How Hard Will Fields Fail Facing Dominant D in KC?

     Last week's game did not go according to plan for the Kansas City Chiefs. However, a gritty win for KC has changed the public's perception of the Chiefs DNA this season. Trevor Lawrence, the Price Who Was Promised, one of football's next great quarterbacks, could not score a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs defense last week. Lawrence completed only 53% of his passes and, scientifically speaking, stunk in the red zone. His struggles can be read as proof of the continued emergence of an elite defense in Kansas City.

    After a muffed punt by Richie James gave Lawrence's offense the ball 17 yards away from the end zone, the Chiefs D only allowed a Jags field goal. In the third quarter, KC"s defense once again ruined one of Jacksonville's golden opportunities. The Jags got to KC's one-yard-line with a full set of down to work with. They ended that drive with the third and final Jacksonville field goal of the game.

    At the conclusion of an ugly contest that included nine punts and seven fumbles, KC claimed victory despite scoring only 17 points. This studly Chiefs defense rose to the occasion and accomplished things we haven't seen in Chiefs Kingdom for years. Last season's KC defense never held an opponent to single digits and never had a two-game stretch averaging 15 points or fewer points allowed per game. That happened in the first two games of this season, and there was no Chris Jones in Week 1. With only 48% of the defensive snaps, Jones had a tackle-for-loss, two QB hits and a sack and a half against Jacksonville. That's a Hall of Fame-level talent returning to an already-effective defense, which, shockingly, makes Kansas City's defense the best part of the team at this point in the season.

    The Chiefs have only scored 37 points, but this offense's future still looks bright. Coincidentally, the team visiting Arrowhead today has also scored 37 points so far. Does that mean Chiefs-Bears will be a tense, low-scoring affair like Chiefs-Jags? Probably not! After playing in 64% of snaps for KC's offense last week, Travis Kelce should see more action today as he returns to his typical, insanely high standard of play. That is bad news for a Chicago defense who has struggled this season against offenses with less pedigree.

    Chicago has allowed 28 and 27 points to the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively. Actually, I'm not sure what's the chicken and what's the egg here; did Chicago's defense stink so much that it made Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love look unnaturally good, or are those guys just underrated this season? After all, Love posted a QBR 12.9 points higher against the Falcons in Week 1 than his QBR against Chicago last week. Only he and Kirk Cousins have thrown for six touchdowns through two games, and only Love has done so without throwing any picks. So, maybe Love is on his way to being really good, and maybe the Bears defense could look effective as long as they aren't facing a QB that is really good. Even if this turns out to be the case, the Chiefs have a QB that surpassed "really good" a long time ago.

    Patrick Mahomes has a QBR of 65.1 through two games this season - disappointing by his lofty standards, but still good for 9th in the league. Justin Fields' QBR currently sits at 22.5, which is the league's second-worst. Pair that with Chicago's lack of a defensive coordinator today, and I expect KC to make this the first comfortable viewing experience of the season for Chiefs fans. I'm predicting a 37-17 beatdown as KC gets back to looking like the dynasty they truly are.

Here's Why KC Will Bounce Back in Jacksonville

    Looks like the good times are over, Chiefs Kingdom. Go ahead and jump off the bus now. May as well find another team to cheer for. Our Kansas City Chiefs lost 21-20 to the Detroit Lions last week, and their opponents this Sunday look like a consistent playoff contender for years to come. A dark cloud hung over the Kingdom after that disappointing start, but despite what the haters may say, the sky will not fall.

    Look past the sting of this defeat and recognize that the Chiefs played without two of the team's three best players and still put themselves in position to win numerous times. Then, well-placed Patrick Mahomes passes bounced off receivers' hands, as Chiefs fans everywhere audibly and collectively groaned. Also recognize that the once-lowly Lions emerged as a legitimate winner late last season and showed up ready for their shot at the champs. Fortunately for KC, we should probably see Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back in action for Week 2. Those returns will be crucial against a Jacksonville Jaguars team with immeasurable desire to get revenge on the rivals who knocked them out of last year's playoffs.

