Carson Can Keep Colorado Clash Close

Ice and snow blanket the Kansas City streets today, but the Red and Gold Report refuses to rest. Many key starters for the Chiefs will rest today, though, because the #1 seed is already assured. Chris Jones, Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes are all sitting out today as healthy non-participants. Jawaan Taylor and Isiah Pacheco will sit due to short-term injury concerns. Even with all these key pieces of KC's starting roster taking today off, there is no guarantee for victory for the Chiefs' opposition.

The 9-7 Denver Broncos can clinch a playoff berth with a win today, but a loss ends their season. A team that relies on a defense ranking fifth in the NFL in total yards allowed per game will now need to trust a rookie quarterback in his first do-or-die scenario. The guy the Chiefs are playing at quarterback isn't so bad, by the way. Carson Wentz is a 32-year-old former Pro Bowler and a #2 overall draft pick. In his last full season as a starter, he played 17 games for the Indianapolis Colts and posted a 94.6 Passer Rating. That Rating was 17th in the league, while Mahomes' Rating from that year ranked 15th.

Denver's potential franchise QB Bo Nix has compiled a Passer Rating of 89.2 in his rookie campaign. He's thrown two fewer touchdown passes and five more interceptions than Wentz when Wentz played his last full season. I know Vegas has the Broncos favored at home by 10.5 points, but I'm not so sure that the Carson Wentz Chiefs are more than a touchdown and a field goal worse than the Broncos. Left tackle D.J Humphries and a big chunk of the Chiefs secondary will be going at full-speed to get playoff-ready today. That's enough to make me believe the Chiefs will cover the spread, but I can't go all the way and predict a KC victory. I'm predicting a 23-20 defeat for the resting, reigning champs.

Steeler's Won't Sour Kansas City's Christmas

I'm not used to waking up on Christmas and watching Kansas City Chiefs football. It still feels weird, doesn't it? Last time around, things didn't turn out so great for the defending champs. KC lost on this day in 2023 to the Raiders, but they went on to never lose a game for the rest of that season and for another nine games into the next season. Here's to hoping the Chiefs can start a similar run without suffering a similar defeat today.

It's weird to experience live Chiefs football on Christmas, but live Chiefs football on a Wednesday is even weirder. This short week has compounded injury problems for both rosters. Jawaan Taylor and Chris Jones are listed as questionable for today's game. Pittsburgh's Ben Skowronek and Joey Porter Jr. are both out today, but emerging young receiver George Pickens will be back in action. A weakened Chiefs pass-rush could keep things closer than KC would like.

Thankfully for Chiefs Kingdom, the Chiefs still have the advantage against Pittsburgh and, to be fair, everyone else in the league when it matters most. Their third-down conversion rate on offense is now at 50.95%, a full 2% better than the rest of the league. Pittsburgh's defense allows the fifth-lowest third-down conversion rate to opponents this season, so each critical third-down moment for the Chiefs offense will be a strength-on-strength matchup. KC's defense, on the other hand, ranks 20th in opponents' third-down conversion rate. That's a subpar facet of the Chiefs defense which is objectively strong in most other statistical categories right now, which has resulted in the league's third-lowest points-per-game allowed. The 2024 Chiefs currently allow just 0.2 more points per game than the league-leading Los Angeles Chargers.

That impressive defense gave the Chiefs time to find their stride on offense while struggling through injuries. Now, it looks like that offense is finding its rhythm at just the right time. We just watched Hollywood Brown return and immediately make an impact in the passing game with five catches and eight targets. Xavier Worthy completed his current career high of seven passes in his second straight game with 11 targets. The Chiefs continue to get this offense fully operational before it's do-or-die against playoff teams with a proven ability to put a bunch of points on the board.

Another reason for confidence in a Chiefs win today is Patrick Mahomes' domination of the Steelers in an admittedly small two-game sample size. In those two games, Mahomes threw for 584 passing yards, nine touchdowns and no picks. His 148.2 Passer Rating in those two games is the best Rating he has against any team in the league. I like this Chiefs offense with Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood all healthy and involved, so I like the Chiefs in this game, 27-20. I truly hope you get a chance to enjoy the game and the holiday with people you love.

Will Tough Texans Test Mahomes' Messed-Up Ankle?

Chiefs Kingdom is concerned about Patrick Mahomes. No, it's not because of his relatively low Passer Rating in 2024. The Kingdom is concerned about Mahomes - the most important athlete in Kansas City sports history - facing a strong Houston Texans pass-rush after an ankle injury. Houston ranks second league-wide in sacks with 45, and prior to last week's game, the Chiefs went through a three-game stretch when they allowed Mahomes to get sacked 13 times. Keeping Mahomes upright and healthy today will be key in keeping the 11-3 Buffalo Bills far away from the #1 seed in the AFC playoff bracket.

