Chiefs Visit Jerry World for Tough Turkey Day Test

On this very special holiday, I'm reminded of everything that makes me thankful. I'm thankful for friends, for my family, for my wonderful pets, and I'm thankful the Chiefs didn't blow it last weekend and ruin their whole damn season. After KC survived that nailbiter on Sunday, the odds-makers now have the Chiefs as the third-likeliest team to win the Super Bowl and the betting favorite to win the AFC. That's one hell of an accomplishment for a team that seemed to be on the brink of missing the playoffs.

Andy Reid and his staff clearly thought highly of Indy's tandem of talented cornerbacks in former Chief Charvarius Ward and recently acquired Sauce Gardner. KC's offense approached that game with their most rush-heavy gameplan in several seasons. Kareem Hunt carried the ball 30 times while KC held the Colts' powerful offense to just 20 points. An even bigger surprise came from what running backs did not accomplish on Sunday, as KC held MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor to under 60 rushing yards. That brings the Chiefs' average for rushing yards allowed per game down to 97.6. Every team with a lower average than KC is currently on pace to make the playoffs, aside from Houston, who is the currently the last team out and two spots ahead of the Chiefs.

Moving the ball on the ground successfully was especially important for KC last Sunday when Patrick Mahomes continued his unusual slump. It's safe to say Mahomes still hasn't been his best. He missed on some potentially big plays downfield, his QBR didn't reach 70, and his Passer Rating didn't reach 80. That's three games in a row of Mahomes not reaching a Rating of 80, which he's only done once, and not since mid-season of 2021. Despite this rare multi-game slump, Mahomes is still putting up some big numbers. Actually, both teams meeting in Dallas today have QB's who could be considered the most productive in their conference.

Patrick and Prescott have the two highest averages for passing yardage in the NFL. ESPN's QBR stat ranks Dak first league-wide and Mahomes third. Passer Rating doesn't think either guy is even a top-six quarterback because Passer Rating is kinda dumb, but I'll focus on that some other time. Prescott is playing an elite level of football that's keeping Dallas alive far longer than the Vegas odds-makers and pro analysts predicted. The Cowboys rank first in yards per game and fourth in points with Prescott at the helm.

The defense is their obvious flaw. Dallas allows the fourth-most total yards and the second-most total points in the NFL. They rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed and 30th in passing yards, resulting in the fourth-most total yards allowed per game. Only the Bengals allow their opponents to score more points. Maybe Dallas has some newfound confidence after defeating the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles last week, but that was the first win they've collected over a good football team. Their only other victories came when facing the Giants, Jets, Commanders and Raiders.

I don't expect KC to take their foot off the pedal any time soon, especially not in front of the whole country on Turkey Day. I also don't expect the best football player ever born to keep struggling like he has lately. When the weather gets cold and the games matter most, Mahomes delivers. I'm predicting a 29-24 victory for Kansas City. I hope you get to enjoy today with people who love football and love you. Have a happy Turkey Day.

Can KC's D Stuff Potential MVP JT?

The Kansas City Chiefs play the most important regular season game of the Mahomes-Reid Era today, and I'm afraid I'll keep saying that until a playoff berth is either secured or unobtainable. The 8-2 Indianapolis Colts are the AFC's biggest surprise and a genuine contender for the #1 seed. Their offense ranks first league-wide in points and yards per game. Their defense gets after the opposing quarterback and just added potentially elite talent to the secondary with a trade for Sauce Gardner. Indy started the season looking dangerous, but over the last two games, they've looked more like a danger to themselves. 

Daniel Jones deserves credit for redefining himself in Indianapolis. However, he may turn back into a pumpkin just in time for Thanksgiving. Last week, as the Colts nearly lost to the rudderless Atlanta Falcons, Jones threw a pick and fumbled the ball three times, losing one. The week before, Jones also fumbled three times, and he paired that with three picks as Indy lost to Pittsburgh. That's four interceptions and six fumbles in his last two times on the field. Patrick Mahomes clearly hasn't played his best ball lately, but he's not doing that.

So, if you're a Colts fan, you're not worried about that because you have Jonathan Taylor, right? I wouldn't be so confident. The Chiefs defense has already faced off with Saquon Barkley and four of the 11 most productive running backs in the league. KC faced Derrick Henry, Saquon, Travis Etienne Jr., Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook III and never allowed a run of 18 yards or longer. Only Saquon has scored a rushing touchdown, and only Cook III has reached 90 yards rushing.

Water must find its level today. Losing to Denver last week was one of the most disappointing regular season defeats in my lifetime, but this team didn't become a dynasty by wilting after disappointing defeats. Many memories have been made by Chiefs teams with their backs against the wall. We've set the stage for some high-stakes drama, and that's when this team typically plays its best. I'm predicting a perception-altering 29-23 victory for the Chiefs.

Can Motivated Mahomes Outmatch Dominant Denver Defense?

