Back-Up Bryce Brings Banged-Up Rams to KC

Could the Los Angeles Rams really come into Arrowhead with a back-up QB and defeat the Super Bowl-caliber Chiefs today? No. Article over. See you next week. Okay no, there are intriguing aspects of this match-up to look over first. Concussion issues for the Rams' starting QB clearly poses a problem for L.A, but their defense has disappointed them this year, too.

The Rams defense allows the 10th-fewest yards per game this season, but they allow the 17th-lowest points per game. Aaron Donald only has five sacks. Bobby Wagner leads his team with 84 tackles, which is 16th league-wide. Conversely, only five guys in the league have more total tackles than KC's Nick Bolton. Only four have more sacks than Chris Jones. The Chiefs allow more passing and rushing yards per game than the Rams, but KC only allows 0.6 more points per game to their opponents.

The Chiefs enter today's game with a decisive advantage, and the quarterback situation for these banged-up Rams makes matters worse. Bryce Perkins is expected to start today in place of an injured Matthew Stafford. He's a dual-threat, athletic guy who went undrafted in 2020. Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. He's top-three in average yards per throw, QBR and Passer Rating. He's first in yards, yards per game and touchdowns. If the season ended today, only Mahomes and Tua Tagavailoa would likely receive #1 votes for MVP.

KC will end their day as the only AFC team with nine wins if they simply avoid beating themselves. If the Rams do anything well, it's avoiding penalties. L.A has the fewest flags thrown against them and the third-fewest yards lost to penalties in the NFL. I'm predicting a clean game and a relatively comfy 31-16 victory for KC.

Can Desperate Chargers Challenge Champs of Their Division?

I started the season thinking the Los Angeles Chargers would supplant our Kansas City Chiefs as the champs of the AFC West. That take looks pretty damn stale already, thanks in part to the Chargers' numerous injury concerns and growing pains. Justin Herbert and his crew still have Miami, Tennessee and the other L.A team on their schedule, so these 5-4 Chargers need to win tonight to maintain realistic playoff aspirations.

An inconsistent Chargers offense could get a boost (I'm avoiding electricity puns here on purpose) from two returning receivers who already have great chemistry with the team's struggling QB. According to Adam Schefter, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are expected to play tonight. That could be huge for Herbert, whose recent play has been undeniably disappointing. As NFL.com reported, Herbert has four straight games with a sub-90 Passer Rating and yards per attempt under six. A guy who I expected to be an MVP candidate this year now has a Passer Rating that ranks 17th among all QBs with more than one start this season, between the ratings of Andy Dalton and Jacoby Brissett. Conversely, Mahomes has dominated with his new troop of offensive weapons, and the other guys performing on his level can be counted on about half of one hand.

Honestly, the only QB consistently on Pat's level this year is, wait for it, Tua freakin' Tagavailoa. I guess Tua has a certain former Chief to thank for that, but that's a topic for another time.

The large cast of characters creating football's most unstoppable offense just grew larger with the Chiefs' acquisition and subsequent effective use of Kadarius Toney. Mahomes targeted Toney five times for four receptions and 57 yards against Jacksonville last week. Toney's impact should increase all-the-more this week because of Mecole Hardman's placement on the injured reserve list. Clearly, the timing of acquiring Toney and losing Mecole was impeccable. This should keep the NFL's #1 passing and scoring offense firing on all cylinders.

The Chiefs can and will end the Chargers' hopes at a playoff run tonight. The Chargers should put up a serious fight at home, especially considering the return of their receiving core. A desperate, motivated Justin Herbert could burn KC's imperfect secondary a few times, so I'm predicting a 34-31 shootout victory for Kansas City.

Can Trap-Game Trevor Terrorize KC? Probably Not.

The Kansas City Chiefs' winning ways often leaves Chiefs Kingdom drunk on the power of success, but losing to the Colts earlier this year served as a sobering reminder of the old "any given Sunday" adage. It's hard for a Chiefs fan not to wince when they remember that their guys lost to a football team that fired their head coach mid-season and replaced him with a high school coach. Another reminder of KC's fallibility came last week when they barely survived at Arrowhead against the Tennessee Titans, who were led by a rookie QB that is noticeably not ready for a starting role. 

