Mayfield Might Make Monday More Stressful Than KC Expected

Tonight's Monday Night Football meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might wind up way closer than most experts anticipated. Yet another outcome for the Chiefs will be seriously influenced by injury. Sorry if that sounds like a bummer, and I know it's a bit of a theme this year, but that's just how it goes in full-contact sports. The Bucs looked like a sneaky-good pick to end the Chiefs' winning streak after Tampa started off 4-2, but they lost their two best wide receivers to injuries in their Week 6 victory over the Saints.

Mike Evans is out for several more weeks, and Chris Godwin's season is over. Nobody else on the roster has averaged over 43 receiving yards per game while playing in more than one game this year. The Bucs lost their last two games without Godwin and Evans healthy, but it wasn't a lack of scoring holding them back. The Bucs scored 31 on Baltimore and still lost by 10. Last week, they put up 26 on the Falcons, but they allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for four touchdowns.

Despite Baker Mayfield's remarkable resurgence with Tampa, they enter this matchup with a 4-4 record and a nine-point Vegas handicap. That isn't just because Godwin and Evans have been gone for two weeks. Tampa ranks in the bottom five in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. They've scored 26 or more and still lost in three of their last four games. With all the Chiefs' injuries and subsequent struggles on offense in mind, this could be Kansas City's perfect opportunity to find their rhythm.

I expect Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the offense to take advantage of Tampa's flaws tonight. I'm predicting a Chiefs victory, but a nine-point spread seems like a lot. Baker really does deserve credit for the work he's putting in as a Buc this season and last. He has compiled the NFL's seventh-best Passer Rating and second-highest average for passing yards per game. That consistency on offense could keep this one close. I'm picking the Chiefs to surpass 30 points for the first time since November of last season and win this game 31-24.

How Hard Will Fields Fail Facing Dominant D in KC?

     Last week's game did not go according to plan for the Kansas City Chiefs. However, a gritty win for KC has changed the public's perception of the Chiefs DNA this season. Trevor Lawrence, the Price Who Was Promised, one of football's next great quarterbacks, could not score a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs defense last week. Lawrence completed only 53% of his passes and, scientifically speaking, stunk in the red zone. His struggles can be read as proof of the continued emergence of an elite defense in Kansas City.

    After a muffed punt by Richie James gave Lawrence's offense the ball 17 yards away from the end zone, the Chiefs D only allowed a Jags field goal. In the third quarter, KC"s defense once again ruined one of Jacksonville's golden opportunities. The Jags got to KC's one-yard-line with a full set of down to work with. They ended that drive with the third and final Jacksonville field goal of the game.

    At the conclusion of an ugly contest that included nine punts and seven fumbles, KC claimed victory despite scoring only 17 points. This studly Chiefs defense rose to the occasion and accomplished things we haven't seen in Chiefs Kingdom for years. Last season's KC defense never held an opponent to single digits and never had a two-game stretch averaging 15 points or fewer points allowed per game. That happened in the first two games of this season, and there was no Chris Jones in Week 1. With only 48% of the defensive snaps, Jones had a tackle-for-loss, two QB hits and a sack and a half against Jacksonville. That's a Hall of Fame-level talent returning to an already-effective defense, which, shockingly, makes Kansas City's defense the best part of the team at this point in the season.

    The Chiefs have only scored 37 points, but this offense's future still looks bright. Coincidentally, the team visiting Arrowhead today has also scored 37 points so far. Does that mean Chiefs-Bears will be a tense, low-scoring affair like Chiefs-Jags? Probably not! After playing in 64% of snaps for KC's offense last week, Travis Kelce should see more action today as he returns to his typical, insanely high standard of play. That is bad news for a Chicago defense who has struggled this season against offenses with less pedigree.

    Chicago has allowed 28 and 27 points to the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively. Actually, I'm not sure what's the chicken and what's the egg here; did Chicago's defense stink so much that it made Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love look unnaturally good, or are those guys just underrated this season? After all, Love posted a QBR 12.9 points higher against the Falcons in Week 1 than his QBR against Chicago last week. Only he and Kirk Cousins have thrown for six touchdowns through two games, and only Love has done so without throwing any picks. So, maybe Love is on his way to being really good, and maybe the Bears defense could look effective as long as they aren't facing a QB that is really good. Even if this turns out to be the case, the Chiefs have a QB that surpassed "really good" a long time ago.

    Patrick Mahomes has a QBR of 65.1 through two games this season - disappointing by his lofty standards, but still good for 9th in the league. Justin Fields' QBR currently sits at 22.5, which is the league's second-worst. Pair that with Chicago's lack of a defensive coordinator today, and I expect KC to make this the first comfortable viewing experience of the season for Chiefs fans. I'm predicting a 37-17 beatdown as KC gets back to looking like the dynasty they truly are.

Can KC Overcome Success-Craving Cleveland?

Our defending Super Bowl champions take the field in mere moments. The Kansas City Chiefs face the Cleveland Browns today, and the winners punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game next weekend. While the Chiefs overcame a laundry list of legit competition to earn the #1 seed, the Browns' obstacles looked less impressive.

Cleveland's schedule was a joke. The 11-5 Browns won only three games against winning football teams in the regular season. Their schedule included victories over each team from the NFC East, a win over the Texans, two wins from the Bengals and one from the one-win Jaguars. The Browns also lost to the New York Jets in Week 16. If Cleveland didn't face so many cupcake opponents this season, they may not have made it this far.

The Chiefs beat the Ravens, Bills, Bucs and Saints in the regular season, which further galvanized the reigning champions. The Browns needed an easy schedule to sneak their way into the playoffs, just like they needed a bad game from the Steelers to sneak into the second round.

It's true that Patrick Mahomes and his offense are guilty of getting off to slow starts this season. However, none of KC's struggles compare to the awful way Pittsburgh started the game last week. The Steelers' first six possessions resulted in three interceptions, two punts and a botched long-snap that turned into a Browns touchdown. Kansas City will not do that today. 

Regardless of who they beat to reach this point, Cleveland matches up well against KC in numerous ways. Baker Mayfield deserves credit for making plays in key moments throughout the season, and he's bringing with him the world's best rushing duo. All throughout the regular season, the Browns' elite run game found success against defenses better-equipped at stopping the run than Kansas City's.

Numbers also indicate that the Browns will have the advantage in the red zone, an area in which KC has been surprisingly ineffective on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs allow the highest percentage of touchdowns scored by opponents in the red zone, and Cleveland ranks third league-wide in red zone touchdown scoring efficiency. Part of the Browns' success has to do with protecting their young quarterback, but at least KC also excels in protecting Patrick. Sacks-per-game statistics show that both defenses are below-average at sacking the QB, and both offensive lines prevent sacks at an elite level.

I expect the Browns to utilize an efficient offense that burns clock and limits the opportunities for Mahomes to scorch that flawed Cleveland secondary. The grand sum of all the nice things listed above about the Browns should be enough to let Cleveland avoid embarrassment this afternoon, but it won't be enough to beat the defending champs. I predict a 34-24 victory for our Chiefs and a mild headache for me after lots of joyful shouting.