Mediocre Mahomes Meets Stout Saints Defense As Greatness Eludes Entire NFL

I'm not sure that there's a single great team in the NFL right now. Our Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 entering tonight's Monday Night Football match-up with the New Orleans Saints, but we all know KC put some flaws on display and survived some close calls already. Despite the Chiefs' current concerns, they stand out like a leaky lifeboat atop an ocean of "pretty good". The only other undefeated team in football is the Minnesota Vikings, and their current QB Sam Darnold could turn back into a pumpkin any day now. The only other teams with just one loss are the intriguing-but-unproven Washington Commanders with an intriguing-but-unproven rookie QB and the Houston Texans, who have only just snuck by teams like Indy, Chicago and Jacksonville before finally sneaking by a quality opponent in Buffalo yesterday.

The San Francisco 49ers just dropped below .500. The frisky Buccaneers just lost a thriller in overtime against the two-loss Falcons. Who's really good right now? Anybody? The New Orleans Saints started off stronger than anybody, but they, too, have shown their flaws in recent weeks.

The Saints started their year with 91 points scored in their first two games. Then, they were held to 12 by the defensively unimpressive Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. Their last game was a nail-biter loss to the underrated Falcons, who won 26-24. Their offense still scores more points per game than anyone in the league through nearly five weeks of the regular season, and their defense allows the seventh-fewest points per game. New Orleans held their first three opponents all to under 20 points, and it took multiple field goals from beyond 50 yards last week for the Falcons to surpass that. It's an objectively tough defense, but KC is already familiar with facing tough defenses.

The Chiefs didn't light up the scoreboard in their win over the Chargers last week, but that isn't too surprising. KC played that game without their two best running backs and most of the game without their best wide receiver. They also faced off with arguably the best defense in football. The Chargers allow the fewest points per game in the NFL and the fifth-fewest yards per game. KC scored four more points last week than the Chargers allowed in their first two weeks of the season combined.

New Orleans also isn't facing the cream of the crop when it comes to opposing QBs. After beating Bryce Young, who ranks last in Passer Rating league-wide, they faced Dallas' Dak Prescott, whose Rating ranks 16th. The Eagles' Jalen Hurts is 25th in the NFL in Passer Rating, and Kirk Cousins ranks 15th, which is the highest Rating among any QB the Saints have faced this season. To be fair, Mahomes' oddly average start has left him with the 19th-highest Rating in the league to this point. Neither team should be expected to score a ton tonight, but that's more because of the guys who won't be on the field than the guys who will.

Injuries will significantly affect both teams today. The Chiefs are without Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown for an unknown amount of time. The Saints enter tonight's game without Taysom Hill, former Chief Willie Gay Jr. and about half their starting offensive line. Center Shane Lemieux and right guard Cesar Ruiz are both out for tonight's game, and left guard Lucas Patrick is listed as questionable. That could make it difficult for New Orleans to stop Chris Jones and George Karlaftis from pressuring our old friend Derek Carr in critical moments.

Jones already has three sacks and a forced fumble, and I expect those totals to increase tonight. The Saints' inability to stop KC's defense from making Carr uncomfortable will ultimately doom them. I'm predicting a 23-17 victory for the defending champs.

Chiefs' Struggling Stars Sent West to Best Banged-Up Chargers

The two most successful players in the most successful era of Kansas City Chiefs football are both working through the worst starts to a season they've ever experienced. The modern metrics for quarterback play indicate that Patrick Mahomes is performing at a level right between that of Gardner Minshew and Kirk Cousins. Mahomes has never had a Passer Rating this low through three games. His closest compadre on the team and fellow future Hall of Fame no-doubter Travis Kelce has 8 catches for 69 receiving yards and no touchdowns. He accomplished that in a single game five different times last season, and that was his least-productive season since 2015. 

