Can KC and Mahomes Make History at Arrowhead?

I already know I'll be a mess of emotions today, whether or not our Kansas City Chiefs can exorcise some demons and win their first divisional round home playoff game in franchise history. The Indianapolis Colts offer Chiefs Kingdom plenty to be afraid of while also leaving fans confident about certain elements of this KC squad. Before I get emotional, I'll take a look at what to fear and what to feel good about today.

A combination of Andrew Luck, a revamped offensive line and a recently stout defense are what got the Colts to this point. These pieces allowed Indy to win nine of their last 10 regular season games and pound the Texans in Houston. Andrew Luck started in all 16 regular season games this year behind a drastically improved O-line and finished with career highs in season Quarterback Rating and QBR. Luck's effectiveness kept Indy in the playoff hunt through the second half of the season. The only time either quarterback threw more interceptions than touchdowns this year is when Patrick Mahomes had two picks and no TD's against Jacksonville.

Luck didn't experience this level of success behind his offensive line from last year, though. The Colts upgraded here big-time in the last draft by picking second team All-Pro Quenton Nelson in the first round and Braden Smith in the third. Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders agree that the Colts have a top-five O-line, while KC's is just middle-of-the-pack.  Indy's pass protection ranks second league-wide, and they allowed the fewest sacks of any team in football.

Despite all the success on Luck's side of the ball, Indy also wouldn't have reached this tournament without impressive contributions from their defense. This squad held four teams below 10 points in the regular season, including a shutout against a hot Dallas Cowboys squad in Week 15. Limiting KC's star tight end is always important for the Chiefs' opponents, and perhaps nobody in the league has more potential to successfully defend Travis Kelce than emerging star Darius Leonard. This studly rookie linebacker is a huge part of why pundits nationwide started saying that Indy has one of the league's best defenses.

However, that trendy take isn't perfect. In their last ten regular season games, the Colts picked up nine wins to barely grab the last spot in the playoffs. Seven of these wins came against the Bills, Raiders, Jags, Titans, Dolphins and Giants. Simply put, those teams do not have good quarterbacks. Your quarterback, the undisputed King of Chiefs Kingdom, just finished his first full regular season as an NFL QB, and he gave us one of the three greatest seasons in NFL QB history.

This same Colts defense that many expert analysts are so high on gave up 27 points to the Giants, 28 to the Raiders, 38 to the New England Patriots, 34 to Cincy and 42 to the mighty New York Jets. The Colts have been good lately, sure, but they've often been good against QB's that are average or worse.

That's far from the only reason to feel good about your Chiefs today. Limiting Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill's effectiveness is as difficult as it is important. Kelce has at least five catches in every game since Week 1. He ranks second this season in total catches, total yards and yards per game. Hill has the fourth-most receiving yards and fifth-highest yards per carry average among anyone in the league and the highest on all remaining playoff squads.

Indy does a great job protecting their QB in passing situations, but both teams excel in this area. KC's front line allowed the fifth-best protection and the fifth-fewest sacks allowed during the regular season. The Chiefs should also have the edge regarding turnovers. Kansas City forced more fumbles than all-but three NFL teams, and only three NFL teams fumbled the ball fewer times. KC's overall give-take differential of +9 is the sixth-best in football, while Indy ranks 13th.

KC led the league in regular season yards per game, despite ranking just 16th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Indy's running game seemed legit against the Texans last week, but over the year, they average only 107.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 20th league-wide. Luck's success running this apparently high-flying offense is also deceptive. Luck's regular season performance seemed impressive, but he's usually just "dinkin' and dunkin'".

The Colts completed only 41 plays yielding 20 or more yards this season, which is the fourth-lowest total in football. Kansas City did this 65 times to lead the league. Mahomes' 8.8 yards per passing attempt is second only to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Luck's 7.2 ranks him 23rd. This year's Chiefs defense struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing attack, but at least the 70-yard heart-breaker pass plays are less likely today.

The coach and the quarterback matter even more than usual in playoff match-ups. Andy Reid is better than Frank Reich. Mahomes, right now, is better than Andrew Luck and perhaps every other player in football. A combination of nasty weather and the NFL's greatest home crowd guarantees that the atmosphere at Arrowhead will be intense. Despite KC's shortcomings, I cannot predict the #6 seed to handle this situation well. I think the Chiefs make history today and beat the Colts 33-31 in a classic.

The "do or die" era of Patrick Mahomes' career begins today, Chiefs Kingdom. For devoted fans, playoff games inflict a certain kind of enjoyable illness. My stomach churns. My heart races like I'm already late for something very important. I did not sleep well last night. I never do before moments like this. This unusual and seemingly unwarranted level of stress is wonderful. It is a unique moment in which something in our heads knows that the stress we're feeling doesn't come from life-threatening responsibility but instead from passion - the passion we have for a team that will soon either etch their names in franchise history with a victory or end their season in defeat. Please remember to enjoy that feeling today, Kingdom, regardless of the outcome.

Doug LaCerte writes about Chiefs stuff, Royals stuff and enjoys anti-Raiders memes on Twitter @DLaC67.

