Showing posts with label clark hunt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label clark hunt. Show all posts

Sunday, April 7, 2013

Key Players Re-signed, Part 2- Struggling With Commitment



Clark Hunt, Andy Reid and John Dorsey, who will hitherto be referred to as Clark and Company, agreed to use the Chief's franchise tag promptly this year. In order to solidify the offensive line, they applied it to Pro Bowl tackle, Branden Albert. Was this the right decision? Could more be done with the tag? How does this influence draft day? And, first off, does having a great offensive line really matter in this era of football? Let's (try to) find out.

The value of an elite offensive line is highly debatable these days. With agile QBs taking over the league, the effect of an unstoppable O-Line may be more diminished than ever before. In fact, according to Advanced NFL Stats, 3 teams made the playoffs with top-ten lines last year, but 3 teams with offensive lines ranking in the bottom-ten also made the playoffs, including the Super Bowl Champion Ravens.

For the record, two of the teams that made the playoffs with bad offensive lines (Seattle and Washington) are led by two of the most athletic quarterbacks ever to play the position. However, Baltimore's line ranked second to last in the league, behind only Pittsburgh, and they won the Lombardi trophy with a kinda-sorta-mobile QB in Joey Flacco. I mention this because Alex Smith is considered by most to be more mobile than Flacco. It's also worth noting that the Ravens passed the ball on 56% of there snaps, whereas both the Redskins and Seahawks threw less than 47% of the time. Even with an incompetent passing game and an offense built around Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs passed on 49% of their offensive possessions last year. With an offensive makeover performed by a pass-friendly veteran coach, the 2013 Chiefs should have a similar passing percentage with similar QB mobility as the 2012 Champion Ravens.

Does this mean KC should avoid using their resources to upgrade the offensive line? No- not when you look at the team's other choices for the franchise tag. The list of other unrestricted free agents is highlighted by Peyton Hillis, Steve Breaston and Matt Cassel. While it would be advantageous to get more value out of your franchise tag than re-hiring an offensive lineman, the Chiefs truly had nothing better to do with it. Would you rather hold onto Breaston for $10.5 million? How about retaining Andy Studebaker for $9.6 million? No way. So KC holds onto its most valuable UFA, he signs the contract and the deal is done.....which would all just be grand, if it actually meant that Albert would be playing here in 2013. Unfortunately, this is not the end of the story.

Albert now stands as a holdout. He is currently the only Chief on the roster not attending the first phase of Andy Reid's new voluntary off-season program. Instead, he waits for KC to offer him a long-term contract, or find a worthwhile deal with another team to send Albert elsewhere. The 28 year old lineman is telling the press he wants a longer commitment before showing up to camp. On NFL AM, Albert said "Until I know my situation with certainty I'm going to stay away." He went on to tell the media that he's unsure of what he'll do when the mandatory program begins.

The Chiefs have from now until then (with "Phase Three" workouts beginning May 14) to either come to terms with their veteran lineman or find an suitable trade offer. It's at that point when things start looking ugly and the team has the right to start fining Albert for every day he misses. On March 22nd, ESPN's Adam Schefter tweeted that KC was “seeking a second-round pick in this year's draft as well as another pick in 2014 in a trade for franchise OT Branden Albert.” Judging from the rumors that are swirling around at this point, Miami seems to be the most viable, if not the only, team interested in that deal. Clark and Company have moved swiftly thus far with major, team-changing decisions, so for all we know, a deal could be made tomorrow. However, the upcoming draft, and the Chiefs' position therein, play a key role in determining Albert's worth to the organization.

If the team trades Albert, it would be almost obvious to go with a highly-regarded lineman like Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher with the first pick, especially since KC has already parted ways with another seasoned lineman in Eric Winston. But, the Chiefs have until prime-time on April 25th to probe and evaluate and analyze and make damn sure they don't use the #1 overall pick on an overrated offensive lineman. Maybe they fall in love with Fisher or Joeckel. Maybe they retain Albert and decide to upgrade defensively through the draft, instead. Maybe they decide to trade down for more value. There is plenty of time left until draft day to evaluate the numerous options, and it would seem wise to use however much is necessary to get the best deal possible. They would gladly take the previously mentioned original asking price for Albert if someone offered, but it sounds like even Miami would try their best to talk the Chiefs down from that original ask.

