Can KC Claim Conference Crown by Beating Burrow's Boasting Bengals?

Arrowhead Stadium will soon serve as host for a major moment in NFL history, so I believe now's a proper time to remember how the Chiefs arrived at this exciting moment. The best moments of history are often made possible by its worst moments, and the history of Kansas City Chiefs football is no different. KC made the best drafting decision in franchise history when they picked Patrick Mahomes in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but this was a reversal of the last three and a half decades of Chiefs strategy.

The choice to bring in Mahomes came after Kansas City declined the opportunity to draft a quarterback in the first round for 34 consecutive seasons since they went with a guy named Todd Blackledge. This QB that the Chiefs acquired during the Reagan Era never led his own team in passing yards over a single season and ended his career with a completion percentage below 50%. Blackledge would never earn a long-term starting role for any franchise, and the Chiefs would go on to finish in last place in their division in four of the six seasons following their choice to choose a QB in the draft's first round. The Chiefs failed to survive the divisional round of the playoffs in the 23 seasons since winning Super Bowl IV, until a San Francisco 49ers cast-off named Joe Montana led KC to a losing effort in the AFC Championship in 1992.

The trend of sticking with quarterbacks who got their start with other franchises continued in KC for another two and a half decades, with the likes of Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, Matt Cassel and all the way up to key Mahomes mentor Alex Smith. Since Smith passed the torch to Mahomes, Kansas City has been in the hunt for a Super Bowl victory every season. It only took the franchise nearly half a century to reverse its quarterback-drafting strategy and become the incumbent dynasty of pro football. It just so happens that the QB standing in the way of more glory for KC and Mahomes is practically the only man who has successfully stopped KC every chance he's had.

Despite having serious injury issues to their offensive line last week, Joe Burrow overcame a Bills defense that many NFL experts trusted as being Super Bowl-worthy. Unfortunately for fans in KC, Joe plays the Chiefs better than he plays any other team in football. Burrow has only played one regular season game against the Atlanta Falcons, and in it he threw for 481 yards, three touchdowns and never turned the ball over while completing over 80% of his passes. Burrow has played two regular season games agains the Chiefs and somehow compiled a higher Passer Rating in those two games combined than he did in his dominating performance against the Falcons.

In the playoffs, Burrow seems less dominant against KC, with only 240 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pick in last year's AFC Championship. It wasn't Ja'Marr Chase killing KC in last year's playoff meeting, either; he only caught six out of nine passes sent his way for 54 receiving yards. It was Tee Higgins who claimed the lion's share of receiving yards that day, with 103. It was Joe's patience and ability to convert on third downs that truly killed Kansas City. 

While Joe Burrow chases Patrick Mahomes for the claim to be the league's greatest QB, Mahomes chases the all-time greats already in the history books. Otto Graham, who played in six total seasons for the Cleveland Browns from 1950-1955, is the only player in AFL-NFL history to record a higher QB winning percentage than Mahomes through at least 17 games. While Mahomes will soon claim his second league MVP award, he may also be weeks away from winning his second Super Bowl. You may already know, but it's worth repeating: the Chiefs are hosting their fifth straight AFC Championship, which is a league record. Mahomes has helped Travis Kelce become inarguably the best to ever play his position, and Mahomes has cemented Andy Reid's position as one of the five or ten greatest pro football coaches of all time. Winning this game keeps Mahomes on pace to legitimately stake his claim one day as the greatest football player ever.

All this conversation about superlatives and history books means nothing when it comes to the little things that actually decide who will achieve victory this Sunday. As much as I like waxing poetic about #15's greatness, other factors beyond his control will drastically impact who goes to the Super Bowl and who starts planning their vacation a few weeks earlier than they had hoped. A key factor to keep in mind this Sunday is Cincy's vulnerability on the offensive line due to the absences of Bengals left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa.

Perhaps Buffalo failed to expose Cincy's injured offensive line, and perhaps KC learned from that mistake after seeing last week's Bills-Bengals game. KC's defense ranks 7th league-wide in opponent quarterbacks' percentage of plays hurried, 9th in quarterback knockdown percentage and 5th in pressure percentage. The Packers and Jaguars are the only other teams in football that can claim to be 9th-best or better in all those categories. Buffalo ranges between 13th and 15th in all those categories, for the record, so maybe KC's reliance on guys like Chris Jones and Frank Clark could be beneficial to Chiefs Kingdom this Sunday.  

Last year's AFC Championship game truly came down to the Chiefs' inability to score to start the second half. With a 21-10 advantage, Kansas City punted in four out of five of their next drives to start the third quarter. The other drive in there was an interception by Mahomes. Before the end of the of the third quarter, Cincy had 24 points on the board. 