Even With Flaws, KC's Defense Is Elite

Your Kansas City Chiefs just earned their spot in the driver’s seat to a first-round bye in the playoffs, but which aspect of this team will be remembered for getting them there? After seeing your Chiefs bailed out time after time by a turnover or a crucial 3^rd-down stop, is it really a question? The stats could dissuade you at first glance, but the defense in Chiefs Kingdom is elite.

Don’t let the league’s 27^th-ranked yards allowed per game fool you; only seven teams allow fewer points per game than Kansas City does, and six of those teams are playoff-bound. Despite not forcing any turnovers last Thursday against the Oakland Raiders, KC is still tied for the most takeaways in the NFL this season. KC's efforts against some of the league's best QBs prove that the defense stays stout when it's needed most.

Drew Brees currently commands the highest-ranked offense in football, but the Chiefs held the Saints to 6.5 points less than their current average. KC held Andrew Luck and Indianapolis to 11.2 yards below their current average. The Chiefs also held Matt Ryan and his outstanding Falcons offense to 12 points in the second half to sneak away with an overtime win in Atlanta. KC's defense limited Cam Newton, the reigning offensive MVP, and they humbled the former MVP front-runner Derek Carr by handing him an embarrassing loss at a crucial moment in the season. Twice.

Our Chiefs already played the teams who rank first, second, third and fourth in average points per game. The New England Patriots are #5. How's that for foreshadowing?

We can’t look too far ahead, however, as the Tennessee Titans could threaten our chance for playoff football at Arrowhead Stadium this year. It will continue to be painfully cold in KC tomorrow, and the Chiefs’ inability to stop the run makes Tennessee an opponent that should be taken seriously.

The Titans rank 3^rd league-wide in rushing yards per game, while only five NFL teams allow more rushing yards per game than Kansas City. Only one of the teams worse at stopping the run than KC – the Denver Broncos – has probable odds to reach the playoffs. Tennessee is the best running offense the Chiefs will face this regular season, making Andy Reid and Company’s extra days of game-planning even more beneficial.

The mega-cliché of the “bend-don’t-break” defense will be tested on icy Arrowhead turf tomorrow, but our 2016 Chiefs consistently pass tough tests. It’s gonna be ugly, again, but I believe KC has the big-play potential – even in nasty conditions – to sneak away with another victory. I predict yet another gritty, hard-fought victory for KC. The good guys will win, 20-16, and we’ll all feel a little bit warmer here in Chiefs Kingdom. I hope.

Doug LaCerte occasionally remembers he has a Twitter @DLaC67, and he still has Facebook.

Luck Be a Lady Today, I Hope

A week after Jamaal Charles ran rampant on the Raiders, KC comes home for their last regular season game at Arrowhead. In what is probably a playoff matchup preview, the Chiefs welcome Andrew Luck and Indy to the snowy wasteland of Kansas City. Both teams say they won't save anything for the playoffs, and both teams are justified in their lies. Nonetheless, this game still has a chance of affecting playoff seeding for KC and Indy, so both teams will be going 100%.

For a division champ, the Colts are unremarkable. They rank 22^nd in overall offense and 19^th in defense league-wide, but Andrew Luck's 21/9 TD/INT ratio has helped to keep them in games, and his prowess as a comeback cultivator pushed them to a 9-5 record. Only five teams in the NFL have given up less sacks than Indy, which has allowed the talented youngster to stay accurate and smart in the pocket. Although he's harder to hate than any Raider, forcing Luck to fail today is historically relevant in a way that a win against Oakland could never be.

Not since the Montana years have the Chiefs won a playoff game, and today they're matched up against their probable opponent in this year's first round. A win today encourages a team and a fan base enough to think a deep playoff run is possible and a win in the first round is probable. Just try to wrap your head around how big a difference that is from how you felt as a fan this time last year. It looks like KC's Santa Claus is actually a Mormon with a walrus-style mustache.

Here are today's five predictions:

1- Indy upgraded their core of offensive skill players this offseason, but they're still mediocre at best without Reggie Wayne. T.Y Hilton will be today's biggest threat, and the Chiefs know it. KC will force Luck to beat them by spreading the ball around or running through them. Expect Luck to give four Colts not named Hilton at least two receptions each today.

2- Robert Mathis is the only linebacker in the league with more sacks than Tamba Hali or Justin Houston. Look for Smith to get dropped by this beefy, underrated vet at least once today.

3- Although Luck's been well-protected and kept picks to a minimum, he still fumbles the ball too often. In 30 NFL starts, he's fumbled the ball 15 times. Look for DC Bob Sutton to send a blind-side blitz that causes a key turnover today.

4- Because of Indy's familiarity with Donnie Avery, who played with the Colts last season, his production will be limited. The entire passing game, in fact, will be stymied by today's snowy, icy conditions in Kansas City. That leaves the door open for 25 to strengthen his bid for Offensive MVP. The Colts have the league's 27^th ranked rushing defense, so look for Jamaal to average more than 6 yards per carry in this game.

5- Thanks to favorable weather conditions, a fantastic home field advantage and an offense that's finding its stride, the Chiefs should come out with a win today. KC wins 30-24 in a gritty, exciting ball game. At least that's what I'm hoping, since only a Broncos loss to Houston or Oakland can make next week anything more than a meaningless scrimmage in San Diego.