Whichever way the Branden Albert situation gets sorted out will define KC's role in the upcoming draft. With the QB situation seemingly solidified and many flawed positions filled with talent from free agency, this signing (or lack thereof) could be the final deciding factor for how KC uses that first overall pick. Things will be much more clear once we know whether or not the Chiefs will need to upgrade the O-Line- to the point where KC's choice could be made very simple by the situation at hand. RGR will be here to report any news on the matter, so we can then make the next step in pondering our draft day fantasies. Stay tuned for any major breaking news, and check in later this week for more analysis of this year's off-season signings.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Key Players Re-signed, Part 1- Dwayne Bowe


The Chiefs successfully retained the bulk of their passing potency from years prior by signing Dwayne Bowe to a long and expensive contract last month. Today, I'll do my best to determine whether or not these huge figures in the new contract are worth what the Chiefs will get back in production for the next five years.

There are two completely different ways to think about whether or not this deal was “worth it”- probably more, really, but I'll stick with these two overlying ideas. First, we can compare the money he earned to other receivers with similar offensive production. Secondly, we can hypothesize about the figures of that contract and what else the Chiefs would have done with that cash. Basically, we can ask what Bowe is worth on the NFL market, or we can ask what he is worth to the Chiefs.

First things first- this new contract keeps the Bowe Show in KC through 2017 for an average of $11.2 million per year. This is the 4th highest average salary for WRs in the league, behind only Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Wallace. All three of these receivers outrank Bowe in win probability added, yards per reception, yards per target, overall yards, receptions and touchdowns last year. Other receivers like Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Wes Welker show more value over time as well, with Bowe sitting comfortably outside the top 25 in many important stats. Andre Johnson has a similar, but more affordable contract at 7 years for $67.8 million, which averages to about $9.5 million. He dominates Bowe statistically every year. Wes Welker is making only $6 million a year in Denver, and most would think of him as a more valuable asset than Bowe on every single Sunday. Roddy White may be the most dangerous receiver since Randy Moss in his prime, and he makes little over $7.1 million a year.

Unfortunately, comparing Dwayne Bowe's production to that of other receivers is difficult. Sure, with a bevy of marginally talented QBs and a run-oriented offense, 82's numbers don't look impressive. Would anyone's? While Roddy White has Matt Ryan throwing perfectly paced bombs to him and Megatron is constantly targeted by Matt Stafford, Bowe spent years struggling to compete with a uninspiring combination of Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard and Tyler [expletive removed] Palko. Those numbers are skewed, whichever way you look at them. Many experts around the league regard Bowe as a top-tier receiver stuck in an unfortunate situation. Now that this new regime has upgraded its offense, and most importantly improved at QB, the 2013 Chiefs will give Bowe the opportunity to put up top-tier numbers, as well. Alex Smith won't need to be Tom Brady to let Bowe fulfill his potential. He just needs to avoid being as bad as Cassel, which should be simple enough.

But, even with a reliable passer behind center, can Chiefs fans really expect the Bowe Show to deliver in the same way as a Calvin Johnson or a Roddy White? Since it's never been witnessed, it's difficult to say, but it's also not easy to imagine Bowe cutting his drops in half or doubling his total season yardage by shifting from Cassel to Smith (and from Crennel to Reid). When you compare his projected output to his massive contract, those figures still look inflated. However, upon further analysis of other WR contracts signed this offseason, Bowe's deal doesn't seem so outrageous after all.

At 29 years old, Greg Jennings signed with Minnesota for $9 million a year for five years. Most of Greg's stats are marginally less impressive than Bowe's, and he has Aaron Rodgers passing him the ball. If you ask me, $2.2 million a year is worth it for a way higher ceiling and another year of playing at his prime. Mike Wallace signed with Miami this year for 5 years and $60 million, but many see this as another misstep by the infamously misguided Dolphins organization. Wallace is known as a speedster and a deep threat, but like a Donnie Avery or Randy Moss, he offers little else. Bowe offers a variety of ways to disrupt a defense, and he also isn't scared to block or use his size to his advantage. With all the miscalculations in the Chiefs' past, it wouldn't be hard to envision KC overpaying by hiring Wallace to a huge contract in a failed attempt to replace the presence of #82 on offense. So, when you consider the figures of Bowe's contract in comparison to others this year, it seems to fit the bill for current market value.