    The Jags offense looks studly after the inclusion of Calvin Ridley and rookie Tank Bigsby, but their secondary still looks suspect. Last season, the Jags ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per game. The top three most-used cornerbacks and safeties for Jacksonville last season are slotted into the same spots on the depth chart this season. Jacksonville's secondary limited Colts QB Anthony Richardson in his NFL debut last week, but Patrick is not Anthony Richardson, and this is not his NFL debut.  While Jacksonville held Richardson to a 30.6 QBR and 79 Passer Rating, Mahomes finished last year's AFC Divisional Round faceoff with a 78.5 QBR and a 112.5 RTG. Just don't let Jags edge rusher extraordinaire Josh Allen ruin Kansas City's day; he sacked Richardson three times and hit him twice last week.

    I don't want to rain on the parade of a potential rivalry or be overly reductive here, but without improving the part of their team that was most vulnerable last season, the Jags put a ceiling on the amount of fear they can instill in the hearts of Chiefs fans. Calvin Ridley may look like a top-10 receiver against a Chiefs secondary that is by no means perfect, but I trust an angry, motivated Patrick Mahomes to make a statement at the expense of the Jaguars this Sunday. Trevor Lawrence and his offense could look really impressive in this game and still get outscored by double-digits thanks to the legendary tandem of a pissed-off Mahomes and the best tight end ever, Travis Kelce. I'm predicting a 34-24 Chiefs victory and a lot of back-tracking from football pundits prematurely predicting KC's demise.

Can KC Continue Week 1 Dominance by Defeating Detroit?

Should we be scared about this matchup, Chiefs Kingdom? The Lions are formidable, and the (probable) absences of two of KC's three best players ensure that the Chiefs will not be 100% tonight. It's no secret that the Chiefs dominate Week 1 in the Andy Reid era; they're 9-1 in season openers since Andy came to town, as noted by Arrowhead Pride's John Dixon, and Patrick Mahomes has scored at least 33 in every Week 1 start in his career, according to the prolific Stephen Serda. History alone cannot overcome KC's obstacles tonight, however. Before we look into the lack of Chris Jones and probable lack of Travis Kelce, we should remember just how good the '23 Lions could be.

Detroit's offense finished fifth in points per game and fourth in total yards per game last season. They went 8-2 in their last 10 games. A galvanized, hungry, young roster will be excited to take their shot at the champs tonight. Will their mediocre-at-best defense keep them in this game? That could depend heavily on the effectiveness of Kansas City's revamped offensive line.

We may be understating how different this offensive line will be without Orlando Brown at left tackle. As reported by ESPN's Adam Teicher, the Chiefs signed Donovan Smith to be their starting left tackle after he had one of the worst starting seasons in his entire career. The opposite can be said for KC's new right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who showed significant improvement as a Jacksonville Jaguar last year, just before the Chiefs signed him up for four years and $80 million. The trustworthy core of the Chiefs offensive line and promising new signing at right tackle should keep Patrick safe for years to come, but entering the season with questions about the most important position on that line is undoubtedly not the ideal scenario for KC.

Kelce and Jones' absences are unavoidable and important topics heading into this game. KC's next man up at the tight end position, Noah Gray, won't just slot right into this offense and have 87's level of creativeness and chemistry with the starters. That doesn't mean KC is destined to struggle on offense tonight, though. Jerick McKinnon, Skyy Moore and others can be expected to step up and increase their productivity without Kelce on the field. Filling the Chris Jones-sized void on the other side of the ball seems like the tougher task tonight.

#95 applied a ridiculous amount of pressure on opponents' offenses last season, finishing with the league's fourth-most sacks (15.5) and by far the most sacks by any defensive lineman in football. The only other Chief on the roster with more than five sacks last season is George Karlaftis, who had six. Defensive end Charles Omenihu is serving his suspension and first-round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah isn't immediately ready for a starting role. That means pressuring the quarterback won't be simple for KC tonight against an offense that could soon prove itself as one of the best in the league.

