Mayfield Might Make Monday More Stressful Than KC Expected

Tonight's Monday Night Football meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might wind up way closer than most experts anticipated. Yet another outcome for the Chiefs will be seriously influenced by injury. Sorry if that sounds like a bummer, and I know it's a bit of a theme this year, but that's just how it goes in full-contact sports. The Bucs looked like a sneaky-good pick to end the Chiefs' winning streak after Tampa started off 4-2, but they lost their two best wide receivers to injuries in their Week 6 victory over the Saints.

Mike Evans is out for several more weeks, and Chris Godwin's season is over. Nobody else on the roster has averaged over 43 receiving yards per game while playing in more than one game this year. The Bucs lost their last two games without Godwin and Evans healthy, but it wasn't a lack of scoring holding them back. The Bucs scored 31 on Baltimore and still lost by 10. Last week, they put up 26 on the Falcons, but they allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for four touchdowns.

Despite Baker Mayfield's remarkable resurgence with Tampa, they enter this matchup with a 4-4 record and a nine-point Vegas handicap. That isn't just because Godwin and Evans have been gone for two weeks. Tampa ranks in the bottom five in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. They've scored 26 or more and still lost in three of their last four games. With all the Chiefs' injuries and subsequent struggles on offense in mind, this could be Kansas City's perfect opportunity to find their rhythm.

I expect Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the offense to take advantage of Tampa's flaws tonight. I'm predicting a Chiefs victory, but a nine-point spread seems like a lot. Baker really does deserve credit for the work he's putting in as a Buc this season and last. He has compiled the NFL's seventh-best Passer Rating and second-highest average for passing yards per game. That consistency on offense could keep this one close. I'm picking the Chiefs to surpass 30 points for the first time since November of last season and win this game 31-24.

Chiefs Face So-Called Rivals After Acquiring All-Time Great

The 6-0 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2-5 Las Vegas Raiders do not share a rivalry. A rivalry indicates a continuous, competitive relationship with another person or party competing for the same thing. This relationship is non-competitive, and while the Chiefs are fighting for pole position in the playoffs to help them finish a three-peat, the Raiders are competing to avoid further embarrassment. The only national headlines involving the Raiders this season came when they traded away a future Hall of Fame receiver. The most recent of many national news stories covering the Chiefs involves acquiring a future Hall of fame receiver. KC may be flawed for a 6-0 team, but Raiders fans have many more unsolved issues this season.

The Las Vegas offense ranks 24th league-wide in points scored and 26th in total yards per game. The Raiders have thrown more interceptions and lost more fumbles than any team in football, resulting in a giveaway total four higher than any other team in the league. They also have just three takeaways through seven games, which is the league's second-lowest total. The Vegas defense ranks 29th in points allowed. They can't even return punts; their average for yards per punt return is the league's second-worst. There's nearly nothing positive to say about the Raiders right now.

KC, on the other hand, continues to win despite injuries altering the Chiefs' offense's gameplan practically every week of this season. Now, the proud citizens of Chiefs Kingdom can actually get excited about a recent change to Kansas City's roster. No other human signed to an NFL contract right now has more career receiving yards than KC's newest acquisition DeAndre Hopkins. D-Hop bringing his killer smile and even-more-killer resume to Kansas City should provide a major boost for an offense that ranks 13th in both passing yards and points per game. His inclusion may be gradual, but then again, Andy Reid may want to use this game as an opportunity to show the rest of the league how dangerous this new weapon can be in this new context. With all that in mind, I'm predicting that the Chiefs make a statement today with a 30-17 victory over their so-called rivals.

Chiefs Somehow Underrated Entering So-Called Super Bowl Rematch

The so-called rematch to last year's Super Bowl happens this afternoon, and the underdog in that game is the team who hasn't lost since winning it all last year. I guess I can see the odds-makers' perspective after all these Kansas City Chiefs injuries, but I'm still putting my money on the defending champs today. Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 against the spread in his career. Andy Reid is 21-4 as a head coach coming off a bye week. KC's injury concerns deserve recognition, but injuries also gave the San Francisco 49ers a unique problem to handle this week.