Now, we have to consider what Bowe's presence or the lack thereof would mean to the Chiefs offense in 2013. Bowe has led the Chiefs in receptions every year since 2008, when Tony Gonzales last wore the red and gold. Since the team is projected to be far more pass-friendly, losing a receiver of his caliber would inevitably mean signing another talented, expensive WR to fill the void. The aforementioned deals with Jennings and Wallace wouldn't fit for KC, and neither of those free agents would provide a comparable combination of size, strength and speed. Bowe isn't just a deep threat like Avery or Wallace, and he sure as hell isn't just a slot receiver like Welker or Amendola. He's a large wide-out that gets open from a variety of different routes. Jon Baldwin has done nothing to prove he's ready to step up, and McCluster is like the polar opposite style of receiver. Shockingly, it seems that the only man who can fill Dwayne Bowe's role on this team is Dwayne Bowe.

All in all, you can't fault the Chiefs for signing easily their best receiver to a long-term deal, even if you think he's somewhat overpriced. In the current market, this deal is far from a bargain, but it's not highway robbery, either. It hasn't bankrupted the team, and it hasn't stopped Clark from picking up legitimate, high-priced talent through free agency, so who can argue? If this deal stopped KC from improving the team in other ways, there could be some complaint here. Fact is, under its new counseling, the organization is spending whatever it takes to make the team competitive, at the very least. Since re-signing Bowe did not impede our ability to move forward with success, it would seem ignorant to criticize. That is, unless you still think of him as the brash, cocky, big-mouthed youngster that he used to be. Many will always think of Bowe in that vein, but for the past few years, Dwayne has been a studious, hard-working player who is respected and even liked by his teammates. If you can keep those aging quotes of braggadocian immaturity in the past where they belong, just as he has, you should be excited by the news of his re-signing.

Later on in the week, RGR will take a closer look at Brandon Albert, and the effect that franchise-tagging this elite, veteran lineman will have on our new-look Chiefs in 2013. Stay tuned.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

The Freedom Of An Open Slate


Where to begin? May has been a busy month for the Chiefs front office, and with draft day on the horizon, their work is far from over. It all started with the official signing of Alex Smith (and subsequent release of Matt Cassel.) Following this moment, the entire organization, and its fan base, seemed freed by the shackles of the past and intrigued by the openness of the future ahead. Clark Hunt started dropping serious cash to make the 2013 Chiefs into a serious contender by re-signing vital parts of the team and grabbing talented free agents to fill glaring holes. Less than two months after the Super Bowl, KC has re-signed their top-shelf receiver in Bowe, come to terms with their most important offensive lineman in Brandon Albert, and signed a long-term deal with their most underrated weapon- Pro Bowl punter Dustin Colquitt. The Chiefs also paid big for a CB demanding figures in the “playmaker range”, acquired their first legitimate deep-threat WR in ages, and added tons of veteran talent for the sake of depth and leadership. But, I'm getting way ahead of myself. Clearly, we should be taking things one step at a time.

Late March is never a time when all eyes are on football. The Madness of college hoops takes control of its huge fan-base and delivers approximately a billion exciting moments per day, for weeks. NBA fans have a close eye on professional ball as their teams edge closer to the end of the regular season. The intrigue of the upcoming baseball season and the World Baseball Classic are enough to leave their fans contently tuned into the MLB Network for the entire month.

This March, however, has been markedly different. Even with the constant action from other sports, many Chiefs fans still have football on their minds- and this time, it's for all the right reasons. I'm not sure, but I think that intrigue comes from this feeling of freedom- an open slate, I guess you'd call it.

There's a new coach, a new GM and a new quarterback in town. All the major figures that represented last year's failures are gone now. That feeling of freedom is being expressed by Clark Hunt in the beautiful language of dollar signs. Now that they've begun anew, he is clearly content on spending the money necessary to build a winner here in KC. With input from Dorsey and Reid, Clark's already done major work to fix the ship thank sank so dreadfully last season. So, I guess the first step that I should take has make itself clear-

Thank you, Mr. Hunt, for making me give a shit about the Chiefs- even in the middle of March.

