year, they've added two new linemen to the starting offense that have zero combined snaps in the NFL prior to last Sunday. DeMarco Murray ran the ball 20 times for 86 yards last week against the Giants. That's not an outstanding performance, nor is it an embarrassment, especially considering that the Cowboys held on for a week 1 victory. MJD's production last week? That was embarrassing.

Maurice Jones-Drew played his 100^th game and carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards, averaging 3 yards per rush. MJD was only held to a lower yard-per-carry average once in the two previous seasons. For the record, Jacksonville's offensive line ranked 17^th in run blocking last year, and with the addition of the almost-1^st overall draft pick Luke Joeckel, they're sure to rank higher in 2013.

The Cowboys will presumably counter the Chiefs' strength in stopping the run by bringing a pass-heavy offensive plan to Arrowhead this week. Romo, who is currently listed as probable for Sunday's game, completed 73.5% of his passes last week against a solid defense. He only averaged 5.4 yards per catch though, which is the lowest average he's ever recorded in a game with at least 4 completions.

The Chiefs, with an uber-athletic secondary that knows how to tackle in the open field, will hope to keep this trend going. If last week's performance is any indication of their chances, their chances look pretty damn good. Just don't forget that those numbers are artificially inflated by Jacksonville's overall crappiness. Gabbert completed 16 of 35 passes. That's less than a 46% completion percentage. He played so poorly, in fact, that he lost his job; Chad Henne will start for the Jags this week against Oakland. Bob Sutton should probably send him some kind of classy fruit basket.

The chess-match was totally dominated by Sutton last Sunday. 3 sacks by future-perennial-Pro Bowler Justin Houston and constant pressure on the quarterback will prove that as coaches review the game tape this week. Not only were Chiefs consistently getting behind enemy lines, they were often doing so untouched.

But how will the Chiefs' offense fare against the Cowboy's D? Feel free to use Wednesday's post for reference, keeping in mind the aforementioned bad-team-based inflation. Dallas gave up 450 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air last week. While Eli>Alex Smith, it's not by a lot, and I'm slowly starting to believe the hype that this offense could be at least as good as New York's. Dallas held the Giants' running backs to 42 yards in 12 carries, but they'll have a wholly different monster to deal with when it comes to Jamaal. My faith will always be with #25. Until Demarcus Ware eats him.

Here are my five predictions for Sunday's home-opener-

1- KC doubles New York's yardage output from last week. That means 84 yards, at least. The offense surprised me last week with a somewhat balance run/pass ratio, so I expect Charles to get significant touches to keep the second level of the Dallas D on their toes. An emerging group of talented receivers will spread the defense out enough for Jamaal to slash and burn as only he can.

2- Romo's completion percentage will drop by at least 8 points, thanks to some applied pressure from KC linebackers.

3- Hali and Houston get at least a sack each, as Dallas struggles to decide which side of the line they should stack.

4- Kansas City earns 25 more yards with kickoff and punt returns than Dallas, as Ryan Succop begins his season without a miss. That's a prediction twofer right there. Lucky you.

5- I'm going to be a downer with my first call of the season, but only for the sake of the unknown. We really have no idea how this offense will react to a better defense, or how this defense will react to a real quarterback. I'm going to guess that the Chiefs will compete, but ultimately get outgunned at home. Chiefs lose, 27-24, and curb the enthusiasm of this tense, excited fan-base just a little bit. It may be disappointing, but unless it's a blowout it won't be enough to stop us from daydreaming about the playoffs. It should be “dropped your beer in the stands” disappointing, not “dropped your heart medicine in the ocean” disappointing. Still, nobody enjoys spilling their beer, so let's all hope I'm dead wrong.

The # 1 Pick, And What To Make Of It

Another draft has come and gone, and this year KC made top billing in the headlines with their first round pick. With an insanely over-promoted event such as this, it felt like the whole world was waiting with bated breath as the Commish announced Eric Fisher as the #1 overall pick. It was a predictable choice- many assumed Fisher's last few public workouts edged out Joeckel by just enough to ensure the #1 pick. It didn't make anyone in Radio City faint, and it won't be talked about on ESPN like the picks for Geno or Barkley or Tavon Austin. In fact, you probably won't hear Eric Fisher's name on Sportscenter again- until he goes to the Pro Bowl.

The fact is, Tavon Austin will be inflated into an elite, game-changing receiver before he plays a single professional down. The ascension of EJ Manuel and Geno Smith will be fluffed up to represent this year's changing of the guard at QB. They'll both be compared to Luck and RGIII ad infinitum, even though neither one is as talented or NFL-ready as any 1^st round QB pick from last year's draft. But, the fans need their fresh-faced, rookie QBs with something to prove. That story-line needs to exist. Fans have love affairs with QBs and other flashy, dynamic skill-players, so that's what we'll hear about in sports news. They are the celebrities of the sport- the stars that people idolize.

