Real Rivalry Renewed as Chiefs Face Bills in Buffalo

The 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs have already vanquished numerous so-called rivals this season, but today, the Chiefs finally face off with a team worthy of that label. Kansas City ended the Buffalo Bills' last season in the divisional round of the playoffs with a 27-24 victory at Arrowhead. The Bills have won the regular season meeting between these two AFC powerhouses in their last three chances, but KC has ended Buffalo's bid for a Super Bowl in three of their last four seasons. It's safe to say that all the ingredients for true beef are available in this star-studded afternoon matchup. While the Bills enter this game with the league's second-highest scoring margin and third-highest scoring offense, KC enters this game with some obvious and unresolved flaws.

The Chiefs kept their undefeated streak alive through serious adversity, and that won't change in Orchard Park today. KC has been walking a tightrope these last two weeks with an overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a last-second blocked field goal to beat the Denver Broncos 16-14. The Chiefs' issues at left tackle are glaring and well-documented, and the absence of Harrison Butker, who's quickly becoming one of the most prolific kickers in NFL history, will be felt this afternoon. KC's turnover differential also holds them back from being the best version of themselves. While KC's turnover rate of -4 ties them for the league's 9th-worst, the Bills come into this game with a differential four better than any other team in football.

Those turnover numbers for Buffalo are remarkable in every way. The Bills rank fifth in interceptions and third in fumbles forced, totaling in the second-most takeaways in football. Josh Allen's offense has fumbled twice and thrown four picks, resulting in the league's fourth-fewest total giveaways. That means Allen is on pace to throw fewer than eight interceptions after three consecutive years of throwing at least 14. That improvement has changed the way fans and pundits league-wide view the Bills this season.

One thing that never changes is Patrick Mahomes' ability to be great when it matters most, despite his relatively pedestrian stats throughout the season. In the rare moments when he doesn't come through, the special teams and defense bail Mahomes out anyway - at least so far. I'm still predicting a Chiefs victory today because of Patrick's apparent inability to fail in the fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson has posted an insane 121.3 Passer Rating in his 80 fourth quarter pass attempts. He's the only QB who's played the majority of this season and compiled a higher Rating in the fourth quarter than Mahomes. That kind of consistent clutch performance is why I'm picking the Chiefs to overcome the Bills in a 24-23 thriller.

How Coaching Rookies Affects Revived Chiefs-Broncos Rivalvry

It's hard to tell if the Denver Broncos are legit this season. If they are, the Kansas City Chiefs may have their first real divisional rival in years. The Broncos are 5-4 with their freshly drafted quarterback Bo Nix, who gives those fans more hope than they've had in a decade. Denver also just lost by 31 points and allowed the football equivalent of a perfect game to be thrown by the opposing quarterback. The Broncos' defense looked awesome before last week's 41-10 stinker against Lamar Jackson's Ravens, and despite that, Denver still only has one win against a team with a record above 3-6.

The Broncos defense ranks sixth in passing yards and total yards allowed per game and third overall in points allowed per game. Their offense ranks in the bottom ten in each of those categories. Bo Nix's Week 7 performance against Carolina was the best of his early career, but last week against Baltimore - who allows the most passing yards per game and ninth-most points per game in the NFL - was easily his worst. It's not often you see a week-to-week difference in Passer Rating above 58 points. Broncos head coach Sean Payton is apparently a quarterbacks guru, so Nix's response to this unpredictable two weeks of play will reflect Payton's effectiveness in what is supposedly his strong-suit. 

The undefeated Chiefs exhibit their weaknesses every time they take the field while still, ya know, winning all the time. The left tackle position in particular is worryingly inconsistent, which factors heavily into a Patrick Mahomes Passer Rating that ranks 18th league-wide. Whether it's Wanya Morris or rookie Kingsley Suamataia taking the lion's share of snaps at that spot today, every passing week Andy Reid gets to strategize his way around that flaw should further improve the KC offense. Despite being sacked four times last week, Mahomes had his first three-touchdown performance of the season and finished the game with his highest completion percentage of the season. The growth of future Hall of Famer DeAndre Hopkins' role in the offense also looked like it made an immediately positive impact.