A hamstring injury to newly acquired left tackle D.J. Humphries could make this difficult, but I'm not worried about KC overcoming this issue. Last week, the Chiefs responded to this injury by placing all-time great left guard Joe Thuney at the left tackle position. This resulted in exactly zero sacks allowed for Kansas City. Mahomes obviously still dealth with pressure to the point where his ankle got twisted up and hurt, but it doesn't take a major in mathematics to know that zero sacks is the best number of sacks to allow. The rest of the math indicates that KC will have a tough time scoring on this stout Texans defense regardless of Mahomes' ability to overcome this much-talked-about bum ankle.

Houston's defense ranks in the top ten in passing yards and points allowed this season. They rank fourth overall in total yards allowed. Their defense also excels at forcing turnovers. The Texans defense currently ranks second league-wide in interceptions and total takeaways with 19 and 28, respectively. All this is evidence that Kansas City will struggle to score a bunch, but even Texans fans would agree that the Chiefs don't need 30 points on the board to achieve victory today.

C.J. Stroud is experiencing a legitimate sophomore slump. His impressive rookie season Passer Rating of 100.8 has dropped to 89 this season. His future is still bright, but it's a clear and noteworthy drop-off in production. Stroud's passing yards-per-game average is down over 40 yards, he's nearly doubled his interception total, and he's thrown six fewer touchdown passes in this season's 14 games than in the 15 games he played in last season. With both QB's in today's game not living up to their lofty standards of excellence, it may be time for the running backs to shine.

Despite missing key pieces to their rushing attack throughout practically the entire season, the Chiefs have raised their rushing yards-per-game average from 104.9 last season to 112.1. With a healthy Isiah Pacheco and a Kareem Hunt with way more tread on the tires than almost anyone expected, that average can be improved upon over these last three games of the season. For that reason, I'm expecting KC to win a gritty 20-16 game today. KC has a nice two-game cushion over Buffalo in that race for the #1 seed, but the Bills play the Pats twice in three weeks with the Jets in-between. KC's chance to secure the playoffs bye week and also rest their starters in the final week of the regular season will be all the motivation they need to finish the regular season looking strong.

Myles Garrett Might Scare Chiefs' Struggling Pass Protection

I feel like I talk about the Kansas City Chiefs' left tackle situation every week, and guess what? That ain't changing today. I slept through my alarm, and I'm writing this late, so please pardon the from-the-hip style of this article. KC's left tackle position has been flawed, whether it's rookie Kingsley Suamataia, Wanya Morris, or recently signed D.J Humphries. Today, they'll be tasked with stopping one of the world's most imposing threats at edge rusher.

Myles Garrett is second in the league in sacks. He's been in the top seven in sacks over the last four seasons. Mahomes has already been sacked 35 times, which is more than any other season in his career. When the Cleveland Browns win, it's because Myles Garrett disrupted the opposing team's offense. Garrett racked up three sacks - two from lining up opposite the left tackle and one from the right side - in just the first half in Cleveland's Week 12 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

He's really their only positive for the Browns right now, though. Cleveland's defense is in the bottom half in total yards and rushing yards allowed per game, and they allow the seventh-most points per game. They do rank 11th in opponent's third down conversion rate, but the Chiefs currently convert at the highest rate in the league. If KC really fails to cover Garrett, this could be one of the silly games they occasionally lose on their way to achieving greatness. I don't think that will happen, though. I'm predicting an ugly 20-13 victory for Kansas City.

Herbert's Consistently Clean Play Could Present Problems for KC

Instead of making quick work of the Raiders last week like I expected, The Kansas City Chiefs won yet another ugly game. Tonight, the competition gets much tougher when the Chiefs face off with the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers look great on paper - great coach, great quarterback, great defense. However, their lopsided record this season is a bit of a mirage. While KC keeps proving that they can win hotly contested, ugly games, the Chargers have only proven that they can beat opponents that are mediocre-at-best.

The Chargers have only beaten one team that currently has a winning record - The 8-4 Denver Broncos. Every other legit team they've faced - the Steelers, Chiefs, Cardinals and Ravens - defeated them. When they win, the Chargers' defense defines "bend, don't break" more than any other team in football. Despite ranking just 10th-best or lower in allowing total yards, passing yards and rushing yards, L.A allows the fewest points per game by a wide margin. The teams ranked second to seventh in the league right now all allow between 18 and 18.7 points a game. The Chargers allow just 15.7 points per game.

Pairing their strong defense with Justin Herbert's ability to limit turnovers has been key to the Chargers' success so far. Patrick Mahomes has thrown a surprisingly high 11 interceptions this season, which is eleven-times more than Herbert has thrown. Herbert's newly acquired wisdom has helped the Chargers to the third-best turnover differential in the league, and it should help them keep tonight's game close. The Chargers offense lost numerous recognizable names like Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but Herbert is actually averaging more yards per attempt this season than in any other season in his career. His Passer Rating this season is 0.1 points lower than it was in the best season of his career.

