KC's Offense Shows Growth While Trevor's Turnovers Terrorize Jags

     Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense experienced their most success of the season in their Week 4 victory over the currently crestfallen Baltimore Ravens. As his offense dropped 37 on Baltimore, Mahomes posted a Passer Rating of 124.8, which was 35 points better than his Ratings from any other game this season. It's his highest Passer Rating since Christmas. This brings his Passer Rating for the season up to 19th in the league, which may not sound great, but it's miles better than what we've seen from the signal-caller facing off with KC tonight. Jacksonville Jaguars franchise QB Trevor Lawrence ranks behind guys like Bryce Young, Geno Smith and the recently benched Russell Wilson at 30th place in Passer Rating this season.

    Only Geno, Joe Flacco and Jake Browning have thrown more interceptions than Lawrence so far. Trevor avoided a pick last week, but he's thrown at least one in three of his four games this season. Going back to last season, he's thrown at least one in nine of his last 11 games. Despite this, the Jags have a healthy 3-1 record and the league's best turnover differential at +9. That's two better than the second-place Pittsburgh Steelers and six better than the 8th-ranked Chiefs.

    The simple ability to play a clean game at quarterback defines entire eras for football franchises. Current evidence of this is easy to find. Before Week 5 began, Mahomes was one of only six QBs in the league who played all four games and only threw one interception. The only guy to do so without throwing any picks? Defending Super Bowl champ Jalen Hurts.

    While Trevor has a long history with turnover issues, the era of Jacksonville having an excellent turnover ratio is quite short; just last year, they finished the regular season with the fourth-worst turnover differential in the NFL. The Jags defense ranks fourth in points allowed this season, giving up just 18 points per game, so it won't be a cakewalk for KC's improving, evolving offense tonight. The Jags' defense looks strong, but it's only allowing one point fewer than KC's defense. It's also worth noting that the Jags have faced the Cincinnati Bengals when Jake Browning took most of the snaps for an injured Joe Burrow, a depleted San Francisco 49ers offense still led by a hobbling Brock Purdy, a struggling Houston Texans offense and the forever-struggling Carolina Panthers.

    Jacksonville lost that game to Browning's Bengals, by the way. I'm not calling the Jags fugazi, but, like, c'mon. While Trevor struggled against some average-at-best competition, the Chiefs faced three teams with Super Bowl aspirations and the New York Giants. Not every 2-2 team is inherently worse than every 3-1 team. I'm predicting a relatively comfortable 27-17 victory for KC.

Third-Down Improvements Key to KC Beating Baltimore, Retaining Super Bowl Hopes

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with their third elite opponent in four weeks when they meet the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead this afternoon. Now that the New York Giants brought some balance to the level of competition KC has faced, we can put more weight in the team stats accumulated so far. It's fair to think that only three games is still a small sample size, but 12 quarters is at least a good starting point for statistical analysis. I'm focusing mainly on offense and defense today, but kudos to Matt Araiza for ranking fourth league-wide so far in net punt yard average. Perhaps we'll look more closely at contributions from him and Harrison Butker when we're deeper into the regular season and there's more data to analyze.

KC's defense seems to be making strides more quickly than expected. The Chiefs rank between ninth and 11th in allowed total yards, passing yards, points per game and third-down conversion rate. That's great value for a team who is, according to Spotrac, right at league-average in spending on defense. The young talent in KC's secondary helped limit Giants' #1 receiver Malik Nabers to just two catches on seven targets for 13 yards last Sunday. Success against a receiver as good as Nabers feels huge for a Chiefs defense that will face off with guys like CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin and Baltimore's Zay Flowers.

While KC's defense is over-performing, the Chiefs offense is leaving many football fans around the world scratching their heads. KC's offense ranges from 15th to 18th in rushing yards, passing yards and total yards per game. Those are all disappointing numbers to behold for a Chiefs fan, but KC's third-down conversion rate is a far more alarming change. KC's offense is currently tied for 14th in third-down conversion rate. In their seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as a full-time starter, the Chiefs have never ranked below sixth in this category.