This game means the world to a Denver team that's hungry for a signature win. With the enviable burden of an undefeated record, the Chiefs also have immeasurable motivation entering today's game. Despite my far-too-consistent ramblings about Mahomes' statistical mediocrity this season, his numbers on third down, in the red zone and in the fourth quarter all point to a quarterback and a team that refuse to lose. I'll take the safe bet and predict that this won't change today against a Denver team that has proven its ability to lose to teams with flaws far more damaging that Kansas City's. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for our Chiefs - the defending and dominant rulers of the AFC West.

Mayfield Might Make Monday More Stressful Than KC Expected

Tonight's Monday Night Football meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might wind up way closer than most experts anticipated. Yet another outcome for the Chiefs will be seriously influenced by injury. Sorry if that sounds like a bummer, and I know it's a bit of a theme this year, but that's just how it goes in full-contact sports. The Bucs looked like a sneaky-good pick to end the Chiefs' winning streak after Tampa started off 4-2, but they lost their two best wide receivers to injuries in their Week 6 victory over the Saints.

Mike Evans is out for several more weeks, and Chris Godwin's season is over. Nobody else on the roster has averaged over 43 receiving yards per game while playing in more than one game this year. The Bucs lost their last two games without Godwin and Evans healthy, but it wasn't a lack of scoring holding them back. The Bucs scored 31 on Baltimore and still lost by 10. Last week, they put up 26 on the Falcons, but they allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for four touchdowns.

Despite Baker Mayfield's remarkable resurgence with Tampa, they enter this matchup with a 4-4 record and a nine-point Vegas handicap. That isn't just because Godwin and Evans have been gone for two weeks. Tampa ranks in the bottom five in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. They've scored 26 or more and still lost in three of their last four games. With all the Chiefs' injuries and subsequent struggles on offense in mind, this could be Kansas City's perfect opportunity to find their rhythm.

I expect Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the offense to take advantage of Tampa's flaws tonight. I'm predicting a Chiefs victory, but a nine-point spread seems like a lot. Baker really does deserve credit for the work he's putting in as a Buc this season and last. He has compiled the NFL's seventh-best Passer Rating and second-highest average for passing yards per game. That consistency on offense could keep this one close. I'm picking the Chiefs to surpass 30 points for the first time since November of last season and win this game 31-24.

Chiefs Face So-Called Rivals After Acquiring All-Time Great

The 6-0 Kansas City Chiefs and the 2-5 Las Vegas Raiders do not share a rivalry. A rivalry indicates a continuous, competitive relationship with another person or party competing for the same thing. This relationship is non-competitive, and while the Chiefs are fighting for pole position in the playoffs to help them finish a three-peat, the Raiders are competing to avoid further embarrassment. The only national headlines involving the Raiders this season came when they traded away a future Hall of Fame receiver. The most recent of many national news stories covering the Chiefs involves acquiring a future Hall of fame receiver. KC may be flawed for a 6-0 team, but Raiders fans have many more unsolved issues this season.

The Las Vegas offense ranks 24th league-wide in points scored and 26th in total yards per game. The Raiders have thrown more interceptions and lost more fumbles than any team in football, resulting in a giveaway total four higher than any other team in the league. They also have just three takeaways through seven games, which is the league's second-lowest total. The Vegas defense ranks 29th in points allowed. They can't even return punts; their average for yards per punt return is the league's second-worst. There's nearly nothing positive to say about the Raiders right now.