One field goal in the second half simply is not enough scoring to beat a legit team like the Bengals. Only once since then has KC failed to score seven or more in any half of football, and that came in their embarrassing Week 3 loss to the Colts. If KC can simply avoid going ice-cold on offense, which is something they almost never do, they should have the advantage this time.

Despite the rivalry's recent history and concern about Mahomes' ankle, I have to predict a win for the Chiefs. I have no clue how to calculate the odds to beat a team as uniquely great as the Chiefs four times straight, but let's just say it's a uniquely difficult task to achieve. Burrow is due to flinch and make a mistake that gives the Chiefs an advantage, and Mahomes is ready to go get revenge. I'm predicting a 27-24 KC victory and another chance at Super Bowl glory for Chiefs Kingdom.

Trap-Game Trevor's Red-Hot Jags Could Concern KC

Do-or-die Kansas City Chiefs football happens today, right here in KC, and the Chiefs are the betting favorite to win another Super Bowl. It doesn't get much better than this for Chiefs Kingdom. However, a prodigy fresh off a legendary comeback playoff win could end all that fun by dinner-time. The Jacksonville Jaguars just gained some serious momentum, and they've proven their toughness time and time again this season. After starting 2-6, the Jags found their footing and won their last six games.

Many of those wins came against legit competition. Since losing 27-17 to KC in Week 10, Jacksonville bounced back with wins over Baltimore, the Cowboys, the Jets in Week 16 and two over the Titans. Trevor Lawrence looked elite for the second half of the season and the second half of last week's victory over the Chargers. Unfortunately for him, the man on pace to be the greatest football player of all time stands between Trevor and a fairy tale championship run.

Mahomes-Lawrence comparisons will naturally steal attention away from the rest of the roster and coaching staff involved today, so let's keep in mind the other Chiefs putting their bodies on the line to directly and literally prop up Mahomes Magic. The Chiefs' offensive line did its job all season long by keeping Mahomes safe. Only the Lions and Bucs allowed fewer sacks in the regular season. Some of the credit clearly goes to Patrick's ability to escape pressure, but the coaching scheme and the offensive line synergized with Mahomes' skill-set to create one of the most potent offenses in this sport's entire history. Andrew Wylie and Trey Smith, along with Pro Bowlers Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. all deserve love from the Kingdom for allowing this offense to reach such legendary heights.

All of that production on offense could still result in disappointment, however, if KC can't defeat the red-hot newcomers to AFC playoff relevancy. Jacksonville's offensive line also deserves credit for keeping their franchise QB safe this season, as they limited Lawrence's times sacked to the fifth-fewest in football. While the Chiefs ranked first in total yards, passing yards and points per game, the Jags ranked 10th in those categories, and as I mentioned before, they ended the regular season far better than they started it. This game has all the drama and flavor necessary to be one of this year's most memorable playoff games.

Either the Jags give KC a good scare and ultimately fall in thrilling fashion, or the Chiefs dominate. I believe those are the only two feasible outcomes to today's game. A Jags upset win is unlikely but possible if KC loses the turnover battle and finds other ways to shoot themselves in the foot. Barring a lopsided turnover margin, the Chiefs will overcome the Jags today. I'm predicting a 34-27 thriller that reminds Chiefs Kingdom just how fun this new era of AFC competition can be for the next decade.

Stidham, Vegas Seek Vengeance As Chiefs Seek Bye Week

Only the downtrodden Las Vegas Raiders stand between the Kansas City Chiefs and the AFC's #1 seed. The Raiders will once again start career-backup Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, and their defense will omit Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman. These changes should help make this a stress-free Saturday in Chiefs Kingdom, but I'm not so sure. Raiders fans desperately desire a rivalry here, but no true rivalry exists when the competition is completely lop-sided, and Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 in his career against the Raiders. Despite a depleted roster, the Raiders probably see this strange Saturday game as the Super Bowl for spoilers.

I still want to believe that today's game will be an easy test for the Chiefs, but KC played down to inferior teams all season long, and they only snuck past Vegas by a point in their previous meeting. Also, Stidham looked legit last week when Vegas scored 34 and took San Fran to overtime. His 77.4 QBR in that game was only matched by Mahomes once in KC's last four games. However, Mahomes' season average for QBR sits at 77.8, which is less a knock on Stidham and more evidence that KC's golden boy should earn his second MVP award this season.

I would love to predict a blow-out victory for KC, but they converted on only 22.22% of their third downs last week - the lowest percentage in the NFL in Week 17. The Chiefs aren't facing Denver's beefy defense this week, though, and the Raiders defense ranks among the NFL's bottom eight in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Maybe Stidham's more studly than I anticipated, but he is most certainly not on the level of soon-to-be-MVP Patrick Mahomes. 