The ceiling for this Lions offense looks like it could be one of footballs' highest. Jahmyr Gibb's promise as a speedy, pass-catching RB is undeniable, and Amon-Ra St. Brown's future looks equally bright. Last year's Lions' offense finished with the league's fifth-most points per game and fourth-most total yards per game. Gibbs can hopefully be contained by Chiefs linebackers paying extra attention to him this evening. Despite averaging more than six catches per game last year, St. Brown dropped 40 of 146 targets. Extra physicality from KC's secondary could disrupt St. Brown enough to limit his effectiveness today. Seeing a little violence (within the rules of the game) from the likes of Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid would bode well for Kansas City's near future.

Turnovers are a boring and simple topic, but winning the turnover battle can be crucial in potentially close games such as this one. Detroit finished last year with the NFL's fewest giveaways and fourth-best turnover differential. KC was league-average or worse in those categories last season, so it seems likely that the Chiefs will need to overcome not only the aforementioned absences but also a negative turnover differential tonight.

All the elements of this game that favor Detroit still don't add up to me predicting a Chiefs defeat. Reid and Mahomes are just too good together in Week 1 for me to do that. Also, Detroit's defense is just as horrendous as their offense is impressive; they allowed the most total yards per game and the fifth-most points per game in the league last season. I predict that the Lions scare Chiefs Kingdom with some flashy offense tonight but ultimately fall to the defending Super Bowl champs in a 31-27 thriller. Whatever happens tonight will set the tone for upcoming matchups with other promising teams like Jacksonville, the Jets and the Vikings, who all face off with the Chiefs before the middle of October.

Will Mahomes Turn Chiefs Into Undeniable Dynasty?

The impact of this Super Bowl will make waves through all of sports history. Victory for the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday would make it impossible to deny the franchise's identity as a true dynasty. That feeling of greatness affects every citizen of Chiefs Kingdom every day, but the consequences of this particular Big Game will mean something almost inexplicable to Patrick Mahomes. For Mahomes, this Sunday's game represents a certain threshold of greatness that only a handful of athletes in sports history have ever crossed. Winning this much this early in his career would push Mahomes past the realm of debates involving names like Allen and Burrow and bring him into the orbit of talks involving names like Montana and Brady. A win this Sunday means people will be comparing Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa less often than they compare Mahomes to Michael Jordan.

A win today keeps Mahomes in the conversation of the best athletes ever, with names like Brady, Jordan, LeBron, Serena, Gretzky, Babe Ruth, Muhammad Ali - names that bring to mind unprecedented greatness. The phrase "greatest athlete ever" has such weight that it echoes back through thousands of years of human history. Human beings have been engaging in some sort of organized, athletic competition that can be defined as a team sport for over three millennia, and winning a football game today could be part of Patrick Mahomes' journey to becoming the best to participate in that activity over that entire period of time. 

That's a lot of superlative-laden, big-picture stuff I'm talking about. The thing is, it's all true, because Patrick is just that good. Whoever's writing their own blog about the Vikings sure as hell doesn't talk like this about Kirk Cousins, so I feel unbelievably lucky just to experience this. There's always two sides to the Super Bowl story, however, and the Eagles' resume suggests that they're capable of breaking countless hearts in Chiefs Kingdom today.

Philly started the year 8-0 and plowed through their first two playoff opponents, both of which lost by over three touchdowns and only scored seven points. The Eagles lost one game this season in which Hurts played and wasn't injured. Philly had the most sacks in the regular season by a wide margin, but at least the Chiefs allowed the third-fewest sacks in the NFL. Haason Reddick led the league in sacks with 19.5 this season, but the entire Eagles defense knows how to hunt the quarterback. No other team had more than one guy ranked 12th or better in sacks this season. Philly had four. That's four different Eagles from three different positions that had 12 or more sacks.