It's actually impressive to see what KC can accomplish without Mahomes, Kelce or most of their defense being great at the moment. Despite the Chiefs defense allowing the NFL's 7th-most total yards per game, 5th-most passing yards per game and tying for the 5th-worst turnover differential, KC's record remains unblemished. After continuously finding ways to win against hungry, tough competition, the Chiefs should have the edge over this broken-down version of the Los Angeles Chargers. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out for today's game, and right tackle Joe Alt is listed as questionable. Stud linebacker Joey Bosa will also miss this game because of injury, and safety Derwin James Jr. is suspended after an illegal hit to the head on Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth last week.

When it's at full-strength, this L.A defense looks formidable. Only five teams have held their opposition to fewer yards per game than the Chargers, and only two have allowed fewer points. Do those numbers really impress you after remembering the quarterbacks they faced, though? Before losing for the first time this season to Justin Fields' Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chargers beat Gardner Minshew's Las Vegas Raiders and Bryce Young's Carolina Panthers. I know I just detailed Mahomes' current struggles, but no three-week stretch of data can change the fact that Mahomes is flat-out better than those guys. 

We also now have evidence that KC's current #1 running back can help them control the game when it matters most. Carson Steele took 17 carries for 72 rushing yards against the Falcons while Bijan Robinson ran the ball 13 times for only 31 yards. This proved crucial when the Chiefs needed to kill clock to control the game and eventually clinch it. Najee Harris did the same to the Chargers last week. That's not the only part of the Chiefs game plan that should look similar to Pittsburgh's today.

In my previous post, I noted how KC's defense could potentially limit the Falcons like T.J Watt and the Steelers did. That ended up being mostly true, as the Chiefs held a talented Atlanta offense to 17 points last week. Pittsburgh limited the Chargers in similar fashion and held them to just 10 points when L.A's offensive line was healthier. With all the Chargers' current health issues, KC can once again mirror Pittsburgh's defensive strategy for success and come away with a win. I'm predicting a 23-10 victory for the Chiefs and an efficient performance from their still-elite quarterback.

Chiefs Face Unpredictable Falcons After Running Back Roster Shake-Up

The Kansas City Chiefs found a hidden gem in the seventh round of the 2022 draft when they picked running back Isiah Pacheco out of Rutgers. KC planned to have Pacheco as their #1 back and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their #2 this season. Neither will be active for Sunday Night Football with the Atlanta Falcons tonight. Carson Steele somehow represents the most tenured active Chiefs running back, unless we're counting the returning Kareem Hunt, who was just added to the Chiefs practice squad. While KC searches for its new identity at running back, KC's defense will face off with perhaps the best running back in football.

Atlanta's Bijan Robinson represents the crown jewel of a Falcons offense stacked with young talent. From 2021-2024, The Falcons used first round draft picks on a tight end (Kyle Pitts), a receiver (Drake London), a running back (Bijan) and, oddly, a quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.). It's still too early in the season to know if the Falcons can succeed with this core of skill players plus Kirk Cousins at QB. Cousins posted a 59 Passer Rating with 155 yards, one touchdown pass and two picks in his first game as a Falcon, when T.J Watt and the Steelers seemed to disrupt Atlanta's offense with ease. That same offense looked far more frightening when Cousins posted a 117.2 Rating in a Week 2 win over the Eagles that was ultimately decided by a 4th-quarter two-minute drive for a TD.

The Falcons offense we saw in their win last week could cause problems for a Chiefs defense that's allowing the league's 4th-most yards per game this season. However, I wouldn't bet against KC's star of the secondary Trent McDuffie today - or ever. Through his 100 coverage snaps of the current season, KC's All-Pro CB has allowed just 3 catches for 26 yards. Watching Pittsburgh's T.J Watt cause chaos when he faced the Falcons leads me to believe that Chris Jones and George Karlaftis can help KC accomplish something similar. KC may not hold Kirk and the Falcons to just 10 points like Watt did, but they shouldn't need to.