The Report will return two times a week and sort out all these changes as best as possible. This week, I'll start off with the three aforementioned key players that were quickly re-signed, and how keeping them will affect the team. Make sure to tune in Monday, and make sure to leave a comment expressing just how lame/awesome I am. Probably lame. That's fine.   

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Meet the Gang, Part 7- Bob Sutton


In 1973, the release of Dark Side of the Moon was blowing the minds of hippies and rebels and flower children everywhere. Richard Nixon was still telling the press he wasn't a crook, The Exorcist was scaring everyone back to church, and Bruce Lee was finally karate-chopping bad guys for an American audience. In baseball, the American League began playing with designated hitter rules for the first time. In football, Dan Shula's Dolphins recorded the first and only perfect season in NFL history. Chiefs owner Clark Hunt was just an eight year old boy watching Len Dawson throw bombs to Otis Taylor.

What was Bob Sutton doing? Coaching football. What's he doing now? Coaching football, for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Sutton brings 40 uninterrupted years of coaching experience to KC's defensive coordinator position. He started his coaching career in 1973, serving as a grad assistant under legendary college coach, Bo Schembechler. After nearly two decades at various positions and colleges, Bob found himself coaching Army in 1991. There he stayed until the Jets hired him in 2000. In New York, Sutton worked at four different positions under four different coaches in 13 seasons.

Bob brings all the stout defensive mentality from New York, without the huge mouth or the drama. Sounds perfect for Kansas City. But, the statistics reveal some sub-par performance in recent years. Overall, the Jets ranked 18th or lower in three of the last five years. Sadly, two of those crappy seasons outrank Kansas City's defense of the same year, and, not-so-sadly, the stats also show that when the Jet's D is good, it's really good. In '09 and 2010, the Jet's defense ranked 1st and 5th, respectively. Each of those years, New York sent two defensive players to the Pro Bowl. Tamba, Houston, Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson all went to Hawaii this year, and they aren't the only Chiefs on defense that will go in the future. With talent like this already in place, Bob Sutton should prove to be a good choice. Coaches and league experts praise Bob for his mentoring abilities and high football IQ. I've stated before that this team has all the pieces necessary for elite status. With any luck (no year-long injuries,) Sutton is the kind of coach that can make them a top-5 defense.

Monday, February 4, 2013

Meet the Gang, Part 6- Two Andys and a Chung


The season is officially over. Every NFL fan that wasn't rooting for the Ravens turns their focus back to their own team today, and wonders what could bring them to the next Big Game. Chiefs fans, however, are already accustomed to spending their days waiting and debating over major moves for their franchise. The upcoming weeks and months will be heavy with anticipation. All the stats and breakdowns and in-depth analysis in the world can never truly show fans what the Chiefs will be in 2013. There is plenty of content to analyze, plenty of moves to critique, but nothing will be known until Week 1 of the 2013 season. I wish I didn't use that line about holding your breath already. Is it too early to recycle that one?

In case you weren't paying attention, the Chiefs cleared house and rebuilt a coaching staff in a matter of weeks, with most of the moves coming before the legendary Har-Bowl. Let's look at the current staff in Philly for the sake of comparison:

On the team's website, the Eagles list Chip Kelly as their head coach, former Eagle Duce Staley as a special teams quality control coach, Ted Williams as the running backs coach and Keith Gray as an assistant strength and conditioning coach. That's it. The Eagles have so-far made moves to hire a head coach, a running backs coach and two other assistants. In that time, KC added 19 new members to the coaching staff and retained veteran coaches Emmitt Thomas and Gary Gibbs. It took the Chiefs four days to hire Andy Reid after Philadelphia let him loose. It took the eagles twelve days to find another head coach. After hiring Reid on the 7th of January, the Chiefs took only four days to announce the hiring of a new offensive and defensive coordinator. The Eagles have yet to fill either position. Just seven days after choosing their new head coach, the Chiefs' staff listed a new GM, all new coordinators and a nearly full roster of freshly-hired assistants. Essentially, Kansas City rebuilt their program in a week. The process isn't completely over, but the bulk of the work was done before they crowned a champion in New Orleans.

The way Mr. Hunt dove into the market reveals a courage and wisdom for which Chiefs fans in the past gave him little credit. The work isn't over, but a positive impression has been made.