To put that in perspective, the Chiefs' runner-up for sacks is Frank Clark. His seven sacks puts him in an eight-way tie for 40th place. Philadelphia's ability to pressure the QB without sending a blitz resulted in them allowing the league's lowest passing yards per game in the regular season and postseason.

That studly Philly defense paired with one of football's best offenses may make the Eagles the most complete team in the NFL. While KC's offense is the best in football, Philly's isn't far behind. KC and Philadelphia ranked 1st and 3rd respectively in both total yards and total points per game in the regular season. The offensive lines are important, underrated factors for both the teams that reached this year's Super Bowl. The centers in particular deserve credit, as Creed Humphrey and Jason Kelce are rated the #1 and #2 centers in the league by Pro Football Focus.

Mahomes deserves his exorbitant share of attention in moments like this, but several Chiefs that garner far less acclaim will decide who finishes this season as a champion. The aforementioned young center and all his partners on KC's offensive line will have their work cut out for them trying to limit the penetration of Philly's impressive defensive front-line. The improvement to KC's rushing defense also seems understated. The growing greatness of Chris Jones and the improvements at middle linebacker thanks to Willie Gay and Nick Bolton resulted in KC ranking eighth in rushing yards allowed per game in the regular season. Last season, KC ranked 21st in this statistic. The Chiefs also improved their rushing yards allowed per attempt from 30th last season to 19th this season.

I truly believe that in a game that looks this close on paper, the result will still be decided by the superior quarterback-head coach duo. Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts seem to have a bright future ahead together, but their two strong playoff performances pale in comparison to the monumental list of achievements credited to the legendary duo of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. I'm predicting that the Chiefs win today, 27-24, and the first ever Kansas City sports dynasty is born. Enjoy it with people you love as much as you can.

Can KC Claim Conference Crown by Beating Burrow's Boasting Bengals?

Arrowhead Stadium will soon serve as host for a major moment in NFL history, so I believe now's a proper time to remember how the Chiefs arrived at this exciting moment. The best moments of history are often made possible by its worst moments, and the history of Kansas City Chiefs football is no different. KC made the best drafting decision in franchise history when they picked Patrick Mahomes in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but this was a reversal of the last three and a half decades of Chiefs strategy.

The choice to bring in Mahomes came after Kansas City declined the opportunity to draft a quarterback in the first round for 34 consecutive seasons since they went with a guy named Todd Blackledge. This QB that the Chiefs acquired during the Reagan Era never led his own team in passing yards over a single season and ended his career with a completion percentage below 50%. Blackledge would never earn a long-term starting role for any franchise, and the Chiefs would go on to finish in last place in their division in four of the six seasons following their choice to choose a QB in the draft's first round. The Chiefs failed to survive the divisional round of the playoffs in the 23 seasons since winning Super Bowl IV, until a San Francisco 49ers cast-off named Joe Montana led KC to a losing effort in the AFC Championship in 1992.

The trend of sticking with quarterbacks who got their start with other franchises continued in KC for another two and a half decades, with the likes of Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, Trent Green, Matt Cassel and all the way up to key Mahomes mentor Alex Smith. Since Smith passed the torch to Mahomes, Kansas City has been in the hunt for a Super Bowl victory every season. It only took the franchise nearly half a century to reverse its quarterback-drafting strategy and become the incumbent dynasty of pro football. It just so happens that the QB standing in the way of more glory for KC and Mahomes is practically the only man who has successfully stopped KC every chance he's had.

Despite having serious injury issues to their offensive line last week, Joe Burrow overcame a Bills defense that many NFL experts trusted as being Super Bowl-worthy. Unfortunately for fans in KC, Joe plays the Chiefs better than he plays any other team in football. Burrow has only played one regular season game against the Atlanta Falcons, and in it he threw for 481 yards, three touchdowns and never turned the ball over while completing over 80% of his passes. Burrow has played two regular season games agains the Chiefs and somehow compiled a higher Passer Rating in those two games combined than he did in his dominating performance against the Falcons.