One of their most important regular season games in years awaits the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs this afternoon. Without a win today, KC will almost certainly fail to win their division. This would force them to play road games in the playoffs. It would also force fans like us to consider the possibility that the Chiefs don't make the playoffs at all, which would make for an unprecedented low-point in the Mahomes-Reid era. To dismiss all these concerns today, the Chiefs must find a way to score against a defense that's on pace to be one of the all-time greats.

The 8-2 Denver Broncos' dominant defense is the reason they're leading the AFC West. The Chiefs aren't too far behind in many important categories, though. KC ranks sixth in total yardage allowed per game, and Denver ranks third. The Broncos also rank third in points allowed per game, but the Chiefs are right behind in fourth place league-wide. The biggest difference comes in these teams' abilities to attack opposing quarterbacks.

Denver has 46 sacks, which is a total that only seven teams reached in the entire 2024 regular season and 14 more than any other team this season. Three different Broncos have at least six sacks. Nick Bonitto has 9.5 and a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year. So, if the Chiefs are facing a divisional opponent with a Super Bowl-winning coach and a defense that's historically great on paper, why am I not worried?

Bo Nix is the reason. He's an objectively below-average QB at this point. ESPN's QBR thinks he's just normal-bad, while the Passer Rating algorithm thinks he's worse than Justin Fields. That Denver defense is incredible, and they're an eight-win team, and I still don't believe in them at all. I know they can only play the teams on their schedule, but the amount of duds on that schedule makes their record seem like a mirage.

Jalen Hurts' Eagles are the only good team with a good quarterback the Broncos have beaten so far. They played two early-season games against teams with quarterbacks considered good this season - Indy's Daniel Jones and the Chargers' Justin Herbert - and they lost both games. They held a potent Cowboys offense to 24 points and posted 44 on that awful defense in late October. Aside from these four games with capable QBs in which the Broncos went 2-2 and looked flawed, Denver has feasted on mediocrity.
 
They faced Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Justin Fields, Jaxson Dart, Davis Mills (Stroud got hurt after 10 pass attempts) and Geno Smith. They beat the Jets, Giants, Texans and Raiders by nine points combined. The've played more teams that are currently in last place than teams that currently have winning records. That victory over Philly is Denver's only victory against a winning football team.

In a must-win moment, trusting Patrick Mahomes is my nature. Trusting Bo Nix more in that kind of moment is incomprehensible. It may be ugly, it may not impress all the Chiefs' critics, but the Chiefs aren't losing a game this important against a team so accustomed to facing inferior competition. I'm picking the Chiefs to win a tense 20-17 battle.

Brief Bye Week Breakdown of KC's Team Stats

The bye week has arrived, and it came right around mid-season this year, so now is the perfect time to check out the big-picture stats for our 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs. The numbers indicate big, positive changes for KC this season without many steps backwards. Credit, as always, goes to Brett Veach for putting the Chiefs in a position to succeed every year. Patrick Mahomes also makes winning easier, as we all know, and his numbers at this point make him a strong early bet for MVP. The only guy more likely to earn that award, according to DraftKings, is the guy who beat him 28-21 last week.

Through the 2024 reguar season, seven quarterbacks with at least 15 starts averaged more passing yards per game than Patrick Mahomes. Only three QB's with more than two starts this season average more than him now. He threw the ninth-most touchdowns last regular season. His 17 touchdown passes through nine games of this season has only been surpassed by three guys. It's also worth noting that Mahomes compiled 2/3rds of this without Rashee Rice, who just missed six games to suspension.

This improvement must have something to do with the Chiefs' improved ability to protect their aforementioned face of the franchise. KC ranked 19th in QB sacked percentage in 2024, meaning they allowed Mahomes to be sacked more often than average last season. This season, that percentage has dropped to just 5.11%, which ranks ninth league-wide. On the opposite side, the Chiefs sack the opposing QB 7.43% of the time, which is good for 14th right now. That's very similar to last year's percentage in the regular season, when they ranked 15th. 

The overall stats for KC suggest the strong defense has remained strong and the offense has significantly improved. The Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL in yards per game this season and ninth in points per game. Last year, they finished the regular season 17th in yards per game and 15th in points. They're allowing the seventh-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points after allowing the ninth-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points last season. Remember when former defensive coordinator Bob Sutton played that never-changing, bland defense for years and limited the potential greatness of this era of Chiefs football? Neither do I.

Spags Stuffing Buffalo's Run-Game Can Keep KC's #1 Seed Hopes Healthy

Patrick Mahomes is so damn great that he constantly overshadows how good Josh Allen is, and I think that will continue this afternoon at Orchard Park. Their 2025 output looks remarkably similar. Allen's completion percentage is exactly one point higher than Patrick's. His average for yards per pass attempt is 0.5 yards higher, and his Passer Rating is 0.5 points higher. Both elite QB's have thrown four picks and been sacked 14 times for 85 yards lost. While both these future Hall of Famers feasted on bad defenses in weeks prior, they both face elite pass defenses this afternoon.

