Third-Down Improvements Key to KC Beating Baltimore, Retaining Super Bowl Hopes

The Kansas City Chiefs face off with their third elite opponent in four weeks when they meet the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead this afternoon. Now that the New York Giants brought some balance to the level of competition KC has faced, we can put more weight in the team stats accumulated so far. It's fair to think that only three games is still a small sample size, but 12 quarters is at least a good starting point for statistical analysis. I'm focusing mainly on offense and defense today, but kudos to Matt Araiza for ranking fourth league-wide so far in net punt yard average. Perhaps we'll look more closely at contributions from him and Harrison Butker when we're deeper into the regular season and there's more data to analyze.

KC's defense seems to be making strides more quickly than expected. The Chiefs rank between ninth and 11th in allowed total yards, passing yards, points per game and third-down conversion rate. That's great value for a team who is, according to Spotrac, right at league-average in spending on defense. The young talent in KC's secondary helped limit Giants' #1 receiver Malik Nabers to just two catches on seven targets for 13 yards last Sunday. Success against a receiver as good as Nabers feels huge for a Chiefs defense that will face off with guys like CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin and Baltimore's Zay Flowers.

While KC's defense is over-performing, the Chiefs offense is leaving many football fans around the world scratching their heads. KC's offense ranges from 15th to 18th in rushing yards, passing yards and total yards per game. Those are all disappointing numbers to behold for a Chiefs fan, but KC's third-down conversion rate is a far more alarming change. KC's offense is currently tied for 14th in third-down conversion rate. In their seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as a full-time starter, the Chiefs have never ranked below sixth in this category.

It's too early to be too worried about this, but the concern will grow rapidly with each week that things don't improve. Whether it's Travis Kelce looking more like his peak self or the return of KC's missing top two receivers, something needs to change to keep confident about the Chiefs' chances going forward. Clutch third-down conversions are a pillar of this dynasty's foundation. "Mahomes Magic" is a commonly used phrase in this city for a reason. Those seven seasons of Kelce and Mahomes (and Andy Reid's play-calling) dominating the league are more than enough evidence for me to predict a positive change for the Chiefs offense on third down going forward.

While the average 2025 game for KC is a 20-19 victory based on their averages for points scored and allowed, Baltimore is averaging a 37-32 victory. Lamar Jackson's long history of struggling against Mahomes and the Chiefs is the factor that gives KC the edge in this one. Lamar is 1-4 in his five chances to beat Mahomes, and Patrick has thrown for 747 more yards. I wouldn't be shocked if Baltimore wins today, but I'm still predicting a gutsy 26-23 victory for the Chiefs.

How KC Will Avoid Misery at MetLife

The way we think about this era of Kansas City Chiefs football could fundamentally change tonight. Winning against the 0-2 New York Giants on the road puts us all on the path back to normalcy, back to how we usually feel about this team. Losing at MetLife Stadium tonight would bring us to the franchise's lowest ebb since Patrick Mahomes became an NFL starter. Is the golden era of Chiefs football coming to an end, or can the Chiefs keep the good times rolling? To keep the magic alive, KC must now find a way to apply pressure to their opponent.

According to the guys at PFF, the Chiefs have the third-worst pass rush rate in football. Making the opposition uncomfortable in the pocket pays dividends in the modern NFL, and the Chiefs can't do it. I don't want to focus on excuses, but facing off with two highly-regarded quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, not to mention the highly-regarded offensive lines that protect them, may have something to do with KC's struggles in this area. When the Giants faced off with a Micah Parsons-less Dallas Cowboys defense, Russell Wilson finished the game with 450 passing yards and three touchdowns. Avoiding that kind of production is key to a Chiefs victory tonight, but Kansas City's defense will be missing a significant and pricey piece.

Chiefs defensive end Mike Danna will miss tonight's game due to a quad injury, so KC needs rookie Ashton Gillotte to step up. PFF graded both guys in the mid-50's so far this season, so perhaps the younger player with a higher ceiling could make the team better in the long-term. We'll see if Gillotte is ready to live up to the moment with his increased playing time tonight. Add him to the list of young Chiefs defenders that need to play well to keep this dynasty alive. It's nothing new to Steve Spagnuolo, and despite this concern about a lack of pass rush, Spags has still kept games close against two legit Super Bowl contenders this season.

Last week, Hurts finished with 101 passing yards and led his offense to score just 20 points. Even the great Saquon Barkley only ran for 88 yards. Herbert torched KC's young secondary in the Chiefs season opener, but Spags still put his defense in a spot where one stop on 3rd and 15 would have given Mahomes the ball back with a chance to nail a two-minute drive to win the game. This defense is not that far off from being good, despite being young. The ability to trust young talent like Gillotte, Chamarri Conner and others factors heavily into the sustainability of this dynasty. To trust the underpaid youth on the roster means everything to a championship-worthy franchise in any league with a salary cap.

That's also true for the Giants and their first-round draft pick Abdul Carter. He, along with Brian Burns and nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II, has the ability to wreck plays and ruin an opponent's game-plan. Andy Reid will need to win the chess match tonight by keeping these pieces out of dangerous positions, and I think he'll succeed just often enough for KC to get the win. The Chiefs shouldn't need 40 to beat the Giants like the Cowboys last week. The same Russ that put up a billion passing yards last week also failed to score a touchdown against the Washington Commanders in Week 1. The start of the season can be unpredictable and weird, but I'm predicting that our Chiefs begin to right the ship with a 27-20 victory tonight.