It's too early to be too worried about this, but the concern will grow rapidly with each week that things don't improve. Whether it's Travis Kelce looking more like his peak self or the return of KC's missing top two receivers, something needs to change to keep confident about the Chiefs' chances going forward. Clutch third-down conversions are a pillar of this dynasty's foundation. "Mahomes Magic" is a commonly used phrase in this city for a reason. Those seven seasons of Kelce and Mahomes (and Andy Reid's play-calling) dominating the league are more than enough evidence for me to predict a positive change for the Chiefs offense on third down going forward.

While the average 2025 game for KC is a 20-19 victory based on their averages for points scored and allowed, Baltimore is averaging a 37-32 victory. Lamar Jackson's long history of struggling against Mahomes and the Chiefs is the factor that gives KC the edge in this one. Lamar is 1-4 in his five chances to beat Mahomes, and Patrick has thrown for 747 more yards. I wouldn't be shocked if Baltimore wins today, but I'm still predicting a gutsy 26-23 victory for the Chiefs.

How KC Will Avoid Misery at MetLife

The way we think about this era of Kansas City Chiefs football could fundamentally change tonight. Winning against the 0-2 New York Giants on the road puts us all on the path back to normalcy, back to how we usually feel about this team. Losing at MetLife Stadium tonight would bring us to the franchise's lowest ebb since Patrick Mahomes became an NFL starter. Is the golden era of Chiefs football coming to an end, or can the Chiefs keep the good times rolling? To keep the magic alive, KC must now find a way to apply pressure to their opponent.

According to the guys at PFF, the Chiefs have the third-worst pass rush rate in football. Making the opposition uncomfortable in the pocket pays dividends in the modern NFL, and the Chiefs can't do it. I don't want to focus on excuses, but facing off with two highly-regarded quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, not to mention the highly-regarded offensive lines that protect them, may have something to do with KC's struggles in this area. When the Giants faced off with a Micah Parsons-less Dallas Cowboys defense, Russell Wilson finished the game with 450 passing yards and three touchdowns. Avoiding that kind of production is key to a Chiefs victory tonight, but Kansas City's defense will be missing a significant and pricey piece.

Chiefs defensive end Mike Danna will miss tonight's game due to a quad injury, so KC needs rookie Ashton Gillotte to step up. PFF graded both guys in the mid-50's so far this season, so perhaps the younger player with a higher ceiling could make the team better in the long-term. We'll see if Gillotte is ready to live up to the moment with his increased playing time tonight. Add him to the list of young Chiefs defenders that need to play well to keep this dynasty alive. It's nothing new to Steve Spagnuolo, and despite this concern about a lack of pass rush, Spags has still kept games close against two legit Super Bowl contenders this season.

Last week, Hurts finished with 101 passing yards and led his offense to score just 20 points. Even the great Saquon Barkley only ran for 88 yards. Herbert torched KC's young secondary in the Chiefs season opener, but Spags still put his defense in a spot where one stop on 3rd and 15 would have given Mahomes the ball back with a chance to nail a two-minute drive to win the game. This defense is not that far off from being good, despite being young. The ability to trust young talent like Gillotte, Chamarri Conner and others factors heavily into the sustainability of this dynasty. To trust the underpaid youth on the roster means everything to a championship-worthy franchise in any league with a salary cap.

That's also true for the Giants and their first-round draft pick Abdul Carter. He, along with Brian Burns and nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II, has the ability to wreck plays and ruin an opponent's game-plan. Andy Reid will need to win the chess match tonight by keeping these pieces out of dangerous positions, and I think he'll succeed just often enough for KC to get the win. The Chiefs shouldn't need 40 to beat the Giants like the Cowboys last week. The same Russ that put up a billion passing yards last week also failed to score a touchdown against the Washington Commanders in Week 1. The start of the season can be unpredictable and weird, but I'm predicting that our Chiefs begin to right the ship with a 27-20 victory tonight.

Will Persistent Penalty Problems Help Philly Fend Off KC?