Whether or not KC finds success running the ball on the Falcons, I expect the Patrick Mahomes Chiefs to score more than the Justin Fields Steelers. I genuinely believe the Chiefs could use a running back roster spot on a french poodle today and still field a better offense than Pittsburgh. Seriously, if I had to choose between my team having Justin Fields and every skill player on the Steelers roster or Patrick Mahomes and a poodle, I'm choosing the poodle package every time. The Falcons defense also experienced an overhaul and infusion of young talent this offseason, and Mahomes' passing attack will find their flaws tonight. I'm predicting a 24-17 win for the Chiefs.

No, Chiefs Kingdom, Cincy Doesn't Suck (Yet, I Think)

Re-watching that Bengals-Pats game from Week 1 was a bizarre viewing experience. Joe Burrow's offense failed to outscore Jacoby Brissett's offense, which isn't a thing I thought I would ever say. This result led many viewers to believe the Bengals are washed, but I'd advise pumping the brakes on that for now. Cincy's slow starts are well-documented, but let's just remind ourselves that they started last year's regular season with a 24-3 loss to Cleveland in which Burrow completed 45.2% of his passes for 82 yards. Zac Taylor has a 1-10 record coaching the Bengals through the first two weeks of the season. That looks ugly on a bigger picture level, but avoiding one or two very avoidable mistakes last week would've changed the current narrative in a major way.

Every team in the NFL lost at least five fumbles last season, except for one. The Cincinnati Bengals only fumbled the ball and lost it twice. When Cincy kicked off this new season with a surprising Week 1 defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots, they lost two fumbles. If the Bengals avoided one or both of those mistakes, that game could've gone in a totally different direction. The Bengals finished last season with the second-lowest total of giveaways in the NFL, so I refuse to presume that they'll cough the ball up a bunch today.

Cincinnati's inability to stop the run, on the other hand, is a consistent problem that dates back to last year. The 126.2 rushing yards per game they allowed last season was the seventh-highest average in football. Last week, the new Patriots bell cow Rhamondre Stevenson ran right through the Bengals defense. Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, Stevenson looks an awful lot like a running back with which we are all very familiar. Stevenson and Isiah Pachecho both have career averages for carries per game between 12 and 12.5, rushing yards per game between 56 and 57 and an average yards per carry of 4.6. 

Stevenson and Pacheco are remarkably similar, but the Chiefs' QB is one of the greatest athletes in the history of the universe, and the Pats' QB is currently Jacoby Brissett. This translated into the Pats running the ball far more frequently than KC last week, especially with Stevenson. New England ran the ball 39 times against the Bengals last week, with 25 of those carries going to Stevenson. The Chiefs ran the ball 20 times in total last week. Pacheco's 3.0 yards per carry in his latest performance doesn't look great, but I think the stout Ravens defense played a part in that.

Essentially, Rhamondre is one year older and gets one more six-yard reception per game than Pacheco. It sure as hell wasn't Stevenson's three receptions for six yards that killed Cincy last week, though - it was his 120 rushing yards on 25 carries. Stevenson looked particularly unstoppable when the Pats ended the game with four straight hand-offs to him that resulted in two clock-draining, game-sealing first down conversions. That was enough to give the Pats the win despite Brissett averaging five yards per pass attempt and posting a 75.2 Passer Rating.

I don't expect Cincinnati to play that poorly again, but I obviously expect Patrick Mahomes to do more to help his team than Brissett did last week. That means KC should score more than New England's total of 16 from last week, but that may not be enough to ensure victory. Whether or not Ja'Marr Chase is content right now, he needs to show out against good teams if he wants to keep his market value high. Multiple public expressions of disdain from Chase regarding the back-to-back champs seem to indicate his serious craving for a monster performance against KC. Nobody in Chiefs Kingdom should be shocked or bummed when Cincy scores way more than 10 against KC today, probably thanks to a resurgent Ja'Marr Chase.

Even though I don't consider the Bengals to be a total clown show, I expect our Chiefs to win today. Pacheco should help KC control the clock just like Rhamondre and the Patriots did when facing Cincinnati in Week 1. Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy will still be very, very difficult to all cover at the same time. I'm predicting another exciting chapter in an ever-evolving rivalry and a 27-20 win for the Chiefs.