In the playoffs, Burrow seems less dominant against KC, with only 240 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pick in last year's AFC Championship. It wasn't Ja'Marr Chase killing KC in last year's playoff meeting, either; he only caught six out of nine passes sent his way for 54 receiving yards. It was Tee Higgins who claimed the lion's share of receiving yards that day, with 103. It was Joe's patience and ability to convert on third downs that truly killed Kansas City. 

While Joe Burrow chases Patrick Mahomes for the claim to be the league's greatest QB, Mahomes chases the all-time greats already in the history books. Otto Graham, who played in six total seasons for the Cleveland Browns from 1950-1955, is the only player in AFL-NFL history to record a higher QB winning percentage than Mahomes through at least 17 games. While Mahomes will soon claim his second league MVP award, he may also be weeks away from winning his second Super Bowl. You may already know, but it's worth repeating: the Chiefs are hosting their fifth straight AFC Championship, which is a league record. Mahomes has helped Travis Kelce become inarguably the best to ever play his position, and Mahomes has cemented Andy Reid's position as one of the five or ten greatest pro football coaches of all time. Winning this game keeps Mahomes on pace to legitimately stake his claim one day as the greatest football player ever.

All this conversation about superlatives and history books means nothing when it comes to the little things that actually decide who will achieve victory this Sunday. As much as I like waxing poetic about #15's greatness, other factors beyond his control will drastically impact who goes to the Super Bowl and who starts planning their vacation a few weeks earlier than they had hoped. A key factor to keep in mind this Sunday is Cincy's vulnerability on the offensive line due to the absences of Bengals left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa.

Perhaps Buffalo failed to expose Cincy's injured offensive line, and perhaps KC learned from that mistake after seeing last week's Bills-Bengals game. KC's defense ranks 7th league-wide in opponent quarterbacks' percentage of plays hurried, 9th in quarterback knockdown percentage and 5th in pressure percentage. The Packers and Jaguars are the only other teams in football that can claim to be 9th-best or better in all those categories. Buffalo ranges between 13th and 15th in all those categories, for the record, so maybe KC's reliance on guys like Chris Jones and Frank Clark could be beneficial to Chiefs Kingdom this Sunday.  

Last year's AFC Championship game truly came down to the Chiefs' inability to score to start the second half. With a 21-10 advantage, Kansas City punted in four out of five of their next drives to start the third quarter. The other drive in there was an interception by Mahomes. Before the end of the of the third quarter, Cincy had 24 points on the board. 

One field goal in the second half simply is not enough scoring to beat a legit team like the Bengals. Only once since then has KC failed to score seven or more in any half of football, and that came in their embarrassing Week 3 loss to the Colts. If KC can simply avoid going ice-cold on offense, which is something they almost never do, they should have the advantage this time.

Despite the rivalry's recent history and concern about Mahomes' ankle, I have to predict a win for the Chiefs. I have no clue how to calculate the odds to beat a team as uniquely great as the Chiefs four times straight, but let's just say it's a uniquely difficult task to achieve. Burrow is due to flinch and make a mistake that gives the Chiefs an advantage, and Mahomes is ready to go get revenge. I'm predicting a 27-24 KC victory and another chance at Super Bowl glory for Chiefs Kingdom.

Trap-Game Trevor's Red-Hot Jags Could Concern KC

Do-or-die Kansas City Chiefs football happens today, right here in KC, and the Chiefs are the betting favorite to win another Super Bowl. It doesn't get much better than this for Chiefs Kingdom. However, a prodigy fresh off a legendary comeback playoff win could end all that fun by dinner-time. The Jacksonville Jaguars just gained some serious momentum, and they've proven their toughness time and time again this season. After starting 2-6, the Jags found their footing and won their last six games.

