Can Chargers Damage Chiefs' Championship Chances?

This week's Thursday Night Football will present the most important game of the regular season for the AFC West. All eyes will be on the 9-4 Kansas City Chiefs when they line up against the 8-5 Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium tonight. As fans prepare for this pivotal meeting, as well as all the playoff drama that's soon to come, I'm coming to grips with a bitter truth regarding the quarterbacks in tonight's game.

Chiefs Kingdom knows how great Patrick Mahomes is, but Justin Herbert has been better than our guy this season. Don't kill the messenger - it's a simple mathematical fact. Herbert's been better in every major statistic except for sacks and sack yards lost. When they faced off earlier this season, the young Chargers QB threw for four touchdowns without a turnover and recorded an Adjusted QBR that was 23 points higher than Patrick's. There is no denying that Herbert won the first battle of the season. The Chargers winning the war tonight would do serious damage to the Chiefs' chances at claiming another championship.

This game could come down to the last possession, as indicated by the three-point spread, and the way Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo coaches around a few key omissions to the defense could decide who wins tonight. Both teams could be dealing with major omissions to the roster, but we know for sure that Kansas City will be without Chris Jones, Willie Gay and L'Jarius Sneed. I was happy to give Spagnuolo credit recently for this defense's drastic improvement, but tonight is his biggest test of this regular season. I have faith that Spags can pass that test, especially because I have faith in guys like Nick Bolton and conference defensive player of the week Mike Hughes to make the most of their increased snap count.

It's a good time to be hot, and nobody's hotter than the Chiefs right now. Nobody's reached double-digits on this defense in three games, and nobody's scored more than 17 in the last six. Only five teams in the NFL now hold their opponents to fewer points per game. That's an objectively good defense, and a good defense succeeds even when missing key talent. I believe the Chiefs can meet these somewhat lofty expectations and win this one 31-24.