The exciting, confettiful ending to the Super Bowl marks a huge moment for Chiefs fans. At this very second, a Chiefs employee is on the phone with someone, somewhere, trying to bring Alex Smith to Kansas City. The fight is on between KC, Cleveland and other NFL bottom-feeders to find their new franchise QB. But, regardless of whether Smith starts for the Chiefs next year or not, the franchise knows it needs improved protection for the QB. The offensive line is loaded (with or without franchise-tagging Brandon Albert) with talent and youth, much like the rest of the team. All KC should need is a talented, young coach to mentor them, right? Let's hope so.

Andy Heck- this Fargo native offers 20 combined seasons of NFL O-Line experience- 11 years as a player for the Redskins, Seahawks and Bears, and 9 from a long tenure as the offensive line coach in Jacksonville. There, Andy did what the rest of the Jaguars did- he wallowed in mediocrity for most of a decade. The numbers aren't impressive. The Chiefs allowed 8 more sacks than the Jaguars did last year, but only Indianapolis allowed more hits on their QB. According to Advanced NFL Stats, the Jags' offensive line earned a lower overall ranking than the Chiefs' line for the last five years.

The stat's don't signify much of an improvement from this hire, but Heck's never coached an offensive line like the one taking the field for KC next year. Andy Reid shows a lot of faith here by hiring him from an almost-always-crappy franchise and giving him a chance to play a huge role in a totally rebuilt offense. While the two Andys prepare this offense for 2013, Chiefs fans and employees alike will simply have to trust the 'Stache with this odd decision. Maybe Reid just thinks he fits perfectly with the new assistant offensive line coach. Which is a totally smooth segue that brings me to...

Eugene Chung- here, we have another example of Andy Reid sticking with what's comfortable. New England drafted Chung 13th overall in the '93 draft, and after three years with the Pats, Eugene played a season each with Jacksonville and Indy. From there, Chung went on to coach under Reid for three years as an offensive line assistant.

The Chiefs roster includes Pro Bowl tackles Eric Winston and Brandon Albert, as well as Jon Asamoah, Jeff Allen and Donald Stephenson- three raw, athletic, young linemen drafted no later than the 3rd round. Those draft picks need to make a difference out on the field, and they need to do it this year. Chiefs fans should all be hoping beyond hope that these two coaches realize just how important their roles will be to the team's chances. It doesn't matter if we pick up Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick or Tom Brady- if we can't keep our new quarterback safe in the pocket, this team will continue to fail.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Meet the Gang, Part 2 (of Many)


They've cleaned house in Kansas City, and the rehiring process happens fast. When a team cans all but two major members of the coaching staff, there's a lot of work to be done in a small frame of time. Thanks to the aggressive attitude Clark Hunt brought to this off-season, that time-frame is being used wisely. Already now, we have too many new names and faces to familiarize ourselves with in one comfortable sitting. I'll be back here daily to introduce the fans to a small portion of this busload of new assistants at at a time. Today, we'll start with two coaches hoping to improve this woeful Chiefs offense.


Doug Pederson- While the hiring of Dave Toub was an understated improvement, the impact of this signing may be underwhelming. Andy Reid already announced that he will call the plays in 2013. In truth, Andy will act as the full time OC for this team, and that's a very good thing. Dorsey will be determining the personnel side of the team, so Pederson will have little effect on who suits up on offense. To me, it seems that Pederson was hired on to fill some sort of supportive role with Reid, where-in he would be a teacher, a calm veteran voice, and a mentor to the next franchise QB hopeful. The experience that comes from playing behind guys like McNabb, Marino and Favre should be much-appreciated.

Eric Bieniemy- Here, we have yet another hiring that reunites Andy Reid with a former employee. Bieniemy played 9 seasons with four NFL clubs, including Andy's '99 Eagles team, as a slash back, kick returner and punt returner. He began his coaching career by returning to his Alma-mater for two years as the Colorado running backs coach. Eric was hired in 2003 to the same position in UCLA, and after three years in Los Angeles, he was offered the same job in the NFL by the Vikings organization. Under Eric's coaching, Adrian Peterson exploded onto the scene and quickly became the most powerful rushing force in football. After briefly returning to Colorado to coach the Buffaloes' offense, Eric now returns to the NFL to mentor another elite running back. The Chiefs roster also includes Shaun Draughn, Nate Eachus and Cyrus Gray- three young rushers with 2 combined starts and 71 combined carries.