San Fran is starting their third kicker in three weeks after both Jake Moody and Matthew Wright suffered injuries while attempting tackles during a kick-off. This could be big for a Niners offense ranking 25th league-wide in red zone touchdown-scoring efficiency. They aren't facing many elite defenses, either. Half their opponents so far rank in the bottom eight for yards allowed, and only one ranks higher than 14th. They haven't faced a team with a defense that ranks higher than the Chiefs in both points and yards allowed per game. A quick look at their season so far would indicate that this revered 49ers squad has been inconsistent.

San Francisco has played the Jets, Vikings, Rams, Patriots, Cardinals and Seahawks. They beat the Jets, Pats and Seahawks. I know that seeing Mahomes' Passer Rating at 19th is weird, but San Fran's wins all came against QBs with ratings lower than that. Their best game of the season came against the 3-3 Seahawks, and when they face off with any other playoff-caliber opponent, they lose a close game. To think something else would happen today seems illogical, so I'm predicting a 26-20 victory for Kansas City. An extra week for Andy Reid to work out how this offense operates with the current weapons at its disposal should give the Chiefs the edge today.

Mediocre Mahomes Meets Stout Saints Defense As Greatness Eludes Entire NFL

I'm not sure that there's a single great team in the NFL right now. Our Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 entering tonight's Monday Night Football match-up with the New Orleans Saints, but we all know KC put some flaws on display and survived some close calls already. Despite the Chiefs' current concerns, they stand out like a leaky lifeboat atop an ocean of "pretty good". The only other undefeated team in football is the Minnesota Vikings, and their current QB Sam Darnold could turn back into a pumpkin any day now. The only other teams with just one loss are the intriguing-but-unproven Washington Commanders with an intriguing-but-unproven rookie QB and the Houston Texans, who have only just snuck by teams like Indy, Chicago and Jacksonville before finally sneaking by a quality opponent in Buffalo yesterday.

The San Francisco 49ers just dropped below .500. The frisky Buccaneers just lost a thriller in overtime against the two-loss Falcons. Who's really good right now? Anybody? The New Orleans Saints started off stronger than anybody, but they, too, have shown their flaws in recent weeks.

The Saints started their year with 91 points scored in their first two games. Then, they were held to 12 by the defensively unimpressive Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. Their last game was a nail-biter loss to the underrated Falcons, who won 26-24. Their offense still scores more points per game than anyone in the league through nearly five weeks of the regular season, and their defense allows the seventh-fewest points per game. New Orleans held their first three opponents all to under 20 points, and it took multiple field goals from beyond 50 yards last week for the Falcons to surpass that. It's an objectively tough defense, but KC is already familiar with facing tough defenses.

The Chiefs didn't light up the scoreboard in their win over the Chargers last week, but that isn't too surprising. KC played that game without their two best running backs and most of the game without their best wide receiver. They also faced off with arguably the best defense in football. The Chargers allow the fewest points per game in the NFL and the fifth-fewest yards per game. KC scored four more points last week than the Chargers allowed in their first two weeks of the season combined.

New Orleans also isn't facing the cream of the crop when it comes to opposing QBs. After beating Bryce Young, who ranks last in Passer Rating league-wide, they faced Dallas' Dak Prescott, whose Rating ranks 16th. The Eagles' Jalen Hurts is 25th in the NFL in Passer Rating, and Kirk Cousins ranks 15th, which is the highest Rating among any QB the Saints have faced this season. To be fair, Mahomes' oddly average start has left him with the 19th-highest Rating in the league to this point. Neither team should be expected to score a ton tonight, but that's more because of the guys who won't be on the field than the guys who will.

Injuries will significantly affect both teams today. The Chiefs are without Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown for an unknown amount of time. The Saints enter tonight's game without Taysom Hill, former Chief Willie Gay Jr. and about half their starting offensive line. Center Shane Lemieux and right guard Cesar Ruiz are both out for tonight's game, and left guard Lucas Patrick is listed as questionable. That could make it difficult for New Orleans to stop Chris Jones and George Karlaftis from pressuring our old friend Derek Carr in critical moments.

Jones already has three sacks and a forced fumble, and I expect those totals to increase tonight. The Saints' inability to stop KC's defense from making Carr uncomfortable will ultimately doom them. I'm predicting a 23-17 victory for the defending champs.

