Key Players Re-signed, Part 2- Struggling With Commitment

Clark Hunt, Andy Reid and John Dorsey, who will hitherto be referred to as Clark and Company, agreed to use the Chief's franchise tag promptly this year. In order to solidify the offensive line, they applied it to Pro Bowl tackle, Branden Albert. Was this the right decision? Could more be done with the tag? How does this influence draft day? And, first off, does having a great offensive line really matter in this era of football? Let's (try to) find out.

The value of an elite offensive line is highly debatable these days. With agile QBs taking over the league, the effect of an unstoppable O-Line may be more diminished than ever before. In fact, according to Advanced NFL Stats, 3 teams made the playoffs with top-ten lines last year, but 3 teams with offensive lines ranking in the bottom-ten also made the playoffs, including the Super Bowl Champion Ravens.

For the record, two of the teams that made the playoffs with bad offensive lines (Seattle and Washington) are led by two of the most athletic quarterbacks ever to play the position. However, Baltimore's line ranked second to last in the league, behind only Pittsburgh, and they won the Lombardi trophy with a kinda-sorta-mobile QB in Joey Flacco. I mention this because Alex Smith is considered by most to be more mobile than Flacco. It's also worth noting that the Ravens passed the ball on 56% of there snaps, whereas both the Redskins and Seahawks threw less than 47% of the time. Even with an incompetent passing game and an offense built around Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs passed on 49% of their offensive possessions last year. With an offensive makeover performed by a pass-friendly veteran coach, the 2013 Chiefs should have a similar passing percentage with similar QB mobility as the 2012 Champion Ravens.

Does this mean KC should avoid using their resources to upgrade the offensive line? No- not when you look at the team's other choices for the franchise tag. The list of other unrestricted free agents is highlighted by Peyton Hillis, Steve Breaston and Matt Cassel. While it would be advantageous to get more value out of your franchise tag than re-hiring an offensive lineman, the Chiefs truly had nothing better to do with it. Would you rather hold onto Breaston for $10.5 million? How about retaining Andy Studebaker for $9.6 million? No way. So KC holds onto its most valuable UFA, he signs the contract and the deal is done.....which would all just be grand, if it actually meant that Albert would be playing here in 2013. Unfortunately, this is not the end of the story.

Albert now stands as a holdout. He is currently the only Chief on the roster not attending the first phase of Andy Reid's new voluntary off-season program. Instead, he waits for KC to offer him a long-term contract, or find a worthwhile deal with another team to send Albert elsewhere. The 28 year old lineman is telling the press he wants a longer commitment before showing up to camp. On NFL AM, Albert said "Until I know my situation with certainty I'm going to stay away." He went on to tell the media that he's unsure of what he'll do when the mandatory program begins.

The Chiefs have from now until then (with "Phase Three" workouts beginning May 14) to either come to terms with their veteran lineman or find an suitable trade offer. It's at that point when things start looking ugly and the team has the right to start fining Albert for every day he misses. On March 22^nd, ESPN's Adam Schefter tweeted that KC was “seeking a second-round pick in this year's draft as well as another pick in 2014 in a trade for franchise OT Branden Albert.” Judging from the rumors that are swirling around at this point, Miami seems to be the most viable, if not the only, team interested in that deal. Clark and Company have moved swiftly thus far with major, team-changing decisions, so for all we know, a deal could be made tomorrow. However, the upcoming draft, and the Chiefs' position therein, play a key role in determining Albert's worth to the organization.

If the team trades Albert, it would be almost obvious to go with a highly-regarded lineman like Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher with the first pick, especially since KC has already parted ways with another seasoned lineman in Eric Winston. But, the Chiefs have until prime-time on April 25^th to probe and evaluate and analyze and make damn sure they don't use the #1 overall pick on an overrated offensive lineman. Maybe they fall in love with Fisher or Joeckel. Maybe they retain Albert and decide to upgrade defensively through the draft, instead. Maybe they decide to trade down for more value. There is plenty of time left until draft day to evaluate the numerous options, and it would seem wise to use however much is necessary to get the best deal possible. They would gladly take the previously mentioned original asking price for Albert if someone offered, but it sounds like even Miami would try their best to talk the Chiefs down from that original ask.

Whichever way the Branden Albert situation gets sorted out will define KC's role in the upcoming draft. With the QB situation seemingly solidified and many flawed positions filled with talent from free agency, this signing (or lack thereof) could be the final deciding factor for how KC uses that first overall pick. Things will be much more clear once we know whether or not the Chiefs will need to upgrade the O-Line- to the point where KC's choice could be made very simple by the situation at hand. RGR will be here to report any news on the matter, so we can then make the next step in pondering our draft day fantasies. Stay tuned for any major breaking news, and check in later this week for more analysis of this year's off-season signings.

Key Players Re-signed, Part 1- Dwayne Bowe

The Chiefs successfully retained the bulk of their passing potency from years prior by signing Dwayne Bowe to a long and expensive contract last month. Today, I'll do my best to determine whether or not these huge figures in the new contract are worth what the Chiefs will get back in production for the next five years.

