The ramifications of today's Ravens-Chiefs game will echo through the entire history of this sport. The best player of his generation with the best ever start to an NFL career goes on the road to face off with the soon-to-be-two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and his dominant #1 seed Ravens. I don't want to spend too much time regurgitating other people's takes and research, but much digital ink was spilled this week detailing the unprecedented nature of Patrick Mahomes' playoff track record. It's safe to say that the only man Mahomes is chasing in the history books signed a gazillion-dollar deal to provide commentary for Fox. While Mahomes fights to live up to the moniker of the greatest playoff quarterback ever, Lamar Jackson fights to shake off the narrative that he struggles most in the most important moments.
Baltimore enters this game as 3.5-point favorites at home, which looks fair when you see their season stats and impressive record. The Ravens not only defeated elite teams this season, but dominated them. The Texans, Browns, Lions, 49ers and Dolphins all lost to Baltimore by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore's defense allowed the fewest points per game while tallying up the most sacks and takeaways of any team in football - a feat that was an NFL first. This Ravens team has done everything necessary to be the best team in the league this season. How, then, can anyone predict that the Chiefs will defeat this daunting opponent?
To help answer that question, let's take a closer look at the playoff resumes of Mahomes and his elite contemporaries. After losing to KC last week, Josh Allen has compiled a 10-game postseason Passer Rating of exactly 100. He finished last week's Chiefs game with an 86.1. Lamar has compiled a 75.7 Passer Rating through 5 playoff games. For anyone scared of his impressive performance resulting in a 121.8 Passer Rating against the Texans last week, keep in mind that Josh Allen compiled a 121.9 facing the Steelers in the Wild Card round the week before he faced KC in the playoffs. Allen actually finished with a rating above 100 in three of the four games prior to Buffalo's divisional round face-off with the Chiefs.
Now, let's look at the ridiculous postseason resume for KC's star signal caller. Through 16 playoff games in his career, Patrick Mahomes has a 106.7 Passer Rating. In those 16 games, Mahomes has only finished one - that disastrous Tampa Super Bowl - with a passer rating below Lamar Jackson's average postseason Passer Rating. Jackson has only finished a single playoff game with a rating above Patrick's average playoff passer rating. That game was last week, against a Texans defense that ranked 23rd in passing yards allowed per regular season game. 12 teams also finished the regular season with more sacks than Houston, which is a serious strength for both the Ravens and Chiefs.
I mentioned before that Baltimore leads the league in sacks with 60, but the Chiefs allow the second-fewest QB sacks in the NFL. The Chiefs defense tallied up 57 sacks of their own this season - good for second-most in the league. Baltimore's ability to keep their star QB protected in the pocket hasn't been as consistent as KC's, however. The Ravens allow 2.4 QB sacks per game this season, which is exactly league-average and nearly a full sack per game more than KC's average. KC's success in pressuring opponents' quarterbacks have helped them overcome strong offenses time and time again this season.
Kansas City beat Tua's Miami Dolphins twice and allowed only 21 total points to them. They beat Josh Allen and a surging Buffalo Bills team in the playoffs. They only allowed 14 points on offense to the Detroit lions in Week 1 without Chris Jones. Other name to fail to score more than 20 on KC includes Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. This may be more difficult than usual since underrated defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi is expected to miss Sunday's game, but Nnadi isn't the most important name on KC's injury report this week.
Offensive linemen avoiding injuries did wonders for Kansas City's ability to protect Mahomes this season. Unfortunately, the name of KC's First Team All-Pro left guard just popped up on that report. Joe Thuney won't be ready for Sunday, but the Chiefs have had success with Nick Allegretti as a trustworthy veteran replacement on the O-line. The collective power of the best coach, best quarterback and best tight end in the league should be enough to help KC compensate for that significant loss. Will it be enough to help the Chiefs move on to the Super Bowl?
In this fan's humble opinion, yes. I trust the greatest playoff quarterback of all time during big playoff moments. He's earned it. Baltimore is the best team KC will face this season, whether they win or lose today, but Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are the best coach-quarterback tandem in the world. Mahomes is also playing with inarguably the best defense that KC's had since Patrick's debut. I'm predicting a classic overtime thriller and a 26-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I truly hope you enjoy this one with folks who love you and love football.
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