Chiefs' Struggling Stars Sent West to Best Banged-Up Chargers

The two most successful players in the most successful era of Kansas City Chiefs football are both working through the worst starts to a season they've ever experienced. The modern metrics for quarterback play indicate that Patrick Mahomes is performing at a level right between that of Gardner Minshew and Kirk Cousins. Mahomes has never had a Passer Rating this low through three games. His closest compadre on the team and fellow future Hall of Fame no-doubter Travis Kelce has 8 catches for 69 receiving yards and no touchdowns. He accomplished that in a single game five different times last season, and that was his least-productive season since 2015. 

It's actually impressive to see what KC can accomplish without Mahomes, Kelce or most of their defense being great at the moment. Despite the Chiefs defense allowing the NFL's 7th-most total yards per game, 5th-most passing yards per game and tying for the 5th-worst turnover differential, KC's record remains unblemished. After continuously finding ways to win against hungry, tough competition, the Chiefs should have the edge over this broken-down version of the Los Angeles Chargers. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out for today's game, and right tackle Joe Alt is listed as questionable. Stud linebacker Joey Bosa will also miss this game because of injury, and safety Derwin James Jr. is suspended after an illegal hit to the head on Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth last week.

When it's at full-strength, this L.A defense looks formidable. Only five teams have held their opposition to fewer yards per game than the Chargers, and only two have allowed fewer points. Do those numbers really impress you after remembering the quarterbacks they faced, though? Before losing for the first time this season to Justin Fields' Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chargers beat Gardner Minshew's Las Vegas Raiders and Bryce Young's Carolina Panthers. I know I just detailed Mahomes' current struggles, but no three-week stretch of data can change the fact that Mahomes is flat-out better than those guys. 

We also now have evidence that KC's current #1 running back can help them control the game when it matters most. Carson Steele took 17 carries for 72 rushing yards against the Falcons while Bijan Robinson ran the ball 13 times for only 31 yards. This proved crucial when the Chiefs needed to kill clock to control the game and eventually clinch it. Najee Harris did the same to the Chargers last week. That's not the only part of the Chiefs game plan that should look similar to Pittsburgh's today.

In my previous post, I noted how KC's defense could potentially limit the Falcons like T.J Watt and the Steelers did. That ended up being mostly true, as the Chiefs held a talented Atlanta offense to 17 points last week. Pittsburgh limited the Chargers in similar fashion and held them to just 10 points when L.A's offensive line was healthier. With all the Chargers' current health issues, KC can once again mirror Pittsburgh's defensive strategy for success and come away with a win. I'm predicting a 23-10 victory for the Chiefs and an efficient performance from their still-elite quarterback.

Chiefs Face Unpredictable Falcons After Running Back Roster Shake-Up

The Kansas City Chiefs found a hidden gem in the seventh round of the 2022 draft when they picked running back Isiah Pacheco out of Rutgers. KC planned to have Pacheco as their #1 back and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their #2 this season. Neither will be active for Sunday Night Football with the Atlanta Falcons tonight. Carson Steele somehow represents the most tenured active Chiefs running back, unless we're counting the returning Kareem Hunt, who was just added to the Chiefs practice squad. While KC searches for its new identity at running back, KC's defense will face off with perhaps the best running back in football.

Atlanta's Bijan Robinson represents the crown jewel of a Falcons offense stacked with young talent. From 2021-2024, The Falcons used first round draft picks on a tight end (Kyle Pitts), a receiver (Drake London), a running back (Bijan) and, oddly, a quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.). It's still too early in the season to know if the Falcons can succeed with this core of skill players plus Kirk Cousins at QB. Cousins posted a 59 Passer Rating with 155 yards, one touchdown pass and two picks in his first game as a Falcon, when T.J Watt and the Steelers seemed to disrupt Atlanta's offense with ease. That same offense looked far more frightening when Cousins posted a 117.2 Rating in a Week 2 win over the Eagles that was ultimately decided by a 4th-quarter two-minute drive for a TD.

The Falcons offense we saw in their win last week could cause problems for a Chiefs defense that's allowing the league's 4th-most yards per game this season. However, I wouldn't bet against KC's star of the secondary Trent McDuffie today - or ever. Through his 100 coverage snaps of the current season, KC's All-Pro CB has allowed just 3 catches for 26 yards. Watching Pittsburgh's T.J Watt cause chaos when he faced the Falcons leads me to believe that Chris Jones and George Karlaftis can help KC accomplish something similar. KC may not hold Kirk and the Falcons to just 10 points like Watt did, but they shouldn't need to.