"Punt God" Looked Human In Chiefs Debut

Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach successfully kept a core of consecutive Super Bowl winners intact. He knew, though, that being mostly, almost, basically as good as last year is not the right plan for a dynasty. Improving in a league with a salary cap requires creativity. Veach regularly puts that kind of creativity on display with his budgetary strategies, drafting skills and his philosophy about the free agency market. Whether his attempt to improve the team with this latest change at punter remains to be seen.

After being cleared of some serious legal allegations, Matt Araiza, known on social media platforms as "Punt God", penned a new deal with the Chiefs. This came after parting ways with Tommy Townsend. Araiza undoubtedly has a big leg capable of flipping the field when KC gets stuffed deep in their own territory. He looked good doing this in the preseason, but his attempts at a coffin corner punt looked less-than-godly against the Ravens.

Araiza's first punt as a Chief came on KC's second possession of the game, and he boomed it into the end zone from the Chiefs' 44 yard-line. That clearly wasn't the best outcome, as it resulted in a net gain of 36 yards. On his second attempt, KC wanted a coffin corner punt from the Baltimore 40. Araiza's punt resulted in another ball in the end zone and a net gain of 20 yards. This was a major momentum shift in Baltimore's favor.

His last punt of the day showed Chiefs Kingdom more of what we wanted from Araiza. A booming kick from KC's 42 and strong special teams coverage forced the Ravens to start their crucial last possession at their 13. The Chiefs will have a dynamic, high-scoring offense this year, and pairing that with a new, different punter brings up new strategic questions for the Kansas City coaching staff. It almost seems strategically incongruous to have this potentially great offense and focus the punting strategy on the (hopefully) rare moments when the offense gets stuck deep in their own territory.

It obviously helps to have a big leg on a punter that practically never allows your opponent to start with great field position, but I really love it when KC's defense goes up against an opponent's offense pinned against their own goal line. I remember Tommy doing that a lot, which is perhaps why the Houston Texans quickly scooped him up. I may have reservations now, but after a few more god-like bombs in clutch moments, I'll probably be stoked about the change. This self-proclaimed deity of punting should be able to deliver coffin corner kicks with more consistency over the span of the entire season. If the Chiefs get the best of both worlds out of him, chalk it up as just another clever way that Brett Veach made a great team greater. 

That's part of the reason why I have the Chiefs going 14-3 and grabbing the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs this season. Stay tuned for the rest, as well as more detailed recaps of the Ravens game and the rest of Week 1 in the NFL.

3 Biggest Changes to Chiefs 2024 Roster

Our Kansas City Chiefs won their second straight Super Bowl 207 days ago. Tonight, NFL football returns in impressive fashion as the Chiefs take the field at Arrowhead to face off with the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and his revenge-driven Baltimore Ravens. A lot happened in our world over those couple-hundred days, but we're here to talk about what really matters - how has the roster for the back-to-back champs changed since then? Here are the three biggest changes to KC's roster for the start of the 2024 season:

 

3: Secondary

Should we get the bad news out of the way first? KC's secondary won't be as good this season, or at least not to start the season, without L'Jarius Sneed. He played in 91% of the defense's regular season snaps - the most on the team last year. Sneed emerged as a top-tier, versatile cornerback, and he's a Titan now because his remarkable efforts on the field priced him out of Brett Veach's very successful budgeting strategy. I'm not complaining. Veach never pays too much when building a secondary, and it's worked extremely well for the Chiefs, so I obviously trust the process. 

However, Sneed wasn't the only significant piece of the secondary KC lost this offseason. Free safety Mike Edwards played in every game and 57% of the defense's snaps in the regular season, as well as over 27% of special teams snaps. While the Chiefs are hopeful that the loss of Sneed will be lessened by improved play from Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson, they're confident they can overcome losing Edwards thanks to emerging talent at the safety position. Chamarri Conner and Bryan Cook were both respectable defenders last year, according to Pro Football Focus and other analytics experts. KC also just drafted a versatile strong safety with an incredibly high ceiling in Jaden Hicks. That versatility could allow him to help at the strong safety position if it ever suits the defense's needs.