Although Bieniemy can claim all the impressive achievements of Adrian Peterson as proof of his own coaching success, he still arrives in KC as an unproven coach with a short resume. Just like nobody can stop AD from being a beast, fans in Chiefs Kingdom know that Jamaal is going to be Jamaal. No running backs coach in the league is going to influence what he does on the field- nor should they. So, this means the attention turns to the aforementioned youngsters and the impact Eric can have on their productivity. That's where the unproven part comes in. The year before the Vikings drafted Peterson, Chester Taylor averaged 4 yards per rush with 303 carries. Then, AD took the starting job and became the engine of the offense for the rest of Eric's tenure in Minnesota. After Peterson's arrival, no other running back recorded more than 157 carries for the Vikings in a season.

There's nothing in the stats that definitively says Eric is a bad choice. But, there's nothing to say that he'll make a big impact, either. Andy Reid seems confident in Eric's abilities, but the rest of us simply have to wait and see. Fans will be waiting with excitement and hope as they put all their faith in Andy Reid. I have a feeling it won't be the last time I say that, either. Each one of these hires is a major test of Reid's ability to scout for talent at the coaching level. Building a franchise from the ground up like this is something I've never seen before. Both as a fan and an analyst, I'm excited to witness what happens next in this high-profile experiment. You should be too, so come back tomorrow for further test-study analysis.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Meet The Gang, Part 1: David Toub


 Clarke Hunt knows this league well. He knows the fast-paced and ruthless nature of the NFL, and he's reacting to it with impressive panache and decisiveness. With Reid and Dorsey's input, the Chiefs have hired new coordinators for the offense, defense and special teams, as well as two new offensive line coaches. Talk about clearing house, wow. These are a lot of changes to analyze. Let's get started today with a hire that may go under the radar, but may also be the upgrade that takes KC to the playoffs.

On the 15th, the Chiefs took another step in the rebuilding process by hiring Dave Toub as their new special teams coordinator. Toub had an impressive run with the same job in Chicago, where his group led the league in kick return TDs and total return yardage. This move reunites Dave with Andy Reid, who spent two years with Toub in Missouri and three more with him in Philadelphia.

Toub began his coaching career as a graduate assisant at the University of Texas El-Paso and immediately earned a job there as the strength and conditioning coach. Dave then spent nine years at a similar position with the University of Missouri, where he and Andy Reid first met. Reid then hired Dave on to his staff in Philly in 2001, reuniting Toub not only with Andy, but also with the team that selected him in the 9th round of the '85 draft as an offensive lineman. In 2004, Lovie Smith hired Toub to take control of the special teams in Chicago. Dave's contract was meant to retain him through the 2013 season, but Bears GM Phil Emery allowed him to interview with other teams. Sources from the Chicago Tribune explain that Toub didn't wish to work under a new coach while competing with him for the head coaching position.

At a glance, the statistics might make this look like a lateral move. After all, the Chiefs ranked in the top ten for kickoff and punt returns for the past five years, and two of those years they ranked higher than Toub's Bears. But, if you look closer, it becomes clear that this hire marks a significant improvement. During Toub's 9 year tenure in Chicago, the Bears totaled 19 return TDs, averaging 2.1 per season. During the same time, the Chiefs averaged only 0.67 returns per year, managing to score only 6 return touchdowns under 4 different special teams coaches. The Bears ran back 11 TDs in two years, from '06 to '07. The Chiefs haven't returned a punt or a kickoff for a score since September 13, 2010.
Maybe Toub can turn McCluster or Wylie or somebody into the next Devin Hester, maybe he can't. Either way, he brings consistency to a job where the talent is already established. All the tools are there, with all these young, athletic special teams guys, to bring back the X-Factor this team hasn't had since the times of Dante Hall. That's something for which we can all be truly excited.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Dorsey and The Domino Effect


 So, another piece of the puzzle falls into place. This Monday, John Dorsey signed on to fill the confusing co-general manager position here in KC. The signing ends a long stint with the Packers, where Dorsey spent 12 years as Director of College Scouting, then earned a position as Director of Football Operations just last year. Dorsey will report only to Hunt, but for the first time in franchise history, the head coach will also report directly to the team owner. Clark explained to the press that Dorsey will have control of personnel decisions, while Andy has full control over the team on the field.

