Tomorrow's game will be a one-of-a-kind battle against two teams with extremely different histories. The New England Patriots just reached their eighth consecutive AFC Conference Championship game. Our Kansas City Chiefs haven't reached a conference championship game in a quarter-century, and they haven't won one in a half-century. Those were the only other times in team history KC made it this far. New England won their division in each of their last 15 seasons with a healthy Tom Brady. The Chiefs, on the other hand, just won their first divisional round home game in team history. In the 17 seasons when the Pats have The Hoodie and a healthy Brady, they've reached the Super Bowl eight times. That's an almost-LeBron-like level of excellence, and it's completely unmatched in professional football.
However, Chiefs Kingdom has numerous reasons to believe our squad is still Super Bowl-bound. That same Tom Brady of legend looks very human in road games this year. The 11-5 Pats took every L on their schedule on the road, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Detroit Lions. None of those teams reached the playoffs this year, and none of them benefit from the record-breaking, raucous home crowd we provide. The vastly different histories of these franchises won't mean much to members of the Kingdom at Arrowhead this Sunday. All that really matters is the effectiveness of the two teams on the field. Without taking away from the historical importance of this game, let's momentarily suspend all pretense and talk numbers.
Patrick Mahomes completely changes the way I analyze this game. The incredible offense he leads makes me focus less on how the Chiefs can limit the great Tom Brady and more on how the Pats defense can limit Patrick. The only teams that held KC to below 30 points were the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, and the three other defenses have top-11 season sack totals. How do the rushing attacks from KC and New England compare to the rest of the league?
Only Aaron Donald and J.J Watt have more sacks than emerging Chiefs stud Chris Jones this year. Dee Ford's 13 sacks ranks 7th league-wide. 13 sacks is also the season sacks total for the Oakland Raiders. The whole team. New England tied the New York Giants for the second-lowest sacks total in the league with 30.
So, it seemingly takes a strong pass-rushing attack to limit KC's offense, and the Pats don't have that. But, only two of the four teams that beat the Chiefs in the regular season held them under 40 points. The teams that won against KC all had a prolific passer, a prolific coach, or both. The club that unarguably has both is the same one now standing between Chiefs Kingdom and a Super Bowl.
I said last week that Reid/Mahomes > Reich/Luck, but Bill Belichick/Brady > every other coach/quarterback combo ever. The amazing home crowd at Arrowhead, the uncanny talent on the offensive side of the ball and a duo of talented pass-rushers will give the Chiefs a very realistic shot to win tomorrow. Sadly, I cannot predict that such a young QB can overcome the greatest coach/quarterback tandem in history. I predict that the dastardly Pats sneak away with a 34-33 victory. It almost hurts me to imagine the delirious joy I'll feel if Mahomes proves me wrong.
This is the most important moment in Chiefs history in at least 25 years. Are you ready, Kingdom?
Doug LaCerte writes about the Chiefs and the Royals, and he occasionally does stuff on Twitter @DLaC67.
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