 

2:  Linebackers

Like Edwards, Willie Gay Jr. played in 57% of the Chiefs' defense's snaps last season. KC has only addressed this by re-signing Drue Tranquill and announcing an increased role for third-year linebacker Leo Chenal. That's a major change. Cam Jones and Jack Cochrane return to round out a Chiefs linebacker core that is unproven at best. They lost Gay and added...nobody.

It seems like trusting younger talent to get better will be a theme for the Chiefs this season. I guess I can't really knock it until Brett Veach stops winning Super Bowls.

1: Pass-Catching Options

Marques Valdez-Scantling played in over 54% of KC's snaps on offense last season. Jerick McKinnon and Kadarius Toney both played in over 20%. None of them made the regular season Chiefs roster. Rashee Rice led the team in snaps for receivers with only four more than MVS. By replacing that time on the field with speedster rookie Xavier Worthy and newcomer Hollywood Brown when he gets healthy, the Chiefs should have a nearly objective improvement at that position.

JuJu Smith-Schuster presumably will get significant playing time when injuries necessitate it, and the team justifiably trusts Justin Watson in meaningful moments. Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore should both be determined, if nothing else, to prove they aren't obsolete in this revamped offense. This will be a big change for Chiefs fans, but not a bad one. Cast your mind back to early-season 2023 when the Chiefs receiving room looked like one of football's worst. When Brown comes back, this year's group of pass-catching threats may be one of the league's best.

Honorable mentions go to Donovan Smith, Tommy Townsend and Blake Bell. Bell's 22% of snaps on offense last year will go to a high-ceiling rookie in Jared Wylie and the recently traded-for Peyton Hendershot. I'll consider that a wash or a slight upgrade based on Wylie's potential. Smith played in 66% of the offense's snaps last regular season. He'll be replaced by the 63rd overall pick in the latest draft, Kingsley Suamataia, as well as a returning Wanya Morris, who played in 30% of the offense's snaps last season. Smith wasn't an elite lineman, so a change there for a highly touted rookie could make KC better by the time they reach the playoffs.

Now, will this revamped Chiefs roster hold up against the apparently very hungry Ravens? Everyone keeps telling me the Ravens are going to be hungry for revenge, hungry for victory, hungry to make a statement tonight. Aren't the Chiefs also hungry to make a statement? Adding Derrick Henry and losing pieces to their defense should make this a higher-scoring game than the AFC Conference Championship last year. The result will stay the same, though. I'm predicting a 24-20 Chiefs victory to start their fight for a three-peat and keep the fans in Baltimore bummed.

Stay tuned this weekend for some slightly late predictions on the whole season to come, as well as some more content on everyone's favorite football topic - punting. Welcome back to football season, Chiefs Kingdom. Enjoy it with people who love football and love you.

Mahomes Magic in Major Moments Eagerly Expected

Chiefs Kingdom, today we once again reach the zenith of the football fan experience. Our Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers just hours from now to decide this year's Super Bowl champion. The stakes are at their absolute highest, and two quarterbacks who took dramatically different paths to get here are both desperate to end this part of their story in ultimate victory. We're talking about the $450-million man and the guy making $985K this season. We're talking about the guy with the best start to a career in this sport's history facing off against Mr. Irrelevant. It's one hell of a story already.

For Patrick Mahomes, more greatness is expected, because much greatness has already been produced. His career postseason Passer Rating now stands at 106.3. Since losing to Tampa in the Super Bowl, Patrick's worst performance was a 91.3 Passer Rating, which came from that loss to the Bengals that ended the 2021 Chiefs' season. In that nine-game playoff stretch, Mahomes has recorded a Passer Rating above 130 three times and completed over 73% of his passes six times. After six seasons as a starter, his trophy shelf is already full of more accomplishments than anybody not named Brady or Montana. The Chiefs have never failed to reach the Conference Championship with Mahomes as their starter, and they reach the Super Bowl 2/3rds of the time. 