Whether or not KC finds success running the ball on the Falcons, I expect the Patrick Mahomes Chiefs to score more than the Justin Fields Steelers. I genuinely believe the Chiefs could use a running back roster spot on a french poodle today and still field a better offense than Pittsburgh. Seriously, if I had to choose between my team having Justin Fields and every skill player on the Steelers roster or Patrick Mahomes and a poodle, I'm choosing the poodle package every time. The Falcons defense also experienced an overhaul and infusion of young talent this offseason, and Mahomes' passing attack will find their flaws tonight. I'm predicting a 24-17 win for the Chiefs.

No, Chiefs Kingdom, Cincy Doesn't Suck (Yet, I Think)

Re-watching that Bengals-Pats game from Week 1 was a bizarre viewing experience. Joe Burrow's offense failed to outscore Jacoby Brissett's offense, which isn't a thing I thought I would ever say. This result led many viewers to believe the Bengals are washed, but I'd advise pumping the brakes on that for now. Cincy's slow starts are well-documented, but let's just remind ourselves that they started last year's regular season with a 24-3 loss to Cleveland in which Burrow completed 45.2% of his passes for 82 yards. Zac Taylor has a 1-10 record coaching the Bengals through the first two weeks of the season. That looks ugly on a bigger picture level, but avoiding one or two very avoidable mistakes last week would've changed the current narrative in a major way.

Every team in the NFL lost at least five fumbles last season, except for one. The Cincinnati Bengals only fumbled the ball and lost it twice. When Cincy kicked off this new season with a surprising Week 1 defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots, they lost two fumbles. If the Bengals avoided one or both of those mistakes, that game could've gone in a totally different direction. The Bengals finished last season with the second-lowest total of giveaways in the NFL, so I refuse to presume that they'll cough the ball up a bunch today.

Cincinnati's inability to stop the run, on the other hand, is a consistent problem that dates back to last year. The 126.2 rushing yards per game they allowed last season was the seventh-highest average in football. Last week, the new Patriots bell cow Rhamondre Stevenson ran right through the Bengals defense. Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, Stevenson looks an awful lot like a running back with which we are all very familiar. Stevenson and Isiah Pachecho both have career averages for carries per game between 12 and 12.5, rushing yards per game between 56 and 57 and an average yards per carry of 4.6. 

Stevenson and Pacheco are remarkably similar, but the Chiefs' QB is one of the greatest athletes in the history of the universe, and the Pats' QB is currently Jacoby Brissett. This translated into the Pats running the ball far more frequently than KC last week, especially with Stevenson. New England ran the ball 39 times against the Bengals last week, with 25 of those carries going to Stevenson. The Chiefs ran the ball 20 times in total last week. Pacheco's 3.0 yards per carry in his latest performance doesn't look great, but I think the stout Ravens defense played a part in that.

Essentially, Rhamondre is one year older and gets one more six-yard reception per game than Pacheco. It sure as hell wasn't Stevenson's three receptions for six yards that killed Cincy last week, though - it was his 120 rushing yards on 25 carries. Stevenson looked particularly unstoppable when the Pats ended the game with four straight hand-offs to him that resulted in two clock-draining, game-sealing first down conversions. That was enough to give the Pats the win despite Brissett averaging five yards per pass attempt and posting a 75.2 Passer Rating.

I don't expect Cincinnati to play that poorly again, but I obviously expect Patrick Mahomes to do more to help his team than Brissett did last week. That means KC should score more than New England's total of 16 from last week, but that may not be enough to ensure victory. Whether or not Ja'Marr Chase is content right now, he needs to show out against good teams if he wants to keep his market value high. Multiple public expressions of disdain from Chase regarding the back-to-back champs seem to indicate his serious craving for a monster performance against KC. Nobody in Chiefs Kingdom should be shocked or bummed when Cincy scores way more than 10 against KC today, probably thanks to a resurgent Ja'Marr Chase.

Even though I don't consider the Bengals to be a total clown show, I expect our Chiefs to win today. Pacheco should help KC control the clock just like Rhamondre and the Patriots did when facing Cincinnati in Week 1. Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy will still be very, very difficult to all cover at the same time. I'm predicting another exciting chapter in an ever-evolving rivalry and a 27-20 win for the Chiefs.