The Bills rank second league-wide in passing yards allowed per game, and the Chiefs rank third. Every AFC team that always has Mahomes standing between them and a Super Bowl appearance needs to focus on making their secondaries solid, and it seems Buffalo has done that this season. The strength of the Bills' secondary paired with the Buffalo defense ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed per game could result in the Chiefs running the ball more often and with more success. KC isn't as bad at anything as Buffalo is at stopping the run, but the Chiefs defense also isn't great at slowing down great running backs. While KC's defense ranks fourth overall in yards allowed per game, they rank 11th in rushing yards allowed per game. James Cook III is second only to Jonathan Taylor in total rushing yards, and as ESPN's preview of the game pointed out, the Bills are undefeated when he either reaches 100 rushing yards or scores.

How Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo chooses to counter this and how the defense implements his decisions will decide the winner today. Cook III averages only 28.7 rushing yards per game over his career against the Chiefs, but he also averages 3.3 receptions for 30 yards per game. Consider that a small sample size, though, because Cook III will face KC for only the fourth time in his fourth pro season today. Last time he saw KC's defense was in the Arrowhead Invitational, known in some parts as the AFC Championship, when he finished with 85 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns and 49 receiving yards. KC managed to win that game thanks to an 11-point fourth quarter, but allowing 29 to any team is concerning.

Both of these top-shelf teams need this win to keep their hopes for the #1 seed in the AFC healthy. Mahomes typically succeeds when it matters most, and this is the most important game he'll be a part of until the start of the playoffs. This largely untested Bills team is hungry, but they looked far-from-perfect when they lost to New England and Atlanta in back-to-back weeks. Despite the Chiefs facing perhaps their toughest test of the regular season today, I knew all week who I would pick to win this important face-off. I'm taking the Chiefs in a hard-fought 26-24 battle.

KC Confident, Washington Worried After Jayden Daniels Injury Update

The 3-4 Washington Commanders are a tricky team to judge based on their long list of injuries throughout this season. Now, instead of the Kansas City Chiefs facing off with last year's Rookie of the Year, another serious Commanders injury means that Marcus Mariota will start for Washington this Monday. The spread on Draft Kings right now is at 12.5, which is even more evidence that we may see back-to-back stinkers from the Chiefs' opposition. As fans in Washington already wonder what could have been after only seven games, the 4-3 Chiefs are back in pole position for another Super Bowl. 

An 0-2 start to the season almost seems like a distant memory now that KC is the betting favorite to win it all at +500. Patrick Mahomes' odds to win MVP are now at just +125. Josh Allen is the only other guy with odds better than +700 now. There are plenty of reasons to agree with these predictions from the odds-makers. KC's franchise-altering QB has put up elite passer numbers this season, and a lot of that came without his top two receivers.

Mahomes ranks fourth in passing yards and is tied for fourth in touchdowns while throwing only two picks. Only Matthew Stafford has thrown two or fewer interceptions while throwing for as many yards. KC is +250 to win the AFC, with Buffalo at +370 and the Colts at +450. To gain that much confidence from the odds-makers after such a tough start to the season is impressive. It's even more impressive when considering that ESPN ranked Buffalo and Indy's strengths of schedule 23rd and 25th respectively, while the Chiefs ranked 11th.

While these stats may be more interesting than a middling, injured Commanders team, Mahomes won't allow his guys to lose focus on the game ahead of him like I've done today. It will ultimately be him and his now-robust receiver core making the biggest difference in this game, putting aside the injury to Washington's talented franchise QB. The Commanders allow the 12th-most points per game in the league, thanks largely to allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game. That would make overcoming a fully operational Chiefs offense tough even if Washington had a healthy Jayden Daniels. I'm predicting a 31-13 victory for Kansas City.

Old Narratives Regarding Raiders Rivalry Repeat

The narratives about this rivalry feel boring, but maybe that's because the Las Vegas Raiders being awful keeps the narrative the same. Most of the stats don't suggest they should be awful. The presumed upgrades at head coach and quarterback should definitely make them less awful. Still, there they are at 2-4 with a -48 point differential. They just beat the woeful Tennessee Titans last week, which is their first and only win since beating the New England Patriots 20-13 in Week 1.

Does all this make today's game one of the notorious "trap games" on the Chiefs schedule? I think it does, but just enough to ensure that KC did not take things lightly this week. I also think the psychological side of the game matters more when both teams are objectively good. While the Chiefs are finally bringing together the imposing receiver trio of Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, the Raiders are struggling to move the ball without constantly giving it to their opponent. Only three teams in the NFL have a turnover differential worse than Las Vegas' -4.

The idea that this is the time when KC may let off the gas and potentially lose a stinker also makes this game the perfect time for KC to make a point by dominating a divisional rival. The Raiders continue to be less than the sum of their parts, and the stats back that up consistently. Despite ranking 11th league-wide in total yards allowed, they rank 23rd in points allowed. Despite upgrading at quarterback and drafting a prodigious running back in the first round, only the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans have scored fewer points per game. I know 12.5 points is a big, big spread, but I think it's getting worse than that. I'm predicting a 37-17 victory for Kansas City.