Many of those wins came against legit competition. Since losing 27-17 to KC in Week 10, Jacksonville bounced back with wins over Baltimore, the Cowboys, the Jets in Week 16 and two over the Titans. Trevor Lawrence looked elite for the second half of the season and the second half of last week's victory over the Chargers. Unfortunately for him, the man on pace to be the greatest football player of all time stands between Trevor and a fairy tale championship run.

Mahomes-Lawrence comparisons will naturally steal attention away from the rest of the roster and coaching staff involved today, so let's keep in mind the other Chiefs putting their bodies on the line to directly and literally prop up Mahomes Magic. The Chiefs' offensive line did its job all season long by keeping Mahomes safe. Only the Lions and Bucs allowed fewer sacks in the regular season. Some of the credit clearly goes to Patrick's ability to escape pressure, but the coaching scheme and the offensive line synergized with Mahomes' skill-set to create one of the most potent offenses in this sport's entire history. Andrew Wylie and Trey Smith, along with Pro Bowlers Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Orlando Brown Jr. all deserve love from the Kingdom for allowing this offense to reach such legendary heights.

All of that production on offense could still result in disappointment, however, if KC can't defeat the red-hot newcomers to AFC playoff relevancy. Jacksonville's offensive line also deserves credit for keeping their franchise QB safe this season, as they limited Lawrence's times sacked to the fifth-fewest in football. While the Chiefs ranked first in total yards, passing yards and points per game, the Jags ranked 10th in those categories, and as I mentioned before, they ended the regular season far better than they started it. This game has all the drama and flavor necessary to be one of this year's most memorable playoff games.

Either the Jags give KC a good scare and ultimately fall in thrilling fashion, or the Chiefs dominate. I believe those are the only two feasible outcomes to today's game. A Jags upset win is unlikely but possible if KC loses the turnover battle and finds other ways to shoot themselves in the foot. Barring a lopsided turnover margin, the Chiefs will overcome the Jags today. I'm predicting a 34-27 thriller that reminds Chiefs Kingdom just how fun this new era of AFC competition can be for the next decade.

Stidham, Vegas Seek Vengeance As Chiefs Seek Bye Week

Only the downtrodden Las Vegas Raiders stand between the Kansas City Chiefs and the AFC's #1 seed. The Raiders will once again start career-backup Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, and their defense will omit Chandler Jones and Denzel Perryman. These changes should help make this a stress-free Saturday in Chiefs Kingdom, but I'm not so sure. Raiders fans desperately desire a rivalry here, but no true rivalry exists when the competition is completely lop-sided, and Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 in his career against the Raiders. Despite a depleted roster, the Raiders probably see this strange Saturday game as the Super Bowl for spoilers.

I still want to believe that today's game will be an easy test for the Chiefs, but KC played down to inferior teams all season long, and they only snuck past Vegas by a point in their previous meeting. Also, Stidham looked legit last week when Vegas scored 34 and took San Fran to overtime. His 77.4 QBR in that game was only matched by Mahomes once in KC's last four games. However, Mahomes' season average for QBR sits at 77.8, which is less a knock on Stidham and more evidence that KC's golden boy should earn his second MVP award this season.

I would love to predict a blow-out victory for KC, but they converted on only 22.22% of their third downs last week - the lowest percentage in the NFL in Week 17. The Chiefs aren't facing Denver's beefy defense this week, though, and the Raiders defense ranks among the NFL's bottom eight in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. Maybe Stidham's more studly than I anticipated, but he is most certainly not on the level of soon-to-be-MVP Patrick Mahomes. 

The Chiefs give me no peace of mind when facing subpar opponents, thanks to their aforementioned struggles against them all season long, but they also earned the benefit of the doubt by overcoming those struggles almost every time. Also, Patrick Mahomes would give this team the benefit of the doubt even if the rest of the roster didn't deserve it. I'm predicting a frustrating 37-31 victory for the reigning division champs. The Chiefs, specifically the leaders on this Chiefs roster, rarely disappoint in a game of this magnitude, especially when facing such ineffectual opposition.