Many, many things had to go wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs to lose last week's season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. With true #1 receiver Rashee Rice out due to a suspension, the Chiefs lost their next #1 when Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder less than two minutes into the game. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished his day with a Passer Rating north of 130. Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor committed four penalties in the first 32 minutes of game-time. All these issues still left KC's defense with a chance to give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth - if only they could stop the Chargers from converting on that 3rd and 14 right before the two-minute warning.

The Chiefs incurred 10 total penalties, but eight of them were incurred with more than 13 minutes on the clock in the third quarter. Four of those eight were on Jawaan Taylor, who was tied for first last season in total flags drawn. He also represented 17.27% of the Chiefs' total penalties, which was the highest percentage in the NFL last season. Taylor has constantly drawn too many penalties throughout his career, so there is little surprise that he is the most penalized player in football after Week 1. To be the biggest penalty problem on the team, and to do so by the biggest margin in the NFL, all while representing a bigger cap hit than anyone not named Mahomes, is an objectively significant problem. 

Playing that kind of ugly football against the defending Super Bowl champs will probably result in a loss for KC. Philly's defense may not be as good as last season's after some significant offseason departures, but they seem to have retained their ability to apply pressure to opposing QB's. In Week 1, the Eagles pressured Dak Prescott 13 times, but Dak was able to evade most of the contact and play a relatively clean game. If Mahomes can do the same, the opportunity for big plays down the field should present themselves. KC needs to take advantage of these moments, all while tightening up in their own secondary, if they have any real hope to win this Super Bowl rematch. 

Justin Herbert excelled in the intermediate passing game last week, according to his most recent pass chart. Young Chiefs like Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook all need to improve coverage over the middle of the field within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or Kansas City is doomed against opponents with competent quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a tough job balancing this with trying to stop future Hall of Fame back Saquon Barkley from gutting KC's interior defense all afternoon long. Spags is a master at his craft, though, and I trust him to plug the right holes with creative blitzing packages and coverage schemes today. His ability to do so, plus the Chiefs' ability to limit costly penalties today, will decide who comes away from this big rematch with a win.

Like I said, I have faith in Spags to get the chess pieces where they need to be today. I'm predicting a fun, gritty 24-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I really, really don't want to be talking about Jawaan Taylor's penalties for another week of analysis. If that happens, we'll see Jaylon Moore getting more significant snaps very soon.

Will Chiefs' Changes Make Them Better In Brazil?

Football is back, and the Kansas City Chiefs' regular season begins in Brazil. What kind of changes can we expect to see on the field this time around? Many of the pieces that make KC a championship contender every season remain in place. Today, I'll take a quick look at the biggest changes on the Chiefs roster this season. While the loss of a couple key players from 2024 may generate some concern, the offseason changes on the offensive line should result in an immediate improvement.

The Chiefs traded away future Pro Bowler Joe Thuney before the new league year began on March 12th. KC still comes into this season with a better offensive line, thanks to the signing of Jaylon Moore and the savvy decision to sign Josh Simmons in the first round. The struggles at left tackle last year were well-documented, and all signs point to Simmons being the Chiefs' answer at that position for many years to come. Kingsley Suamataia should look much better at left guard, between Simmons and elite center Creed Humphrey, than he did when struggling at left tackle last season. This is all good news for a Chiefs offense that ranked 22nd in rushing yards per game in the '24 regular season and 18th in sacks allowed per game.

Losing the guy who played 90% of snaps at the strong safety position is undoubtedly difficult to overcome. Chamarri Conner looks good, but he now has big shoes to fill, and losing your only backup SS on the roster is also a significant obstacle. Safety is probably the team's weakest position now, but strides from young talent like Conner, Bryan Cook and Jaden Hicks could compensate nicely for this. All in all, it's the only place KC objectively downgraded, as long as you like Omarr Norman-Lott as a long-term improvement over Tershawn Wharton, who just got his big payday from the Carolina Panthers. Every other position group, in my opinion, stayed roughly the same or got better. How does Brett Veach keep doing this?