The Chiefs give me no peace of mind when facing subpar opponents, thanks to their aforementioned struggles against them all season long, but they also earned the benefit of the doubt by overcoming those struggles almost every time. Also, Patrick Mahomes would give this team the benefit of the doubt even if the rest of the roster didn't deserve it. I'm predicting a frustrating 37-31 victory for the reigning division champs. The Chiefs, specifically the leaders on this Chiefs roster, rarely disappoint in a game of this magnitude, especially when facing such ineffectual opposition.

Division in Disarray as Chiefs Chase #1 Seed

Our Kansas City Chiefs won enough this year to stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed with only two regular season games left. Meanwhile, the hapless Denver Broncos just fired their head coach midseason. Elsewhere in the AFC West, the similarly hapless Las Vegas Raiders just told their starting QB and two stand-out defenders to take a seat on the bench until the season's over. At least Chargers fans have a 9-6 record and the prodigious Justin Herbert to keep them hopeful. Neither the Broncos or Raiders have a head coach or a QB who has earned enough trust to give their fans a shadow of hope next season. That's gotta hurt.

It would also hurt if the Chiefs pooped the bed by losing to either one of these hopeless teams with the #1 seed still within reach. The Broncos have a -1 turnover differential on the season, which is better than KC's -5, and their defense still ranks seventh-best or higher in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Those are the only things Denver can claim to do better than Kansas City. Russell Wilson and the statistically horrible offense he leads hasn't stopped being horrible over the last three weeks, if you can believe that. Denver also has serious penalty problems, which was probably a factor in deciding to give their head coach the boot before the season was over. 

The Titans, who played their 16th game of the season Thursday, lead the league in yards lost to penalties with 917. Denver has lost 912 yards to penalty while playing one less game. The third-highest amount of yards lost to penalty is 76 yards fewer. That third-worst ranking belongs to the Raiders, by the way, who will face KC in the regular season's final week.

The Broncos need more than a different head coach if they want to beat the Chiefs while KC is still fighting for a first-round bye in the playoffs. I'm predicting a routine 31-14 Chiefs victory that keeps their hopes for reclaiming the #1 seed in the conference alive. It feels great to be a citizen of Chiefs Kingdom, especially while witnessing two of our divisional "rivals" fail to deliver for their success-hungry fanbases.

Seattle's Struggles, KC's Concerns Collide On Cold Christmas Eve

I knew the Seattle Seahawks were 6-3 at one point, and I knew Geno Smith kept showing up next to names like Mahomes and Allen when I looked at the QB stats each week. This made me incorrectly assume Seattle was decent, if not pretty damn good, until looking into it further. The Seahawks have played 14 games so far this season, and somehow, only four of those were against teams who now have winning records. Half of them are the San Francisco 49ers. Only two of their seven victories came against teams who currently have winning records. They've lost four of their last five, including dropping games to the Bucs, Raiders and Panthers. 

Last week, Seattle suffered a predictable Thursday night defeat at the hands of the impressive San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs, meanwhile, must feel at least a little humbled after back-to-back weeks of sub-par performances against sub-par opponents. KC barely lost to the Bills and Bengals, but they barely avoided losing to the Broncos and Texans. This leaves their identity somewhat blurred at the moment, but the identity of their franchise QB should never be doubted.

Patrick Mahomes' average for passing yards in a game this season is now a full 34 yards higher than #2 in the league, Justin Herbert. Eight other quarterbacks are within 34 yards of Herbert's average. Maybe saying that Bears quarterback Justin Fields is half the quarterback Mahomes is sounds insulting, but it's actually statistically undeniable right now. It seems almost cruel to put these stats together in a sentence, but KC's QB has racked up more than twice as many passing yards per game and touchdown passes as Chicago's QB.

Comparing Fields and Mahomes feels unfair, but comparing KC's mega-star to Geno seems more reasonable. Unfortunately for Smith and the Seahawks, Geno hasn't compiled a QBR above 66 over the last five weeks. Mahomes hasn't compiled a QBR below that over the last eight weeks. That being said, Geno's season numbers still look solid, and he only plays on one side of the football. He deserves only a small portion of the blame for the Seahawks' recent problems.

Seattle scores the seventh-most points per game in the NFL, and their offense didn't exactly disappear over this recent rough patch. Over the last five games, the Seahawks average 22.8 points per game, which falls between the average points per game of the 12th- and 13th-best scoring offenses in football. Seattle's defense deserves scrutiny for the team's inability to win lately. On the season, the Seahawks give up the league's fourth-most points per game. Over the last five games, they've given up an average of 27 points per game. That's worse than any current season total of any team in the NFL. A team cannot expect to win against good opponents with a defense struggling as much as this.