It doesn't matter if Britney Spears ever does anything with artistic value again- if she gets noticed in a gas station wearing an ugly sweater the world will hear about it. The same goes for Tim Tebow. We're going to hear his story until it reaches its bitter, ugly end whether we like it or not. It's the same for any high-profile athlete, with Super Bowl champs and failing underachievers, alike. Just as men across the globe would weep if Christina Hendricks announced a breast reduction, women would die crying if Tom Brady ever shaved his head. I could make comparisons like this all day, but it is starting to confuse the narrative here. My point is, the elite QBs and offensive skill-players get all the media attention, and that's okay. It's just the way media pushes their story-lines forward. It's natural. Sadly though, much as it is in normal life, the people who protect our beloved stars hardly ever get the credit they deserve.

Scouts commonly reported that Eric Fisher is a hard-working lineman- a real blue-collar kind of guy. You may not hear his name much more outside of Kansas City, but he'll be here. He'll be pumping iron and memorizing the playbook and learning this new offense. John Dorsey wanted to find a no-doubter with the #1 overall pick. He wasn't looking for someone to lead the league in headlines, he was looking for someone solid. From the sounds of things so far, solidity is just what he got.

So the news is good, albeit not shocking, but it does lead to some convoluted circumstances for the Chiefs offensive line. There are a bevy of new concerns now, but let's just say they're all good problems to have.

We can assume that Eric Fisher will be a starter this season, probably even in Week 1, but where will he play? The Branden Albert situation is still completely up in the air, even after talks with Miami sounded promising before the draft. It seemed for a moment like the Dolphins would forgo trading picks for Albert and use those picks to snag a top-shelf lineman high in the draft. They ended up improving their defense early, choosing not to draft an OL until Dallas Thomas in the 3^rd round. Sources say Thomas isn't even cut out for playing tackle in the long run- his footwork leaves much to be desired, so he'll inevitably make the move to guard. If there's any interest in a trade for Albert, it will probably still come from Miami. If there isn't, the Chiefs really have Albert by the you-know-whats.

After all his complaining and holding out, this is still a crucial contract year for a weathered veteran that will soon reach his career's downward slope. If he wants any kind of security in his next contract, from the Chiefs or anyone else, he'll play wherever the coach tells him to play. Adam Teicher of the Star predicts that Fisher will start the season playing right tackle, avoiding any drama from Albert. Should the Chiefs really be that concerned on keeping Albert content, though? He's paid his dues, and he's a proven talent at left tackle, but should that stop the organization from putting the team in the best position to win, not to mention putting their #1 overall pick in the best position to properly develop? What it comes down to is this: right now, Fisher>Albert on the field, so Fisher should play where he is at his best. If you think Albert is better suited to cover the blind spot, that's a completely different argument. Fact is, Fisher projects to be better right out of the gate than Branden Albert will be in his 6^th year of service. If that's the case, he should be plugged right into the spot where he'll hopefully dominate for years to come.

Fisher told the press he's willing to play whatever position the Chiefs ask him to play. Albert has often sounded less than ecstatic about the idea of moving from LT. Based on this, a betting man would guess that KC takes the path of least resistance and keeps Albert at his native position. If my sterling advice goes unheralded yet again, I won't lose any sleep over it. The Chiefs O-Line looks excellent on paper, wherever you plug in the pieces. Along with Fisher and Albert, Kansas City has two high-celing linemen from last year's draft, as well as Jon Asamoah and newly acquired Geoff Schwartz. Now, it seems a familiar face may be joining this growing pool of talent.

In the middle of April, rumors started circulating about Ryan Lilja coming out of retirement for a return with the Chiefs. Ryan called it quits last year after five years protecting Peyton Manning and three more with Kansas City. Nobody could blame him for not returning to the same hopeless offense to defend Matt Cassel. Now that things in KC have changed for the better, Lilja's interest has done the same. Word is though, Ryan only wishes to return if he can play his native position- left guard. He continues to recover from knee and toe surgery as well, but he should be healed up in time for the beginning of training camp. If he does return, it adds to an already impressive upgrade for 2013. With Lilja and Albert, it could project to be top 5 or 10 league-wide. Without them both, Schwartz can play either tackle or guard, and the young linemen from last year's draft will get a chance to develop. Really, the worst possible outcome for this year is light-years ahead of last year's best-case scenario. Yet again, that's something for which all Chiefs fans can be excited and appreciative.

UPDATE: Today on Sirius radio, Andy Reid said he would start Albert at left tackle this year, if he was still a member of the team. This post, released this afternoon, explains that Albert might be willing to hold out should the Chiefs push him to right tackle. So yeah, that's one reason to keep him happy. It is a contract year for him, and he seems far less willing to budge from his opinion than Reid. So, barring a trade of some kind, Albert starts at left tackle, with Fisher at right. Like I said- doesn't break my heart at all.