Another young quarterback brings his team to Kansas City today, and many say he has all the makings of a future MVP. For now, Jacksonville Jaguars centerpiece Trevor Lawrence is only middle-of-the-pack. Lawrence ranks 17th and 19th in Adjusted QBR and Passer Rating, respectively this year. His six interceptions matches Mahomes, but while Mahomes has thrown a league-leading 21 touchdown passes, Trevor has only 11.

The help of a legit run-game makes the Jags' offense formidable nonetheless. Only four guys in the league have more rushing yards than Travis Etienne Jr. right now. With him leading the way, Jacksonville ranks seventh league-wide in rushing yards per game. As we've mentioned here before though, KC's rushing defense isn't the punchline it used to be. The Chiefs allow the league's fifth-fewest rushing yards per game to their opponents. This has a lot to do with Patrick Mahomes leading the Chiefs offense to the highest points-per-game average in football, since Kansas City's opponents must often pass at a particularly high rate in hopes of catching up.

The Jags look like a remarkably average team on paper, and the Chiefs need wins against every average team left on their schedule in order to stay in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed. I don't think Trap-Game Trevor overcomes the odds today, but I like the nickname because I'm pathetically in love with my own alliteration. I'm predicting a 31-17 win for KC.

KC's Improved Rushing Defense Faces Titanic Test

Two division-leading perennial playoff teams with 5-2 records face off tonight, and the spread is 12.5. That seems weird, but the Kansas City Chiefs' recent past looks a bit different than that of the visiting Tennessee Titans.

The Titans lost their first two games against the Giants and Bills, but rebounded to win five straight against the Raiders, Colts, Commanders, the Colts again and Houston. None of those losing teams are expected to be great this year, but Tennessee can only play the teams on their schedule. Also, to be totally fair, Indy beat KC, and Tennessee overcame the mighty Colts twice. Predicting Tennessee's effectiveness against a legit team at this point of the year could be difficult, because they haven't faced anyone good since the second game of the season. What's similarly tough to predict is the Titans' effectiveness at the quarterback position today, since normal starter Ryan Tannehill is still a game-time decision to play, and nobody yet knows the true potential of the young protégé Malik Willis.

Having Tannehill under center would at least give Tennessee the best chances of winning the turnover battle. Only the Bucs, Eagles and Giants have thrown fewer picks than Tennessee this season. Aside from this, Tannehill provides no special threat to KC's defense. Tannehill's passing yards per game ranks sixth-lowest among QBs with at least five games played this year. That actually isn't abysmal considering that Tennessee's offense has the NFL's third-lowest passing play percentage. Clearly, that offense revolves around Derrick Henry.

Nobody in football has more carries, and nobody in football looked more dominant last week, when Henry ran for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. Only injuries can stop Henry from being the focal point of Tennessee's offense. KC's rushing defense actually looks solid this season, after what felt like decades of struggling in that regard. The Chiefs are holding opponents to 4.2 yards per carry, which is seventh league-wide, and 92 rushing yards per game, which ranks third.

If KC finally has the defense capable of limiting top-shelf rushing talent like Henry, it's hard not to predict victory for the Chiefs. 12.5 is a bit steep, though. I'll say the Chiefs win 30-21 and maintain somewhat realistic hope of eventually reclaiming the AFC's #1 seed. 

San Fran's Elite D Could Concern KC

Our Kansas City Chiefs lost a bummer of a home game last Sunday to a tough playoff contender with a great defense. This week, they're heading west to face a tough playoff contender with a great defense. The biggest difference between the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers should be the difference between defeat for KC last week and victory today.

Last Sunday's 24-20 Bills win featured the two best quarterbacks in football. This week's game will feature one of those two and also Jimmy Garoppolo. That Niners defense is Super Bowl-worthy, but that offense has been outscored by Chicago, Denver and Atlanta. Christian McCaffrey could greatly improve things in time, but a guy who joined the team this Thursday can only be expected to do so much. Unfortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, San Fran's elite defense gives them a chance to win despite limited success from the offense.

This Niners defense allows the NFL's second-fewest points and fewest yards per game. Only the Dallas Cowboys sack the opposing QB at a higher rate. San Francisco also allows the ninth-lowest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL. The one thing Buffalo does way better than San Fran on defense, however, is forcing turnovers; the Bills are second league-wide in total takeaways while only 10 teams have fewer takeaways than San Francisco.