This move reunites Dorsey and Reid after they worked together in Green Bay from '92 to '97. The Packers averaged nearly 11 wins per season over that time, and never ranked lower than 6th league-wide in total points scored. Their final three seasons together include a Super Bowl win, a Super Bowl loss, 7 playoff wins and 37 regular season wins. Those years brought some legendary moments, with Elway and Favre simultaneously playing their best football. But, as much as I love thinking back to those times, the nostalgia brings with it more proof of a very important point.

Andy Reid has a strong resume and loads of success in the NFL. That much is clear. But, his presumed expertise is the ability to engineer a pass-happy, top-shelf offense. He is generally well-respected in the league, and his reputation is strong enough to improve the resume of others around him. The NFL had enough faith in Andy to offer head coaching jobs to five coaches he hired previously. But forget about all that respect and reputation nonsense, and look at the numbers. Andy Reid is a successful coach, but he has never succeeded without an elite quarterback. In the four seasons of coaching without McNabb or Favre starting at QB, teams led by Reid average 6.75 wins in the regular season. In those four years, Andy Reid has exactly zero playoff victories.

So what does that mean? Are we screwed? Are we really back to a situation where indecision at the quarterback spot is this team's biggest flaw? Oh god, what if we sign Michael Vick? The realization of Reid's limitations brings up plenty of unnerving questions. Sadly, many of them will go unanswered until this year's draft, unless a bold move is made in the free agency market before then. But either way, I'm either gullible or wise enough to believe it will work. Even though looking at the options we have for improving at QB makes me weep softly, I think this duo will make the team a winner. There are just too many pieces, too many uber-talented skill players on the offense for Dorsey and Reid not to make something good out of it. John Dorsey earned this job by providing vital insight for the draft. His impressive list of draft choices include Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, BJ Raji, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and AJ Hawk. Reid has utilized players similar to Jamaal and Bowe and Moeaki well enough to make them all Pro Bowlers. It sounds crazy, but if you take the misused offensive weapons from last year and supplement them with the first pick in every round of the draft, this team is already a winner on paper.

Obviously, all this hinges on Dorsey and Reid's communal choice of a franchise QB. Considering how quickly Mr. Hunt made his moves for coach and GM, one would assume he'll be prompt in bringing a new QB to Kansas City. The options are plentiful, but nobody stands out as a special franchise quarterback. There will be a lot of rumors and a lot of time to analyze the possibilities, especially if the team waits until this April to draft their next QB. For now, I see one option as being markedly more interesting than any other:

First, wait until the 49ers season is over, and figure out what they're doing with Alex Smith. Then, if and however we can, offer him a contract. After Smith is signed on, spend your second draft pick on Matt Barkley, who many project to fall as far as the third round. Now, you have two competent, highly motivated guys to compete for the starting job. Imagine it: in one corner is Smith, who went to the Pro Bowl this year and was then benched for an unproven young QB. At the season's end, he gets (hypothetically) cut or traded or whatever, then he ends up in Kansas City fighting against another young unproven QB to take back his starer position and avoid holding the clipboard yet again. Then, in the other corner, there's Matt Barkley. Will he finally be the USC quarterback that lives up to expectations? Will he live the rest of his life regretting coming back to college for his senior year? With all those questions weighing on him, Barkley has all the reasons in the world to succeed.

With this option, we have a Pro Bowl QB fighting for his pride against an elite college prospect with everything to prove. Sounds better than Tebow to me. At this point, I'd be happy knowing that only one of those guys will be given a chance at the starting spot next season. Are we really so down on Barkley that we'd rather see Cassel or Quinn? Again? Seriously? There's no way that can happen. So, as we keep this pie-in-the-sky idea in mind, we can only kick back and wait for the rumors to spread. We'll hear a lot of names in the next few weeks, from Matt Flynn to Geno Smith to Jason Campbell to Mike Glennon. But, amidst the plethora of options, Smith and Barkley's battle for respect still stands out as the most intriguing possibility.