All this should add up to a tough, tight ballgame. It's important to remember how banged-up KC is on special teams; their kick returner and their last three kickers are all missing today's game due to injury. As long as the Buffalo Bills stay hot on the Chiefs' heels in the race for the top seed in the conference, KC will have motivation to keep winning through these last five regular season games. The Chiefs only mustered 17 points last time they faced the Chargers, but L.A could only score a touchdown and field goal each in that game. I'll go with another low-scoring affair decided by only a handful of key moments. I'm predicting a 20-17 victory for Kansas City.

KC Should Make Quick Work of Unreliable Raiders

The 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs are back at Arrowhead to face the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders in a rare Friday afternoon game. Chiefs fans are hopeful their team keeps hold of the #1 seed in the playoff bracket, while Raiders fans are presumably hopeful that a top-five pick in next year's draft could make them less miserable. Kansas City just added D.J. Humphries for some much-needed help at left tackle, while the Raiders just lost their starting QB Gardner Minshew to a season-ending collarbone fracture. KC already beat the Raiders less than three weeks ago when Vegas had a healthy Minshew. There's little reason for hope for the Raiders today, or any time soon.

Nobody runs the ball for fewer yards per game than Las Vegas this season. That leads to struggles with moving the sticks and controlling the clock, as is evident by the Raiders ranking 25th league-wide in average time of possession. The Chiefs' effective rushing attack paired with strong coaching has led to them ranking fourth in average time of possession this season. I suspect that the Chiefs wish to dispose of the Raiders with minimal drama and risk to player health, so they should bleed clock when they have the lead. With an over/under of 42 points in today's game, I'd undoubtedly lean towards betting the under. 

Anyone predicting a win for the Raiders today is just a troll or a clickbait creator. Patrick Mahomes' career Passer Rating of 108.5 against the Raiders suggests that he enjoys beating up on the noisy little brother of the division. Vegas' rankings in points scored and points allowed have dropped off since last season. They're the worst team the Chiefs will face all year aside from the Panthers, but KC didn't exactly destroy Carolina last week, so perhaps today's game won't be as lopsided as the 13.5-point spread would indicate. For the record, Vegas lost to those same Panthers by two touchdowns in Week 3. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for the Chiefs that feels like more of a blowout than the final score indicates.

Panthers Pose No Challenge to Chiefs' Playoffs Pole Position

The 9-1 Kansas City Chiefs still hold pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC, but the legs of Josh Allen dashed KC's hopes for an undefeated season last week. In Orchard Park, the Chiefs suffered defeat for the first time since last Christmas. This week, they're back to the noon slate for a road game with the 3-7 Carolina Panthers. This version of the Panthers, like most versions of the Panthers over the last decade, seems hopeless. In their last six seasons, the Panthers have employed seven head coaches and finished last in their division four times. Nothing about this year's stats indicates a positive change coming soon.

Their 3-7 record is actually far better than the numbers would have us think. After beating the Raiders for their first win in Week 3, the Panthers lost five straight games, all by multiple possessions. Then they beat the 4-7 Saints by one and the 2-8 Giants in overtime. For the sake of reference, the 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars are objectively awful this season, and their point differential of -108 is the second-worst in the league. Carolina is currently at -143.

I've heard a lot about Patrick Mahomes' Passer Rating looking relatively ugly this season, but Bryce Young's Rating ranks 35th in the league. That means he's playing worse than both the backups who played for Miami when Tua was hurt, both the QBs who have started for Tennessee and Cooper Rush. Carolina's defense is allowing the most points per game of any team in the NFL. This is in large part to them allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL. The only category in which Kansas City matches the Panthers' subpar status is the turnover differential; the Panthers and Chiefs are tied for ninth-worst in the NFL with a -5.

So, what kind of positive takeaways can I mention about this current version of the Panthers? Well, Chuba Hubbard has rushed for over 90 yards in five games this season. That's nice, right? It's nicer than anything I can think to say about their other skill players on offense. Five different Panthers have had the highest receiving yards total in a game this season. Not on that list is Xavier Legette, their latest first-round draft pick.

The Chiefs are not perfect this season, and their record finally reflects that in earnest. That does not mean they're susceptible to losing games to teams like the Panthers. KC has an interior offensive line so great that Pro Football Focus names the Chiefs' offensive line as the second-best in the league despite Kansas City's significant struggles at the left tackle position. Carolina's aforementioned inability to stop the rush will doom them against the Chiefs and any other competent teams they play this year. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for Kansas City.