KC, on the other hand, continues to win despite injuries altering the Chiefs' offense's gameplan practically every week of this season. Now, the proud citizens of Chiefs Kingdom can actually get excited about a recent change to Kansas City's roster. No other human signed to an NFL contract right now has more career receiving yards than KC's newest acquisition DeAndre Hopkins. D-Hop bringing his killer smile and even-more-killer resume to Kansas City should provide a major boost for an offense that ranks 13th in both passing yards and points per game. His inclusion may be gradual, but then again, Andy Reid may want to use this game as an opportunity to show the rest of the league how dangerous this new weapon can be in this new context. With all that in mind, I'm predicting that the Chiefs make a statement today with a 30-17 victory over their so-called rivals.

Chiefs Somehow Underrated Entering So-Called Super Bowl Rematch

The so-called rematch to last year's Super Bowl happens this afternoon, and the underdog in that game is the team who hasn't lost since winning it all last year. I guess I can see the odds-makers' perspective after all these Kansas City Chiefs injuries, but I'm still putting my money on the defending champs today. Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 against the spread in his career. Andy Reid is 21-4 as a head coach coming off a bye week. KC's injury concerns deserve recognition, but injuries also gave the San Francisco 49ers a unique problem to handle this week.

San Fran is starting their third kicker in three weeks after both Jake Moody and Matthew Wright suffered injuries while attempting tackles during a kick-off. This could be big for a Niners offense ranking 25th league-wide in red zone touchdown-scoring efficiency. They aren't facing many elite defenses, either. Half their opponents so far rank in the bottom eight for yards allowed, and only one ranks higher than 14th. They haven't faced a team with a defense that ranks higher than the Chiefs in both points and yards allowed per game. A quick look at their season so far would indicate that this revered 49ers squad has been inconsistent.

San Francisco has played the Jets, Vikings, Rams, Patriots, Cardinals and Seahawks. They beat the Jets, Pats and Seahawks. I know that seeing Mahomes' Passer Rating at 19th is weird, but San Fran's wins all came against QBs with ratings lower than that. Their best game of the season came against the 3-3 Seahawks, and when they face off with any other playoff-caliber opponent, they lose a close game. To think something else would happen today seems illogical, so I'm predicting a 26-20 victory for Kansas City. An extra week for Andy Reid to work out how this offense operates with the current weapons at its disposal should give the Chiefs the edge today.

Mediocre Mahomes Meets Stout Saints Defense As Greatness Eludes Entire NFL

I'm not sure that there's a single great team in the NFL right now. Our Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 entering tonight's Monday Night Football match-up with the New Orleans Saints, but we all know KC put some flaws on display and survived some close calls already. Despite the Chiefs' current concerns, they stand out like a leaky lifeboat atop an ocean of "pretty good". The only other undefeated team in football is the Minnesota Vikings, and their current QB Sam Darnold could turn back into a pumpkin any day now. The only other teams with just one loss are the intriguing-but-unproven Washington Commanders with an intriguing-but-unproven rookie QB and the Houston Texans, who have only just snuck by teams like Indy, Chicago and Jacksonville before finally sneaking by a quality opponent in Buffalo yesterday.

The San Francisco 49ers just dropped below .500. The frisky Buccaneers just lost a thriller in overtime against the two-loss Falcons. Who's really good right now? Anybody? The New Orleans Saints started off stronger than anybody, but they, too, have shown their flaws in recent weeks.

The Saints started their year with 91 points scored in their first two games. Then, they were held to 12 by the defensively unimpressive Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. Their last game was a nail-biter loss to the underrated Falcons, who won 26-24. Their offense still scores more points per game than anyone in the league through nearly five weeks of the regular season, and their defense allows the seventh-fewest points per game. New Orleans held their first three opponents all to under 20 points, and it took multiple field goals from beyond 50 yards last week for the Falcons to surpass that. It's an objectively tough defense, but KC is already familiar with facing tough defenses.

The Chiefs didn't light up the scoreboard in their win over the Chargers last week, but that isn't too surprising. KC played that game without their two best running backs and most of the game without their best wide receiver. They also faced off with arguably the best defense in football. The Chargers allow the fewest points per game in the NFL and the fifth-fewest yards per game. KC scored four more points last week than the Chargers allowed in their first two weeks of the season combined.