KC obviously isn't alone when it comes to dealing with injuries and roster changes. The Chiefs' Week 1 opponent will miss their elite left tackle for the season because of a torn patellar tendon. As if losing Rashawn Slater wasn't enough, the Los Angeles Chargers' newly acquired lineman Mekhi Becton was on Friday's injury report with an illness that now makes him questionable for tonight's game. Even without these health issues, the unique context of this game prevents me from predicting flawless execution of the game-plan from either team. It's a stand-alone Friday night game in Brazil, and it's only the second game of the NFL season. I think the Chiefs and their coaching staff are better-equipped to deal with this weirdness than practically any other team in the league. 

I'm predicting an exciting 24-20 victory for Kansas City. The Andy Reid script for the first several plays on offense should include context-specific stuff that should give the Chiefs an early advantage. If the playing field is rough, it's always worth remembering that the offense knows where their feet are going, while the defense does not. This bodes well for the man who is probably the most creative offensive play designer of all time. Welcome back to football season, Chiefs Kingdom. Enjoy it!

Excellent Eagles Cannot Prevent Unprecedented Chiefs Three-Peat

Our Kansas City Chiefs are just hours away from their chance to do something never done before. These Chiefs have the opportunity to become the first ever team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. No back-to-back champs have ever made it back to The Big Game for a shot at #3. Standing in Kansas City's way is an imposing Philadelphia Eagles team with a superior defense, offensive line, running back and better wide receivers. Philly also has an offensive coordinator who succeeded so much in his role that he'll reportedly become the New Orleans Saints head coach once this game is over.

Eagles OC Kellen Moore deserves tons of credit for building an elite offense around Saquon Barkley and an elite offensive line. His scheme helped Saquon become just the ninth player in league history to run for 2,000 yards in a season. Philly leaned heavily on the offensive line and running back to great success this season, even when it disgruntled A.J. Brown and anyone else wanting them to air it out more often. Despite his frustrations, Brown still ranked fourth out of all qualifying receivers in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. PFF also has Devonta Smith ranked in the top-20 after he led the league in catch rate this season.

All those weapons on the Eagles' offense, and especially Barkley, gave Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo plenty to think about these past two weeks. Derrick Henry faced off with Spags' defense in the first week of this year's regular season, and he ran for just 46 yards on 13 carries in that game. Bijan Robinson ranked third in rushing yards this season behind only Henry and Saquon, but when he faced Kansas City in Week 3, he averaged only 1.9 yards over 16 carries. Bucky Irving, who ranked 10th in rushing for Tampa Bay, ran for 49 yards on 10 carries when the Chiefs beat the Bucs in overtime in Week 9. Carolina's Chuba Hubbard, who ranked 8th in rushing this season, ran for 58 with his 16 carries when he faced the Chiefs in Week 12.  That's four of the league's ten best running backs, and all of them averaged less than five yards a carry when they played Kansas City.

While KC excelled facing elite running backs, Saquon's stats against elite rushing defenses looked pedestrian. He looked good against Tampa's fourth-ranked rushing defense, averaging 8.4 yards per rush, but Philly's early  24-0 deficit in that game led to Saquon getting only 10 carries. He also faced Pittsburgh's 5th-ranked rushing defense, Green Bay's 6th-ranked rushing defense and #1-ranked Baltimore in the regular season. In all those games, he ran between 19 and 24 times and never averaged more than 4.7 yards per carry. Another Saquon performance like that today would be great news for Kansas City.

If Philly wants to keep this game competitive, they need to score way more than 19.2, which is the Chiefs' average points allowed per game in this regular season. The Eagles scored 27.2 per game in the regular season, which is good for seventh in the NFL, but that would not be enough to keep up with Playoff Mahomes. Playoff Mahomes is an absolute monster. He's simply the best at everything among everyone ever when it comes to the playoffs. Vic Fangio coordinated an excellent Eagles defense this season, but it won't be enough to stop Mahomes and Andy Reid from succeeding today.

The Eagles have a great, young secondary, a strong linebacker core led by PFF's "Breakout Player of the Year" Zack Baun and an elite blitzing attack led by edge rusher Nolan Smith and All-Pro defensive lineman Jalen Carter. These studs helped Philly allowed the least total yards and passing yards in the regular season. They ranked second behind the Chargers by just 0.1 points in scoring allowed. They held eight of their last nine regular season opponents to under 21 points. Only three of the Eagles' opponents, through the regular season and the playoffs, scored more than 23.

