San Fran's Elite D Could Concern KC

Our Kansas City Chiefs lost a bummer of a home game last Sunday to a tough playoff contender with a great defense. This week, they're heading west to face a tough playoff contender with a great defense. The biggest difference between the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers should be the difference between defeat for KC last week and victory today.

Last Sunday's 24-20 Bills win featured the two best quarterbacks in football. This week's game will feature one of those two and also Jimmy Garoppolo. That Niners defense is Super Bowl-worthy, but that offense has been outscored by Chicago, Denver and Atlanta. Christian McCaffrey could greatly improve things in time, but a guy who joined the team this Thursday can only be expected to do so much. Unfortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, San Fran's elite defense gives them a chance to win despite limited success from the offense.

This Niners defense allows the NFL's second-fewest points and fewest yards per game. Only the Dallas Cowboys sack the opposing QB at a higher rate. San Francisco also allows the ninth-lowest 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL. The one thing Buffalo does way better than San Fran on defense, however, is forcing turnovers; the Bills are second league-wide in total takeaways while only 10 teams have fewer takeaways than San Francisco.

I don't expect the Chiefs defense to look elite yet, but they held the second-highest scoring team in football (KC is still first) to 24 last week, which is 5.3 points lower than Buffalo's season average. The Chiefs accomplished this without Trent McDuffie or Willie Gay, and Gay returns to action this afternoon. Allen's 117.6 Passer Rating against KC last week is concerning, but practically nobody thinks Jimmy G is on Allen's level. Garoppolo's completion percentage ranks 17th among QBs with at least three starts this season. His Passer Rating is a respectable 8th-best, but his QBR is the league's 10th-worst.

San Fran leans heavily on their successful, multi-faceted rushing attack - only seven teams in the NFL have a lower passing percentage - but Chiefs Kingdom knows better than any fanbase just how valuable an elite QB can be when the game is on the line. Let's call last week the exception to the rule. Patrick threw some picks, and I wrote an article about how the Chiefs were about to score a bunch against the Bills - we all had a bad week. Now is the time for KC to get back on track and get a tough win over tough competition. I'll predict a gritty 27-17 victory for Kansas City.

Could Panthers Present Problem for Promising Chiefs?

Practically zero football teams throughout the years are without a significant flaw. Our Kansas City Chiefs sometimes struggle to stop a potent rushing offense, despite their winning ways. The universe's greatest running back lines up today opposite a Chiefs defense that ranks fourth league-wide in rushing yards allowed per game. Christian McCaffrey may be rusty, but feeding him is the Carolina Panthers' best bet today and any day. On the other side of the ball, one of history's greatest combinations of quarterback and coach will work to make McCaffrey's contributions irrelevant.

Numbers indicate that Carolina's defense is remarkably average in most regards. All in all, 12 teams in football hold opponents to fewer points per game than the Panthers. The Chiefs faced two of those teams so far, the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots, and KC handled them both. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid guarantee the Chiefs an advantage in raw skill and experience over virtually any quarterback/coach tandem in football. This remains undoubtable when facing Teddy Bridgewater and rookie HC Matt Rhule. 

The Panthers could keep things close, as only Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers have defeated Teddy's Panthers by more than a single score this season. The current 10-point spread in favor of our Chiefs could bely an opportunity for a tight ball game today, especially if the returning McCaffrey looks healthy and refreshed. Carolina does well defending against tight ends, and KC's wide receiver core is depleted due to injury, so I expect a lot of running the ball by both teams. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could have one of his best performances of the season today as the Chiefs overcome a game Carolina squad 30-20.