There are two completely different ways to think about whether or not this deal was “worth it”- probably more, really, but I'll stick with these two overlying ideas. First, we can compare the money he earned to other receivers with similar offensive production. Secondly, we can hypothesize about the figures of that contract and what else the Chiefs would have done with that cash. Basically, we can ask what Bowe is worth on the NFL market, or we can ask what he is worth to the Chiefs.

First things first- this new contract keeps the Bowe Show in KC through 2017 for an average of $11.2 million per year. This is the 4^th highest average salary for WRs in the league, behind only Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Wallace. All three of these receivers outrank Bowe in win probability added, yards per reception, yards per target, overall yards, receptions and touchdowns last year. Other receivers like Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Wes Welker show more value over time as well, with Bowe sitting comfortably outside the top 25 in many important stats. Andre Johnson has a similar, but more affordable contract at 7 years for $67.8 million, which averages to about $9.5 million. He dominates Bowe statistically every year. Wes Welker is making only $6 million a year in Denver, and most would think of him as a more valuable asset than Bowe on every single Sunday. Roddy White may be the most dangerous receiver since Randy Moss in his prime, and he makes little over $7.1 million a year.

Unfortunately, comparing Dwayne Bowe's production to that of other receivers is difficult. Sure, with a bevy of marginally talented QBs and a run-oriented offense, 82's numbers don't look impressive. Would anyone's? While Roddy White has Matt Ryan throwing perfectly paced bombs to him and Megatron is constantly targeted by Matt Stafford, Bowe spent years struggling to compete with a uninspiring combination of Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard and Tyler [expletive removed] Palko. Those numbers are skewed, whichever way you look at them. Many experts around the league regard Bowe as a top-tier receiver stuck in an unfortunate situation. Now that this new regime has upgraded its offense, and most importantly improved at QB, the 2013 Chiefs will give Bowe the opportunity to put up top-tier numbers, as well. Alex Smith won't need to be Tom Brady to let Bowe fulfill his potential. He just needs to avoid being as bad as Cassel, which should be simple enough.

But, even with a reliable passer behind center, can Chiefs fans really expect the Bowe Show to deliver in the same way as a Calvin Johnson or a Roddy White? Since it's never been witnessed, it's difficult to say, but it's also not easy to imagine Bowe cutting his drops in half or doubling his total season yardage by shifting from Cassel to Smith (and from Crennel to Reid). When you compare his projected output to his massive contract, those figures still look inflated. However, upon further analysis of other WR contracts signed this offseason, Bowe's deal doesn't seem so outrageous after all.

At 29 years old, Greg Jennings signed with Minnesota for $9 million a year for five years. Most of Greg's stats are marginally less impressive than Bowe's, and he has Aaron Rodgers passing him the ball. If you ask me, $2.2 million a year is worth it for a way higher ceiling and another year of playing at his prime. Mike Wallace signed with Miami this year for 5 years and $60 million, but many see this as another misstep by the infamously misguided Dolphins organization. Wallace is known as a speedster and a deep threat, but like a Donnie Avery or Randy Moss, he offers little else. Bowe offers a variety of ways to disrupt a defense, and he also isn't scared to block or use his size to his advantage. With all the miscalculations in the Chiefs' past, it wouldn't be hard to envision KC overpaying by hiring Wallace to a huge contract in a failed attempt to replace the presence of #82 on offense. So, when you consider the figures of Bowe's contract in comparison to others this year, it seems to fit the bill for current market value.

Now, we have to consider what Bowe's presence or the lack thereof would mean to the Chiefs offense in 2013. Bowe has led the Chiefs in receptions every year since 2008, when Tony Gonzales last wore the red and gold. Since the team is projected to be far more pass-friendly, losing a receiver of his caliber would inevitably mean signing another talented, expensive WR to fill the void. The aforementioned deals with Jennings and Wallace wouldn't fit for KC, and neither of those free agents would provide a comparable combination of size, strength and speed. Bowe isn't just a deep threat like Avery or Wallace, and he sure as hell isn't just a slot receiver like Welker or Amendola. He's a large wide-out that gets open from a variety of different routes. Jon Baldwin has done nothing to prove he's ready to step up, and McCluster is like the polar opposite style of receiver. Shockingly, it seems that the only man who can fill Dwayne Bowe's role on this team is Dwayne Bowe.

All in all, you can't fault the Chiefs for signing easily their best receiver to a long-term deal, even if you think he's somewhat overpriced. In the current market, this deal is far from a bargain, but it's not highway robbery, either. It hasn't bankrupted the team, and it hasn't stopped Clark from picking up legitimate, high-priced talent through free agency, so who can argue? If this deal stopped KC from improving the team in other ways, there could be some complaint here. Fact is, under its new counseling, the organization is spending whatever it takes to make the team competitive, at the very least. Since re-signing Bowe did not impede our ability to move forward with success, it would seem ignorant to criticize. That is, unless you still think of him as the brash, cocky, big-mouthed youngster that he used to be. Many will always think of Bowe in that vein, but for the past few years, Dwayne has been a studious, hard-working player who is respected and even liked by his teammates. If you can keep those aging quotes of braggadocian immaturity in the past where they belong, just as he has, you should be excited by the news of his re-signing.

Later on in the week, RGR will take a closer look at Brandon Albert, and the effect that franchise-tagging this elite, veteran lineman will have on our new-look Chiefs in 2013. Stay tuned.