Mahomes Meets MVP in Monumental Playoff Moment

The ramifications of today's Ravens-Chiefs game will echo through the entire history of this sport. The best player of his generation with the best ever start to an NFL career goes on the road to face off with the soon-to-be-two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and his dominant #1 seed Ravens. I don't want to spend too much time regurgitating other people's takes and research, but much digital ink was spilled this week detailing the unprecedented nature of Patrick Mahomes' playoff track record. It's safe to say that the only man Mahomes is chasing in the history books signed a gazillion-dollar deal to provide commentary for Fox. While Mahomes fights to live up to the moniker of the greatest playoff quarterback ever, Lamar Jackson fights to shake off the narrative that he struggles most in the most important moments.

Baltimore enters this game as 3.5-point favorites at home, which looks fair when you see their season stats and impressive record. The Ravens not only defeated elite teams this season, but dominated them. The Texans, Browns, Lions, 49ers and Dolphins all lost to Baltimore by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore's defense allowed the fewest points per game while tallying up the most sacks and takeaways of any team in football - a feat that was an NFL first. This Ravens team has done everything necessary to be the best team in the league this season. How, then, can anyone predict that the Chiefs will defeat this daunting opponent?

To help answer that question, let's take a closer look at the playoff resumes of Mahomes and his elite contemporaries. After losing to KC last week, Josh Allen has compiled a 10-game postseason Passer Rating of exactly 100. He finished last week's Chiefs game with an 86.1. Lamar has compiled a 75.7 Passer Rating through 5 playoff games. For anyone scared of his impressive performance resulting in a 121.8 Passer Rating against the Texans last week, keep in mind that Josh Allen compiled a 121.9 facing the Steelers in the Wild Card round the week before he faced KC in the playoffs. Allen actually finished with a rating above 100 in three of the four games prior to Buffalo's divisional round face-off with the Chiefs.

Now, let's look at the ridiculous postseason resume for KC's star signal caller. Through 16 playoff games in his career, Patrick Mahomes has a 106.7 Passer Rating. In those 16 games, Mahomes has only finished one - that disastrous Tampa Super Bowl - with a passer rating below Lamar Jackson's average postseason Passer Rating. Jackson has only finished a single playoff game with a rating above Patrick's average playoff passer rating. That game was last week, against a Texans defense that ranked 23rd in passing yards allowed per regular season game. 12 teams also finished the regular season with more sacks than Houston, which is a serious strength for both the Ravens and Chiefs.

I mentioned before that Baltimore leads the league in sacks with 60, but the Chiefs allow the second-fewest QB sacks in the NFL. The Chiefs defense tallied up 57 sacks of their own this season - good for second-most in the league. Baltimore's ability to keep their star QB protected in the pocket hasn't been as consistent as KC's, however. The Ravens allow 2.4 QB sacks per game this season, which is exactly league-average and nearly a full sack per game more than KC's average. KC's success in pressuring opponents' quarterbacks have helped them overcome strong offenses time and time again this season.

Kansas City beat Tua's Miami Dolphins twice and allowed only 21 total points to them.  They beat Josh Allen and a surging Buffalo Bills team in the playoffs. They only allowed 14 points on offense to the Detroit lions in Week 1 without Chris Jones. Other name to fail to score more than 20 on KC includes Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. This may be more difficult than usual since underrated defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi is expected to miss Sunday's game, but Nnadi isn't the most important name on KC's injury report this week.

Offensive linemen avoiding injuries did wonders for Kansas City's ability to protect Mahomes this season. Unfortunately, the name of KC's First Team All-Pro left guard just popped up on that report. Joe Thuney won't be ready for Sunday, but the Chiefs have had success with Nick Allegretti as a trustworthy veteran replacement on the O-line. The collective power of the best coach, best quarterback and best tight end in the league should be enough to help KC compensate for that significant loss. Will it be enough to help the Chiefs move on to the Super Bowl?

In this fan's humble opinion, yes. I trust the greatest playoff quarterback of all time during big playoff moments. He's earned it. Baltimore is the best team KC will face this season, whether they win or lose today, but Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are the best coach-quarterback tandem in the world. Mahomes is also playing with inarguably the best defense that KC's had since Patrick's debut. I'm predicting a classic overtime thriller and a 26-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I truly hope you enjoy this one with folks who love you and love football.

Trap-Game Trevor's Red-Hot Jags Could Concern KC

Do-or-die Kansas City Chiefs football happens today, right here in KC, and the Chiefs are the betting favorite to win another Super Bowl. It doesn't get much better than this for Chiefs Kingdom. However, a prodigy fresh off a legendary comeback playoff win could end all that fun by dinner-time. The Jacksonville Jaguars just gained some serious momentum, and they've proven their toughness time and time again this season. After starting 2-6, the Jags found their footing and won their last six games.

Many of those wins came against legit competition. Since losing 27-17 to KC in Week 10, Jacksonville bounced back with wins over Baltimore, the Cowboys, the Jets in Week 16 and two over the Titans. Trevor Lawrence looked elite for the second half of the season and the second half of last week's victory over the Chargers. Unfortunately for him, the man on pace to be the greatest football player of all time stands between Trevor and a fairy tale championship run.

Mahomes-Lawrence comparisons will naturally steal attention away from the rest of the roster and coaching staff involved today, so let's keep in mind the other Chiefs putting their bodies on the line to directly and literally prop up Mahomes Magic. The Chiefs' offensive line did its job all season long by keeping Mahomes safe. Only the Lions and Bucs allowed fewer sacks in the regular season. Some of the credit clearly goes to Patrick's ability to escape pressure, but the coaching scheme and the offensive line synergized with Mahomes' skill-set to create one of the most potent offenses in this sport's entire history. Andrew Wylie and Trey Smith, along with Pro Bowlers Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. all deserve love from the Kingdom for allowing this offense to reach such legendary heights.

All of that production on offense could still result in disappointment, however, if KC can't defeat the red-hot newcomers to AFC playoff relevancy. Jacksonville's offensive line also deserves credit for keeping their franchise QB safe this season, as they limited Lawrence's times sacked to the fifth-fewest in football. While the Chiefs ranked first in total yards, passing yards and points per game, the Jags ranked 10th in those categories, and as I mentioned before, they ended the regular season far better than they started it. This game has all the drama and flavor necessary to be one of this year's most memorable playoff games.

Either the Jags give KC a good scare and ultimately fall in thrilling fashion, or the Chiefs dominate. I believe those are the only two feasible outcomes to today's game. A Jags upset win is unlikely but possible if KC loses the turnover battle and finds other ways to shoot themselves in the foot. Barring a lopsided turnover margin, the Chiefs will overcome the Jags today. I'm predicting a 34-27 thriller that reminds Chiefs Kingdom just how fun this new era of AFC competition can be for the next decade.