The Chiefs successfully retained the
bulk of their passing potency from years prior by signing Dwayne Bowe
to a long and expensive contract last month. Today, I'll do my best
to determine whether or not these huge figures in the new contract
are worth what the Chiefs will get back in production for the next
five years.
There are two completely different ways
to think about whether or not this deal was “worth it”- probably
more, really, but I'll stick with these two overlying ideas. First,
we can compare the money he earned to other receivers with similar
offensive production. Secondly, we can hypothesize about the figures
of that contract and what else the Chiefs would have done with that
cash. Basically, we can ask what Bowe is worth on the NFL market, or
we can ask what he is worth to the Chiefs.
First things first- this new contract
keeps the Bowe Show in KC through 2017 for an average of $11.2
million per year. This is the 4th highest average salary
for WRs in the league, behind only Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald
and Mike Wallace. All three of these receivers outrank Bowe in win
probability added, yards per reception, yards per target, overall
yards, receptions and touchdowns last year. Other receivers like
Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Wes Welker show more value over time
as well, with Bowe sitting comfortably outside the top 25 in many
important stats. Andre Johnson has a similar, but more affordable
contract at 7 years for $67.8 million, which averages to about $9.5
million. He dominates Bowe statistically every year. Wes Welker is
making only $6 million a year in Denver, and most would think of him
as a more valuable asset than Bowe on every single Sunday. Roddy
White may be the most dangerous receiver since Randy Moss in his
prime, and he makes little over $7.1 million a year.
Unfortunately, comparing Dwayne Bowe's
production to that of other receivers is difficult. Sure, with a bevy
of marginally talented QBs and a run-oriented offense, 82's numbers
don't look impressive. Would anyone's? While Roddy White has Matt
Ryan throwing perfectly paced bombs to him and Megatron is constantly
targeted by Matt Stafford, Bowe spent years struggling to compete
with a uninspiring combination of Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, Brady
Quinn, Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard and Tyler [expletive removed]
Palko. Those numbers are skewed, whichever way you look at them. Many
experts around the league regard Bowe as a top-tier receiver stuck in
an unfortunate situation. Now that this new regime has upgraded its
offense, and most importantly improved at QB, the 2013 Chiefs will
give Bowe the opportunity to put up top-tier numbers, as well. Alex
Smith won't need to be Tom Brady to let Bowe fulfill his potential.
He just needs to avoid being as bad as Cassel, which should be simple
enough.
But, even with a reliable passer behind
center, can Chiefs fans really expect the Bowe Show to deliver in the
same way as a Calvin Johnson or a Roddy White? Since it's never been
witnessed, it's difficult to say, but it's also not easy to imagine
Bowe cutting his drops in half or doubling his total season yardage
by shifting from Cassel to Smith (and from Crennel to Reid). When you
compare his projected output to his massive contract, those figures
still look inflated. However, upon further analysis of other WR
contracts signed this offseason, Bowe's deal doesn't seem so
outrageous after all.
At 29 years old, Greg Jennings signed
with Minnesota for $9 million a year for five years. Most of Greg's
stats are marginally less impressive than Bowe's, and he has Aaron
Rodgers passing him the ball. If you ask me, $2.2 million a year is
worth it for a way higher ceiling and another year of playing at his
prime. Mike Wallace signed with Miami this year for 5 years and $60
million, but many see this as another misstep by the infamously
misguided Dolphins organization. Wallace is known as a speedster and
a deep threat, but like a Donnie Avery or Randy Moss, he offers
little else. Bowe offers a variety of ways to disrupt a defense, and
he also isn't scared to block or use his size to his advantage. With
all the miscalculations in the Chiefs' past, it wouldn't be hard to
envision KC overpaying by hiring Wallace to a huge contract in a
failed attempt to replace the presence of #82 on offense. So, when
you consider the figures of Bowe's contract in comparison to others
this year, it seems to fit the bill for current market value.
Now, we have to consider what Bowe's
presence or the lack thereof would mean to the Chiefs offense in
2013. Bowe has led the Chiefs in receptions every year since 2008,
when Tony Gonzales last wore the red and gold. Since the team is
projected to be far more pass-friendly, losing a receiver of his
caliber would inevitably mean signing another talented, expensive WR
to fill the void. The aforementioned deals with Jennings and Wallace
wouldn't fit for KC, and neither of those free agents would provide a
comparable combination of size, strength and speed. Bowe isn't just a
deep threat like Avery or Wallace, and he sure as hell isn't just a
slot receiver like Welker or Amendola. He's a large wide-out that gets
open from a variety of different routes. Jon Baldwin has done nothing
to prove he's ready to step up, and McCluster is like the polar
opposite style of receiver. Shockingly, it seems that the only man
who can fill Dwayne Bowe's role on this team is Dwayne Bowe.
All in all, you can't fault the Chiefs
for signing easily their best receiver to a long-term deal, even if
you think he's somewhat overpriced. In the current market, this deal
is far from a bargain, but it's not highway robbery, either. It
hasn't bankrupted the team, and it hasn't stopped Clark from picking
up legitimate, high-priced talent through free agency, so who can
argue? If this deal stopped KC from improving the team in other ways,
there could be some complaint here. Fact is, under its new
counseling, the organization is spending whatever it takes to make
the team competitive, at the very least. Since re-signing Bowe did
not impede our ability to move forward with success, it would seem
ignorant to criticize. That is, unless you still think of him as the
brash, cocky, big-mouthed youngster that he used to be. Many will
always think of Bowe in that vein, but for the past few years, Dwayne
has been a studious, hard-working player who is respected and even
liked by his teammates. If you can keep those aging quotes of
braggadocian immaturity in the past where they belong, just as he
has, you should be excited by the news of his re-signing.
Later on in the week, RGR will take a
closer look at Brandon Albert, and the effect that franchise-tagging
this elite, veteran lineman will have on our new-look Chiefs in 2013.
Stay tuned.