I don't expect the Chiefs defense to look elite yet, but they held the second-highest scoring team in football (KC is still first) to 24 last week, which is 5.3 points lower than Buffalo's season average. The Chiefs accomplished this without Trent McDuffie or Willie Gay, and Gay returns to action this afternoon. Allen's 117.6 Passer Rating against KC last week is concerning, but practically nobody thinks Jimmy G is on Allen's level. Garoppolo's completion percentage ranks 17th among QBs with at least three starts this season. His Passer Rating is a respectable 8th-best, but his QBR is the league's 10th-worst.

San Fran leans heavily on their successful, multi-faceted rushing attack - only seven teams in the NFL have a lower passing percentage - but Chiefs Kingdom knows better than any fanbase just how valuable an elite QB can be when the game is on the line. Let's call last week the exception to the rule. Patrick threw some picks, and I wrote an article about how the Chiefs were about to score a bunch against the Bills - we all had a bad week. Now is the time for KC to get back on track and get a tough win over tough competition. I'll predict a gritty 27-17 victory for Kansas City.

Expect Plenty of Points When Chiefs Face Buffalo

Last Monday did not go according to plan for our Kansas City Chiefs, but they ended that night victorious. After KC looked unstoppable against Brady's Bucs in Week 4, Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders almost stunned the Chiefs at the last second. Speaking of stunning a team at the last second, the Bills are in town. The top two teams in the AFC, and perhaps the NFL, face off today for the first time since their insane playoff thriller. We never know how these meetings with the Buffalo Bills will go, but we can safely predict a bunch of points on the scoreboard.

Both the Chiefs and Bills have scored over 30 in three out of five weeks, which is more impressive than usual considering the lack of scoring throughout the rest of the league. 23.6 points per game gets a team into the top ten this year, whereas last year it took 26.5 points. It's hard to do better than Josh Allen's 424 passing yards and four touchdowns last week. The struggling KC secondary that got exposed by Davante Adams on Monday must now face a potentially more potent threat in Allen and Stefon Diggs. Opponents are compiling a 105.5 Passer Rating against the Chiefs' defense, which puts them at 28th in that statistic, while Buffalo is the league's best in this regard, holding opponents to a 67.8 Passer Rating.

Also, the Bills' secondary has 8 picks, and the Chiefs have just one. That seems like plenty of evidence to make me pick the Bills today, but I'm not doing it. There's just something about the Chiefs playing a bad game, win or lose, that makes them better in the following week. We can safely say KC plays up and down to their competition, so we should see them at their best again today. Despite Buffalo looking like legit Super Bowl contenders, and possibly frontrunners, I'm predicting that the Chiefs win another thriller, 38-34, and take the clear lead in the hunt for the AFC's #1 seed.

Can KC Keep Crushing Revamped Raiders?

Each passing year makes me feel two years older and twice as confident that early October is the best chunk of time on the calendar. As playoff baseball and spooky season both begin, as the countless different shades of gold and red emerge from the trees around us, so, too, do the true identities of teams in the NFL. Our Kansas City Chiefs just racked up 41 points on one of football's greatest defenses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had allowed 27 total points in the three games prior to facing KC. The Chiefs scored more than that in the first half. How will Mahomes' offense fare tonight when they face a struggling Las Vegas Raiders defense?

Vegas ranks in the bottom half of the league in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. Only the Arizona Cardinals have fewer sacks per game. If they hope to keep this game close, the Raiders will need to succeed on third down. Their opponents' 35.42% conversion rate on third down is ranked a respectable 13th league-wide - three slots higher than KC's defense. The Chiefs' offense, on the other hand, converts slightly over 51% of its third down conversion attempts. Only the Buffalo Bills are more successful at moving the chains on third down.

The Raiders' offense just played their best game of the season so far, and more of that success might make tonight's game dramatic. Davante Adams caught nine passes from his former college QB Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and two touchdowns while also catching five passes. It's no surprise that Vegas' first win of the year came in the first game in which these guys both looked great.

Vegas may be improving, but the Chiefs already look like the best team in football. Only Josh Allen's Bills can argue that fact at this point. I think the Raiders will have every reason to come into this game motivated and ready to win. That means Vegas could keep this one close. If they do, history indicates that KC is still destined for victory and the Raiders are about to screw everything up for themselves. Such is the true identity of each team. With that in mind, I'm predicting a 31-24 victory for KC tonight.