All the experts think the Chiefs are gonna lose tonight. You already know that. You've probably already heard that stat about how Tom Brady is 579-1 or whatever when facing AFC opponents in Week 1 home games (50-1 since 2007, actually). You've probably also heard that Andy Reid is nigh-unstoppable when given extra time to plan for his next opponent. KC looks good, but the defending champs look better than they did last season. All this adds up to something fun but predictable - a close game and a victory for New England - unless the Chiefs' defense can force enough turnovers to break the game.
How can the Chiefs blow minds tonight by beating the defending champs in their own backyard? If they can, which they probably can't, it will come down to turnovers. The sad truth for fans in the Kingdom comes when you look at last year's turnover rates; sure, our Chiefs finished tied for first place in turnover differential, but New England finished third. Tom Brady knows he shouldn't throw in Marcus Peters' direction when under duress. He knows Justin Houston is coming for him. It's just illogical to bet against the best quarterback ever, especially when you don't have a fully healthy secondary.
If KC doesn't break the game with an obscene turnover rate, or maybe some special teams chaos, New England should win by 3-13 points. Right now is a horrible time to place your #2 cornerback on the IR. Bob Sutton says it will be a team effort to fill Steven Nelson's shoes tonight, which means there isn't a perfect plan in place, which means Brady will have more ways to pick apart KC's defense. That's, uhh, not good new for the Kingdom.
Despite the reigning champions' clear advantage here, I'm mostly dismissing an overhyped element in this game. I won't put too much into the narrative of the Patriots getting extra gametime mojo tonight just because they're donning their Super Bowl rings in front of apparent archnemesis Roger Goodell. It's a tired story by this point, and whoever's returning from last year's Super Bowl-winning roster had an offseason to reflect and celebrate. If anything, this gives KC a good reason to embrace that eternal sports cliche of having that chip on their shoulders, or collective shoulder, I guess? Whatever. It's an awful cliche. Point is, the Chiefs get to be underdogs, while still being one of the 2-5 best teams in the AFC.
The Star's Sam Mellinger did well to point out that this game is a kind of blessing, in that if KC wins, holy crap, and if KC loses, nobody's devastated or shocked. The Chiefs' playoff hopes remain very strong no matter what happens tonight. If they actually pull off the improbable and beat the champs - the modern era Yankees of the NFL - on their own turf, mere moments after they receive their rings, then this Kansas City Chiefs team will reach a level of confidence never before seen this century.
That sets the stage for the Chiefs and the Kingdom, alike to embrace the "nothing to lose" mindset for tonight's game. I predict a 27-20 loss, but if this thing stays close for more than two quarters, we'll still remember it for a long time. Consider tonight's game fuel for the rest of the season, regardless of the outcome.
Doug will try hard not to neglect his Twitter account @DLaC67, but he'll definitely keep neglecting his Facebook page.
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