New Orleans also isn't facing the cream of the crop when it comes to opposing QBs. After beating Bryce Young, who ranks last in Passer Rating league-wide, they faced Dallas' Dak Prescott, whose Rating ranks 16th. The Eagles' Jalen Hurts is 25th in the NFL in Passer Rating, and Kirk Cousins ranks 15th, which is the highest Rating among any QB the Saints have faced this season. To be fair, Mahomes' oddly average start has left him with the 19th-highest Rating in the league to this point. Neither team should be expected to score a ton tonight, but that's more because of the guys who won't be on the field than the guys who will.

Injuries will significantly affect both teams today. The Chiefs are without Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown for an unknown amount of time. The Saints enter tonight's game without Taysom Hill, former Chief Willie Gay Jr. and about half their starting offensive line. Center Shane Lemieux and right guard Cesar Ruiz are both out for tonight's game, and left guard Lucas Patrick is listed as questionable. That could make it difficult for New Orleans to stop Chris Jones and George Karlaftis from pressuring our old friend Derek Carr in critical moments.

Jones already has three sacks and a forced fumble, and I expect those totals to increase tonight. The Saints' inability to stop KC's defense from making Carr uncomfortable will ultimately doom them. I'm predicting a 23-17 victory for the defending champs.

Chiefs' Struggling Stars Sent West to Best Banged-Up Chargers

The two most successful players in the most successful era of Kansas City Chiefs football are both working through the worst starts to a season they've ever experienced. The modern metrics for quarterback play indicate that Patrick Mahomes is performing at a level right between that of Gardner Minshew and Kirk Cousins. Mahomes has never had a Passer Rating this low through three games. His closest compadre on the team and fellow future Hall of Fame no-doubter Travis Kelce has 8 catches for 69 receiving yards and no touchdowns. He accomplished that in a single game five different times last season, and that was his least-productive season since 2015. 

It's actually impressive to see what KC can accomplish without Mahomes, Kelce or most of their defense being great at the moment. Despite the Chiefs defense allowing the NFL's 7th-most total yards per game, 5th-most passing yards per game and tying for the 5th-worst turnover differential, KC's record remains unblemished. After continuously finding ways to win against hungry, tough competition, the Chiefs should have the edge over this broken-down version of the Los Angeles Chargers. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out for today's game, and right tackle Joe Alt is listed as questionable. Stud linebacker Joey Bosa will also miss this game because of injury, and safety Derwin James Jr. is suspended after an illegal hit to the head on Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth last week.

When it's at full-strength, this L.A defense looks formidable. Only five teams have held their opposition to fewer yards per game than the Chargers, and only two have allowed fewer points. Do those numbers really impress you after remembering the quarterbacks they faced, though? Before losing for the first time this season to Justin Fields' Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chargers beat Gardner Minshew's Las Vegas Raiders and Bryce Young's Carolina Panthers. I know I just detailed Mahomes' current struggles, but no three-week stretch of data can change the fact that Mahomes is flat-out better than those guys. 

We also now have evidence that KC's current #1 running back can help them control the game when it matters most. Carson Steele took 17 carries for 72 rushing yards against the Falcons while Bijan Robinson ran the ball 13 times for only 31 yards. This proved crucial when the Chiefs needed to kill clock to control the game and eventually clinch it. Najee Harris did the same to the Chargers last week. That's not the only part of the Chiefs game plan that should look similar to Pittsburgh's today.

In my previous post, I noted how KC's defense could potentially limit the Falcons like T.J Watt and the Steelers did. That ended up being mostly true, as the Chiefs held a talented Atlanta offense to 17 points last week. Pittsburgh limited the Chargers in similar fashion and held them to just 10 points when L.A's offensive line was healthier. With all the Chargers' current health issues, KC can once again mirror Pittsburgh's defensive strategy for success and come away with a win. I'm predicting a 23-10 victory for the Chiefs and an efficient performance from their still-elite quarterback.