Wild Card Weekend will give us hours of football goodness and determine who will face the defending Super Bowl champs next week. If the Buffalo Bills take care of business in the early game, the Kansas City Chiefs' potential opponents narrow down to Tennessee, Baltimore and Cleveland. A Cleveland Browns victory over Pittsburgh paired with a Buffalo Bills victory would seal Cleveland into a meeting with the reigning champs. Now that the Browns find themselves without their head coach this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 3.5 points. So, if the Vegas favorites win in the AFC this week, our Chiefs will face a Baltimore Ravens team that looks seriously imposing right now.
Baltimore has led the league in regular season scoring margin averages two years straight. Tennessee truly is a legit playoff team capable of beating Baltimore, but the Ravens' recent success makes their advantage undeniable. The Tennessee Titans average over 19 more rushing yards per game than every team in the league except Baltimore, but Baltimore averages over 23 more yards on the ground than the Titans. Lamar Jackson represents a unique threat to any defense. While a dominant Derrick Henry performance could get rid of the Ravens before they become KC's concern, my money's on Lamar this week.
I believe the Ravens and Bills are Kansas City's biggest threats in the AFC. To reach another Super Bowl, KC may need to beat them both. It is important to remember that the Chiefs already beat both by two possessions in the regular season. Regardless of what happens throughout Wild Card Weekend, KC will enter their first game of 2021 as a significant favorite. However, Lamar looks excellent right now, and Patrick seemed to struggle at year's end.
Most football fans would agree that Patrick Mahomes underperformed in December. In those final four games of his regular season, Mahomes failed to post a triple-digit Passer Rating. He completed under 56% of his passes in both of his most recent performances, and he threw four interceptions in his last three games. All this may conjure up some stress in the hearts and minds of Chiefs fans everywhere, but Mahomes' mediocrity over this stretch is overstated.
Look back at the conference in early December and you'll start to see what I mean. The Pittsburgh Steelers approached their Week 13 meeting with Washington with an 11-0 record and pole position for the AFC's #1 seed. Then, Pittsburgh lost to Washington, before traveling to Buffalo to lose to Josh Allen and Associates. Then, the Steelers lost on December 21st when they faced the mighty Cincinnati Bengals. These three consecutive L's gave the Chiefs a comfy lead for the #1 seed and gave the Steelers a face-full of humble pie.
Patrick Mahomes' run of mediocre play coincided with Pittsburgh's losing streak. Perhaps it's not a great sign that the Chiefs showed signs of boredom as they limped their way to the finish line, but I'm willing to blame that boredom for at least some of the struggle.
Sure, Patrick played poorly when the Chiefs had a multi-game lead in the AFC and faced off with the four-win Falcons. When KC was fighting to reclaim the #1 seed back in Week 12, things were a little different. A first-round bye was still up for grabs as the Chiefs faced off with Tompa Bay. Mahomes racked up 462 passing yards and three TD's while completing over 75% of his passes and never throwing a pick. When it mattered, Mahomes was magic. I don't expect that to change any time soon.
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