Will Persistent Penalty Problems Help Philly Fend Off KC?

Many, many things had to go wrong for the Kansas City Chiefs to lose last week's season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. With true #1 receiver Rashee Rice out due to a suspension, the Chiefs lost their next #1 when Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder less than two minutes into the game. Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished his day with a Passer Rating north of 130. Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor committed four penalties in the first 32 minutes of game-time. All these issues still left KC's defense with a chance to give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes late in the fourth - if only they could stop the Chargers from converting on that 3rd and 14 right before the two-minute warning.

The Chiefs incurred 10 total penalties, but eight of them were incurred with more than 13 minutes on the clock in the third quarter. Four of those eight were on Jawaan Taylor, who was tied for first last season in total flags drawn. He also represented 17.27% of the Chiefs' total penalties, which was the highest percentage in the NFL last season. Taylor has constantly drawn too many penalties throughout his career, so there is little surprise that he is the most penalized player in football after Week 1. To be the biggest penalty problem on the team, and to do so by the biggest margin in the NFL, all while representing a bigger cap hit than anyone not named Mahomes, is an objectively significant problem. 

Playing that kind of ugly football against the defending Super Bowl champs will probably result in a loss for KC. Philly's defense may not be as good as last season's after some significant offseason departures, but they seem to have retained their ability to apply pressure to opposing QB's. In Week 1, the Eagles pressured Dak Prescott 13 times, but Dak was able to evade most of the contact and play a relatively clean game. If Mahomes can do the same, the opportunity for big plays down the field should present themselves. KC needs to take advantage of these moments, all while tightening up in their own secondary, if they have any real hope to win this Super Bowl rematch. 

Justin Herbert excelled in the intermediate passing game last week, according to his most recent pass chart. Young Chiefs like Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks and Bryan Cook all need to improve coverage over the middle of the field within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or Kansas City is doomed against opponents with competent quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a tough job balancing this with trying to stop future Hall of Fame back Saquon Barkley from gutting KC's interior defense all afternoon long. Spags is a master at his craft, though, and I trust him to plug the right holes with creative blitzing packages and coverage schemes today. His ability to do so, plus the Chiefs' ability to limit costly penalties today, will decide who comes away from this big rematch with a win.

Like I said, I have faith in Spags to get the chess pieces where they need to be today. I'm predicting a fun, gritty 24-23 victory for our Kansas City Chiefs. I really, really don't want to be talking about Jawaan Taylor's penalties for another week of analysis. If that happens, we'll see Jaylon Moore getting more significant snaps very soon.

Will Chiefs' Changes Make Them Better In Brazil?

Football is back, and the Kansas City Chiefs' regular season begins in Brazil. What kind of changes can we expect to see on the field this time around? Many of the pieces that make KC a championship contender every season remain in place. Today, I'll take a quick look at the biggest changes on the Chiefs roster this season. While the loss of a couple key players from 2024 may generate some concern, the offseason changes on the offensive line should result in an immediate improvement.

The Chiefs traded away future Pro Bowler Joe Thuney before the new league year began on March 12th. KC still comes into this season with a better offensive line, thanks to the signing of Jaylon Moore and the savvy decision to sign Josh Simmons in the first round. The struggles at left tackle last year were well-documented, and all signs point to Simmons being the Chiefs' answer at that position for many years to come. Kingsley Suamataia should look much better at left guard, between Simmons and elite center Creed Humphrey, than he did when struggling at left tackle last season. This is all good news for a Chiefs offense that ranked 22nd in rushing yards per game in the '24 regular season and 18th in sacks allowed per game.

Losing the guy who played 90% of snaps at the strong safety position is undoubtedly difficult to overcome. Chamarri Conner looks good, but he now has big shoes to fill, and losing your only backup SS on the roster is also a significant obstacle. Safety is probably the team's weakest position now, but strides from young talent like Conner, Bryan Cook and Jaden Hicks could compensate nicely for this. All in all, it's the only place KC objectively downgraded, as long as you like Omarr Norman-Lott as a long-term improvement over Tershawn Wharton, who just got his big payday from the Carolina Panthers. Every other position group, in my opinion, stayed roughly the same or got better. How does Brett Veach keep doing this?

KC obviously isn't alone when it comes to dealing with injuries and roster changes. The Chiefs' Week 1 opponent will miss their elite left tackle for the season because of a torn patellar tendon. As if losing Rashawn Slater wasn't enough, the Los Angeles Chargers' newly acquired lineman Mekhi Becton was on Friday's injury report with an illness that now makes him questionable for tonight's game. Even without these health issues, the unique context of this game prevents me from predicting flawless execution of the game-plan from either team. It's a stand-alone Friday night game in Brazil, and it's only the second game of the NFL season. I think the Chiefs and their coaching staff are better-equipped to deal with this weirdness than practically any other team in the league. 

I'm predicting an exciting 24-20 victory for Kansas City. The Andy Reid script for the first several plays on offense should include context-specific stuff that should give the Chiefs an early advantage. If the playing field is rough, it's always worth remembering that the offense knows where their feet are going, while the defense does not. This bodes well for the man who is probably the most creative offensive play designer of all time. Welcome back to football season, Chiefs Kingdom. Enjoy it!