Two division-leading perennial playoff teams with 5-2 records face off tonight, and the spread is 12.5. That seems weird, but the Kansas City Chiefs' recent past looks a bit different than that of the visiting Tennessee Titans.
The Titans lost their first two games against the Giants and Bills, but rebounded to win five straight against the Raiders, Colts, Commanders, the Colts again and Houston. None of those losing teams are expected to be great this year, but Tennessee can only play the teams on their schedule. Also, to be totally fair, Indy beat KC, and Tennessee overcame the mighty Colts twice. Predicting Tennessee's effectiveness against a legit team at this point of the year could be difficult, because they haven't faced anyone good since the second game of the season. What's similarly tough to predict is the Titans' effectiveness at the quarterback position today, since normal starter Ryan Tannehill is still a game-time decision to play, and nobody yet knows the true potential of the young protégé Malik Willis.
Having Tannehill under center would at least give Tennessee the best chances of winning the turnover battle. Only the Bucs, Eagles and Giants have thrown fewer picks than Tennessee this season. Aside from this, Tannehill provides no special threat to KC's defense. Tannehill's passing yards per game ranks sixth-lowest among QBs with at least five games played this year. That actually isn't abysmal considering that Tennessee's offense has the NFL's third-lowest passing play percentage. Clearly, that offense revolves around Derrick Henry.
Nobody in football has more carries, and nobody in football looked more dominant last week, when Henry ran for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. Only injuries can stop Henry from being the focal point of Tennessee's offense. KC's rushing defense actually looks solid this season, after what felt like decades of struggling in that regard. The Chiefs are holding opponents to 4.2 yards per carry, which is seventh league-wide, and 92 rushing yards per game, which ranks third.
If KC finally has the defense capable of limiting top-shelf rushing talent like Henry, it's hard not to predict victory for the Chiefs. 12.5 is a bit steep, though. I'll say the Chiefs win 30-21 and maintain somewhat realistic hope of eventually reclaiming the AFC's #1 seed.
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