Mahomes told media that him vs. Fangio is "going to be a chess match", but it's really been like a chess match between Magnus Carlsen and a third-grader. Mahomes is 8-0 against Fangio-led defenses, with six of the wins coming against Fangio as head coach of the Broncos, and the other two occurring when Fangio was Miami's DC. The Kansas City Star's Blair Kerkhoff pointed out, however, that Mahomes has never faced a Fangio team this good before. Those Fangio teams scored about 12 per game, and while those Broncos and Dolphins defenses never ranked above 13th in DVOA, or Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average, the Eagles are first in the NFL. Even when facing a Philly team with an elite offense and defense, Mahomes' playoff prowess gives Kansas City the edge in today's Big Game.

A moment like this to prove one's greatness in completely unprecedented fashion is rare. Mahomes lives up to big moments with a higher rate of success than any quarterback in playoffs history. Similar consistent greatness has been shown by Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. I expect the true greats to be truly great today, but that also means Saquon could come very, very close to breaking countless hearts in Chiefs Kingdom. While the Eagles may have the better roster as a whole, I think the Chiefs' roster outclasses them when it comes to the number of players and coaches involved that are considered all-time greats. That will ultimately lead to a high-scoring, all-time moment for the NFL and a 33-27 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs.

As always, I hope you have the opportunity to enjoy it all with people who love football and love you.

Allen Again Standing In the Way of Chiefs Chasing Championship History

I want to be the guy who does deep dives on the opposition's second-stringers, and sometimes I am, but today's story being told on the field revolves around the two historically great quarterbacks trying to reach the Super Bowl. Josh Allen's greatness is the only obstacle left for a Kansas City Chiefs team trying to reach their fifth Super Bowl in six years. Allen is either the MVP or the runner-up this season. A Bills team that many pundits expected to regress wound up tying their franchise record for regular season wins, thanks largely to Allen's poised performance and a ridiculously strong team turnover differential.

The Chiefs' turnover differential of +6 was bested by only nine teams in the league this season. The Bills led the league in turnover differential by a margin of eight. Their differential is precisely four-times Kansas City's. This huge disparity exists largely because Josh Allen reduced his interceptions from 18 in 2023 to just six this season. This improvement didn't cost Buffalo their ability to score a bunch of points, either; Buffalo's starters scored at least 30 points in 12 of their 16 regular season opportunities, and they've scored at least 40 in three of their last four. The only bright side for Chiefs fans here is that this Chiefs defense - especially in the playoffs - outclasses anything the Bills experienced this season.

KC's defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in the regular season. Buffalo did not play a team that allowed fewer. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season and scored 30, and when Buffalo faced the Detroit Lions' 7th-ranked scoring defense, Allen's offense put up 48. A key factor here was Detroit finishing that game with zero sacks. Josh has been incredible using his legs this season, but he won't get away with that as much today.

Steve Spagnuolo's defense sacked Houston's C.J. Stroud eight times last week. That came from six different Chiefs and included five sacks in the fourth quarter. Spags' unique prowess in sending blitzes that confuse opposing offenses is an intriguing skill to have when facing a quarterback who excels at stealing first downs with his legs when no passing options are available. It will be fascinating to see how Spagnuolo balances his clever blitz packages with limiting Allen's running skills. Since I believe in the other Hall of Fame-caliber talent doing what they always do in the playoffs, this Spags Vs. Allen chess match should be what decides today's winner.

Today's game should be a true nail-biter. The Bills will likely win the turnover battle. Josh Allen will invariably frustrate Chiefs fans everywhere by converting some crucial third or fourth downs using his scrambling skills. The connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will continue to be the greatest in NFL history, but Buffalo's desire to limit it could lead to the potential for a home run play to someone like Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown. All this should result in an all-time classic victory for our Chiefs, 30-27, in overtime. I hope you can enjoy all of it with people who love football and love you.