Nobody in football history has a resume like that. That's not bad for a guy the NFL supposedly figured out last season by masterfully reconfiguring their defense into this mysterious, complex, brand-new concept known as "Cover 2". That's not bad for a guy whose offense was deemed broken and unfixable as recently as Christmas. It feels like it's been about a year-and-a-half, but about seven weeks ago, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Christmas Monday. That was the last time the Chiefs lost and the last time Mahomes threw a pick. That's a worthy reminder of just how low we felt (or I felt, I should say) about this team at times through the regular season. 

This Chiefs offense wasn't supposed to be good enough to get them here. Some pundits thought they'd underperform in the frigid KC weather in the Wild Card Round against Miami. More thought Buffalo would finally get their pound of flesh from KC when they met in Orchard Park in the Divisional Round. Most recently, a vocal majority proclaimed with justified reasoning that Baltimore would be the team to stop KC from reaching another Big Game. Baltimore, with Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton and Patrick Queen, should've been the team to stop the Chiefs offense, and especially to stop them from attacking multiple levels of the field to leave Travis Kelce open. Mahomes targeted Kelce 11 times, and Kelce had 11 catches for 116 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Despite Brock Purdy's remarkable accomplishments throughout the last couple seasons, we can safely say KC has the better quarterback in today's game. I can actually see similarities in how we're viewing the quarterbacks, head coaches and defenses in this Super Bowl face-off. All three facets of both teams could be considered elite, yet the Chiefs are better in all three. San Fran's defense has been great at times this season, but they've struggled mightily in these playoffs against quarterbacks not named Mahomes and tight ends not named Kelce. San Fran's defense left them with a deficit in the fourth quarter against Jordan Love's Packers, and the Niners only regained the lead in that game with 1:07 left on the clock. They most recently allowed 31 points to Jared Goff's Lions. 

While San Francisco's defense has struggled in the playoffs against teams with offenses less frightening and experienced than the Chiefs, Kansas City's defense has been excellent against teams with other elite offenses. Miami's offense dominated all season long and scored seven points on KC when playoff-time arrived. The great-but-often-overrated Josh Allen played well against KC but failed to score enough to win when he finally got the Chiefs on his home turf in the playoffs. Then, the prolific offense helmed by league MVP Lamar Jackson was limited to a touchdown and a field goal in their unceremonious playoff exit two weeks ago. Teams that dedicated years of focus and funding on beating the Chiefs, teams that built themselves from the ground up to beat the Chiefs, all failed to stop KC from reaching yet another Super Bowl.

San Francisco's offense is elite by every measure. They were top-five in regular season total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and points per game. Only five teams in the league finished the regular season with fewer giveaways. Purdy had too many tight-window throws and come-from-behind drives to deserve the "game manager" tag, especially when his tendency to be aggressive betrays that more than anything else. The fact that he's a legit franchise QB should no longer be questioned, as long as his price tag remains so remarkably low. He deserves his flowers, but he also is the reason I'm predicting San Fran to lose this game.

The Niners' kicker is susceptible to mistakes, while Harrison Butker has been rock solid all year long, and San Fran racked up the second-most penalty yards in football, but I still don't think these will be the deciding factors in this game. Purdy's inability to be as magic as Mahomes will be why me and many others predict a victory for KC today. I know that's like judging a really good basketball player for not being LeBron or a really good rapper for not being Kendrick, but it's the truth. We have a reasonable expectation of Patrick Mahomes to do ridiculous stuff that keeps drives alive when they should die, because that is what he always does. Brock can have a great game and still come up short today.

Plenty of NBA teams in the '90's went up against Jordan's Bulls and suffered heart-breaking defeat. I assume they felt the way Purdy's Niners are about to feel. Sometimes you just go up against an unstoppable force and lose. That's what happened to a lot of teams in the Jordan Era of pro basketball. Now, in the heart of the NFL's Mahomes Era, it's time for Brock and his team to feel that pain. As always, I hope you enjoy this moment with people who love football and love you.

27-20, Chiefs.