The Chiefs may not seem as trustworthy as they did before stumbling through the last few weeks, but Seattle's recent struggles looked inarguably worse. I know that's a hard thing for Chiefs Kingdom to hear after we almost watched KC lose to the Texans, but a simple glance at the standings proves it. A desperate Seahawks team led by a legit veteran QB could make Chiefs fans sweat for a second this Saturday, but Seattle's inability to limit Mahomes should be their downfall. I'm predicting a 34-24 victory for KC. I know the weather will be nasty, but hey, feeling that cold sucks just as much for the defense as it does for the offense.

Oh, and here's my holiday gift to all of you: Isiah Pacheco averages 80 yards on the ground over his last six games, ever since becoming a bigger factor in the Chiefs offense due to Clyde Edwards-Helaire's injury. Where I'm betting, his over/under for rushing yards this Christmas Eve is at 71. Enjoy your holiday, and more importantly, enjoy your sports and your gambling.

How Can KC Avoid Embarrassment In Houston?

Last week, the Chiefs stunk about as badly as they could stink while still winning. Today, they'd have to stink more than the worst team in football to lose, because they're facing the worst team in football. The one-win Houston Texans aren't good at very many things, so if this game turns out to be a close one, it will be because of Chiefs mistakes. Houston hung in there with the legit Dallas Cowboys last week, so KC must stay disciplined today in order to avoid a huge disappointment.

Houston deserves some credit for avoiding flags this year, though it clearly hasn't resulted in much success. Their 494 yards lost to penalties is second-lowest in the NFL. The Chiefs have lost the league's 14th-fewest yards to penalty. Badly timed penalties can make seemingly lopsided games into thrillers, but it was Patrick Mahomes' three interceptions last week that kept it close against the Broncos. The Texans picked off Dak Prescott twice last week, which kept things close in Dallas, too. 

KC's turnover differential has been disappointing all season long; only the Rams, Colts and Saints have worse differentials. There are only five teams with fewer takeaways than KC's 14. With all that being said, the Chiefs secondary are lining up against Davis Mills, who has thrown the second-most picks in the NFL in only 11 starts. Now is the time for KC's turnover stats to regress to the mean. 

KC has everything to lose today, but a win over the Texans won't have Chiefs Kingdom jazzed up or feeling like they  learned much about their team. Today's a day to just take care of business and get out of Texas with a victory. Chiefs win, 31-23, and stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed. Buffalo still needs to beat Cincy and the pesky Patriots to end their regular season, so that bye-week in the playoffs could still belong to KC.

How Many MVP Candidates Can You Pay With Russell Wilson's Contract?

The Kansas City Chiefs must be hungry to show their skills after a disappointing loss to Joe Burrow's resilient Cincinnati Bengals. The Denver Broncos must be deflated after crashing to the bottom of their division thanks largely to the struggles of their well-paid Subway spokesman playing quarterback. These simple facts make this week's Chiefs-Broncos game particularly easy to analyze and predict.

The Broncos actually have terrific numbers on defense, which makes Russell Wilson's legacy-tarnishing ineffectiveness even more painful for their fans. Perhaps Denver's defensive stats are in fact skewed by how little their opponents need to score in order to win. Whatever the case may be, the Broncos allow the NFL's third-fewest total yards, third-fewest passing yards and second-fewest points per game. This represents a nearly unmatched level of prowess on that side of the ball, yet it resulted in a hopeless losing season for Denver. They're about to finish last in a division that includes a team coached by Josh McDaniels.

I know it's the trendy thing to dunk on Russell Wilson right now, but any honest analysis of this Denver team makes more dunking inescapable. Judging by any metric we could possibly use to measure quarterback performance, Wilson has been one of the five worst at his position this year. His Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating are 28th and 29th, respectively. He leads one of only five teams who have already accumulated nine losses this season. For the price Denver is paying for Russell's services, they could instead double Geno Smith's salary, pay that, and also pay Joe Burrow. Geno and Joe are on pace to get MVP votes on the new five-vote ballots. Russell is on pace to never film another sandwich commercial again. 

Wilson's ineffectiveness paired with the Chiefs' hunger to bounce back from a sobering defeat at the hands of their new arch-rivals should result in decisive victory for KC. Denver has held their opponents to 17 or fewer points in 8/12 games so far this season, so Chiefs Kingdom shouldn't be concerned if Mahomes doesn't put up 50. I'll predict a 24-16 victory for KC, and I really hope it comes in the afterglow of another New York Jets victory over the conference-leading Buffalo Bills. If the Jets can help out Chiefs Kingdom yet again, KC can regain the pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC.