Sunday, October 11, 2020

Chiefs Ready to Rock Raiders' Shaky Defense

Vegas think's we'll beat Vegas in comfortable fashion today. To be more clear, the Vegas oddsmakers currently favor our Kansas City Chiefs by 10.5-11 points against the freshly relocated Las Vegas Raiders today. However, that shaky meeting with New England last week conjured some real concern in Chiefs fans. A legit QB with a bunch of haters to prove wrong and a Wild Card spot to fight for should incite more fear than every QB on the Pats' roster not named Newton combined. Derek Carr will provide us a proper test today, as his strengths align perfectly with the weaknesses of Kansas City's defense. Unfortunately for the team that used to represent the Chiefs' arch-nemesis, the Raiders' inadequacies elsewhere on the depth chart suggest that KC's dominance is bound to continue.

The Raiders seem poised to claim the #2 spot in this division after playing respectably against tough competition in the first four weeks of the season. They beat a Carolina Panthers club with a healthy Christian McCaffrey in Week 1, then surprised many with a win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 2. They've lost two straight since then, first to the Pats and last week to the impressive Buffalo Bills, so you could still say they've only lost to teams that are probably playoff-bound.

Carr and Patrick Mahomes exceled through the first quarter of the season with a surprisingly short passing attack. Carr and Mahomes both have an average of yards per passing attempt that ranks in the bottom five of the league amongst healthy starters, yet they both have Passer Ratings that rank in the top six. The Raiders may find success with this style against an underwhelming core of KC linebackers, especially with Carr's growing reliance on TE Darren Waller. They may stretch the field with that successful short passing attack enough to take some shots with speedster rookie wide-out Henry Ruggs III, a guy I was totally in love with during this year's draft. He's listed as questionable today, but whether he's effective or not, Carr and Company match up well against an injury-riddled KC secondary and an underperforming core of linebackers.

All that may work pretty well, but our man Mahomes will have plenty of opportunity for success today, too. Vegas gives up a bunch of yards through the air and on the ground, and their pass rush is one of the worst in football. Patrick Mahomes always plays well against the Raiders, and Derek Carr always plays poorly at Arrowhead. Whatever advantage Las Vegas has against KC's defense pales in comparison to how the Chiefs stretch the field with speed and exploit mismatches with Travis Kelce. Last week's win was relatively ugly for the Chiefs, but at least it gives this dangerous offense something to prove this week. I expect Kansas City to enjoy a comfy 38-24 victory, since apparently enjoying boring victories over the Raiders is now a city-wide tradition as common as barbeque and complaining about the weather.


Monday, October 5, 2020

Patriots Provide KC A Key Test Despite Cam Newton's Absence

Our Kansas City Chiefs overcame their presumed competition for the conference crown last week with relative ease, and tonight they face off against a ghost of their peculiar past. The New England Patriots won't be fully operational today without Cam Newton leading the offense, but could Bill Belichick and a defense that still commands respect stun the football world with an upset over our Chiefs? If so, how?

KC could increase New England's odds and increase the heart-rates of fans like me by stumbling out of the gates, and they've been susceptible to that lately. After finishing in the top ten in 1st quarter scoring during their championship campaign, the Chiefs entered Week 4 ranking second-to-last in the NFL with 2.2 first quarter points per game this season. New England's defense has allowed only 3.3 points to opponents in the 1st quarter this season, and that can only be bested by six defenses in football.

A slow start for KC could save the Pats from an early slaughter, and their defenses excels at disrupting opponents' short-to-intermediate passing game. It's almost like Bill looked at what his own team accomplishes with the same offensive strategy and said, "don't let that happen to my defense." Today will provide us with a strength-on-strength matchup featuring perhaps the two best football minds in the game. The intrigue of such a meeting of the minds makes me even more bummed that we don't get to see how this new Pats squad looks with Cam healthy.

Stats indicate that Patrick Mahomes is averaging shorter, quicker passes this season, which may sound like a let-down to some fans in the Kingdom. However, there's a big, beautiful reason why football savant Andy Reid utilized this change in strategy, and his multi-faceted reasoning further exemplifies his unique savvy.

First, it's important to note that this short-pass strategy gives defenses the old Muhammad Ali "okey-doke" before delivering some key knockouts by landing long-pass haymakers, kinda like how KC just victimized the highly-touted Baltimore Ravens. It also makes the Chiefs' newest weapon more unpredictable, as Clyde Edwards-Hellaire could damage a defense equally via run or reception. Clyde is key to this change because he completes Kansas City's total coverage of the field with their offense. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce already stretch opposing defenses to their limits, but now the new #25 is here to turn "spread the field" into a major understatement. If he proves to be worthy of a first-round pick, it's gonna feel like cheating.

I don't think the Pats can stop the Chiefs when Cam is healthy, and part of me hopes that's some juicy foreshadowing, but that means my prediction for today isn't in doubt. I think our Chiefs win a comfy 34-17 game while I imagine Bill wringing his hands like a comic book villain and calculating his strategy for next time...

Monday, September 28, 2020

Mahomes vs. Jackson III Epitomizes Must-See Football

Fear is my first feeling as a fan envisioning tonight's game. As a fan, I fear the uniquely skilled QB facing off against our Kansas City Chiefs. I fear Lamar's leg's and their ability to hurt KC's recently iffy rushing defense. I fear how drastically he improved last season, and I fear that he looks even better right now. I also fear the studly, proven Baltimore defense. What I do not fear is our QB's ability to step up to a challenge of this magnitude. He's done it before, and he'll do it again. However, how many times can Patrick Mahomes pull it off against another potential face of the sport in Lamar Jackson?

Lamar vs. Mahomes epitomizes a must-see matchup. Comparing the two is as inevitable as it is entertaining. Both played in 33 games prior to tonight's face-off. My guy Mahomes has a remarkable 89/18 TD/interception ratio. Lamar's at 83/9. Both claimed their franchise's first MVP award in their second season of a potentially legendary career. Patrick's piled up 9925 passing yards, while Lamar's racked up 2000 rushing yards. That's an average of more than 300 passing yards per game for Patrick Mahomes and over 60 yards per game via Lamar's legs.

When facing the Chiefs, Lamar ran for 67 and 46 in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Mahomes finished each meeting with over 370 passing yards. Expect both men to step up in tonight's spotlight yet again. This incites those wonderful main-event prize fight feelings in me, and I can only hope this game lives up to the hype. If the Chiefs' D doesn't show up though, we're in for a shootout. Baltimore's defense and effective rushing attack would surely give them the advantage in such a game if not for Patrick. He's got Lamar's number, and I cannot predict that to change tonight. I'll pick our Chiefs in a back-and-forth 34-31 game that reminds everyone watching of which two teams are the cream of the crop in this conference.


Sunday, September 20, 2020

Can Chargers Challenge Chiefs for Divisional Dominance?

Your Kansas City Chiefs achieved victory last Sunday when they soundly defeated the Houston Texans, but does today offer a tougher challenge? The Los Angeles Chargers escaped Week 1 with a 16-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals were, uhh, not good last year, and are expected to be, uhh, not quite exactly as good as your Chiefs will be this year. Protecting Patrick Mahomes from the likes of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa will be important for the Chiefs today, since limiting the record-breaking KC offense is a key first step to any effective Chargers game-plan. Bosa recorded one of L.A's three sacks last week, but KC's offensive line is objectively a cut above the group defending Joe Burrow in Cincy.

Don't be shocked or scared if Tyrod Taylor's comfort level as a Charger grows and he looks good against a Chiefs defense with a seriously depleted secondary. Second-year defensive back Rashaud Fenton and rookie L'Jarius Sneed will presumably start today's game due to the absences of Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward. That would worry me more if KC's depth chart didn't list the best duo of safeties in perhaps the entire league. Let's remember how lucky we are as Chiefs fans that the tandem of Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill anchors this otherwise iffy secondary.

KC's defense must also make due without Alex Okafor, but the Chargers enter today's game without trustworthy veteran center Mike Pouncey. The sensational and freshly-paid Chris Jones could cause chaos in the middle of the field when he lines up against Dan Feeney, a fourth-year lineman who usually plays guard and usually doesn't sport such regrettable facial hair. The Chiefs' D is better than the Bengals' defense that held L.A to 16 points and Tyrod Taylor to 16 completions in 30 attempts for 208 passing yards. I like Tyrod, and he still has a chance to have a better year than his overrated predecessor Philip Rivers, but L.A doesn't have enough firepower on either side of the ball to keep up with KC this year. I foresee the Chiefs cruising to a comfortable 38-17 victory.

Thursday, September 10, 2020

A New Chapter of Our Chiefs Chasing History Starts Now

We are all part of a unique and legendary moment in Kansas City football history, Chiefs Kingdom. The freshly-paid prince of this city and this sport in general returns with the vast majority of his Super Bowl-winning supporting cast for another chance to achieve greatness of the grandest scale this sport can provide. You know the hashtags. You've heard the word "dynasty" passed casually around town, with or without the important word "potential" in front of it. We're just moments away from beginning Chapter 2 in the tale of our team working towards historic greatness. Maybe it's Chapter 3 or 4, depending on where you want to start. We can't get ahead of ourselves, though. Do the Houston Texans have any chance of screwing up this early chapter in this amazing story?

It's not easy to predict how successful the 2020 Texans can be. Brandin Cooks will be limited today, or perhaps I should say more limited than the rest of these newly acquired Texans receivers and backs who have negligible experience with this offensive scheme. I'm hesitant to believe that losing DeAndre Hopkins and picking up other, less-talented pieces will make Houston's offense better.

New acquisitions for Houston's defense such as PJ Hall and Ross Blacklock may step up and make themselves an unexpected problem for KC's offensive line, especially with Laurent Duvernay-Tardif away being a real-life hero and medical science polymath. The also-freshly-paid Deshaun Watson may use his new variety of receivers to poke holes in a Chiefs secondary with plenty of room for improvement. A certain legendary playoff comeback for our Chiefs surely gave Houston enough fuel to cook up a whole bag of chips to put on their shoulder tonight, but I don't think that will be enough to overcome KC.

Patrick Mahomes is still the most valuable athlete in this and perhaps all sports, and he's got all his same weapons from a squad that just became champs. I think I'd be confident in KC winning this game even if Mahomes didn't have a first-round pick stud in Clyde Edwards-Helaire to incorporate into this legendary offense. Unless I missed something, Houston didn't do much to improve a secondary that gave up the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL last season. 

The absence of Breeland coinciding with the return of impressive second-year safety Juan Thornhill indicates that perhaps the best safety tandem in football will provide support for an otherwise exploitable core of cornerbacks. Houston's points-per-game average ranked 14th in the league last season. They only outscored KC's 28.2-point average six times in the regular season. I think Chiefs Kingdom will enjoy a stylish 34-24 victory tonight. Enjoy the return of your defending champions.


Thursday, April 23, 2020

Will Chiefs Chase History By Defying Draft Logic?

NFL draft speculation is dominating sports media in this unique time-frame in which the sports world is otherwise paused. It makes me wish I was already a draft mega-nerd, but I sadly don't have the chops that these experts have. As a wannabe journalist and a long-time fan of your world champion Kansas City Chiefs, I can only express my own desires and fears. With all of Chiefs Kingdom riding a wave of confidence that can come only from Super Bowl success, it only makes sense that what I want from this draft is defined more by fans' desires than by their fears.

I did not want a wide receiver initially, despite the apparent depth of worthwhile picks available, but things change quickly when talking about the draft. I thought about maybe five positions before thinking about wide receiver for the first-round pick, but it's worth remembering that the Chiefs probably won't have Sammy Watkins or Demarcus Robinson after this upcoming season. With that in mind, rumors about KC trading up for Alabama receiver Henry Ruggs III caught my attention and slowly started sounding more believable. Quotes that Andy Reid "loves Ruggs" gave me visions of a possible future that induced some serious goosebumps.

Ruggs ran a ridiculous 4.27 forty-yard dash and oozes with natural talent. His already-high projection as a first-round pick somewhere between #10 and 20 overall was perhaps damaged by starting at 'Bama alongside fellow elite receiver prospect Jerry Jeudy. Some say Ruggs displays more skills relatable to excelling as an NFL wideout than Jeudy, who many experts rank as their #1 receiver prospect. Henry's the fastest guy in the draft, regardless of position, and suddenly I realize that I really, really want him on my team at all costs.

It's not as if the Chiefs are totally screwed if they don't draft for a particular position. The front line of Steve Spagnuolo's defense has some depth and talent already, and the safety position is as solid as it can be. I read numerous Chiefs blog offerings about Kansas City aiming for an offensive lineman, but this speculation came before we knew the Canadian doctor would return to wear red and gold this season. Now that Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is officially back in action and veteran Mike Remmers will also be joining the squad, I don't think Veach wants to go O-Line in the first round, either.

I don't have the kind of drafting wisdom that the experts have, but I know the Chiefs lack depth at the linebacker and cornerback positions. If KC picks someone from either of these positions, I'll still be happy, as a lot of talent will reportedly be available at #32. Noah Igbinoghene is athletically impressive and also shows some incredible instincts and anticipation skills. A.J Terrell from Clemson is a physically gifted CB, and linebackers like Patrick Queen or Zack Baun project as one of the best Chiefs at that position in years. I'll be damned, though, if this silly wide receiver rumor doesn't have me salivating a little bit.

Honestly, if we draft anybody in the first round that isn't a QB, I'll just assume Brett Veach knows best and stay content. After all, Veach built a roster that brought back a ring, and I wanted to draft Watson instead of Mahomes.

Speaking of Veach, he already went out and added depth at numerous other positions of need by singing or re-signing trustworthy veterans. All his recent moves could be perceived as evidence that he would like to maintain his ability to draft for talent instead of drafting for need. That philosophy makes sense when the vast majority of a Super Bowl-winning roster is already set to return this upcoming season. Despite their aforementioned lack of depth on defense, the Chiefs don't "need" to draft any particular position. Drafting a trustable linebacker or CB would ease some concerns in the Kingdom, but that doesn't define it as something KC "needs". So, why wouldn't Veach pick somebody that he and Andy Reid thinks can achieve greatness?

Brett Veach deserves credit for trying to go big if Ruggs III is a significant part of his plan. Imagine if the Alabama standout becomes the standout in the NFL that many of the league's best talent analysis experts think he can be. The Chiefs will have Patrick Mahomes throwing to Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and another star with elite speed for at least two full seasons - and they'll be able to somehow afford it.

Trading up is a risky, expensive ordeal, and deciding to do so would mean that the entire organization thinks the potential reward outweighs the big risk. Upgrading the offense with another elite receiver would give KC the potential for historically unprecedented success on offense. Making this decision would mean that Veach and Reid envision Henry Ruggs III turning the Chiefs into the greatest offense in football history.

I don't know if it's the smart thing to hope for, but the heart wants what it wants.

Precisely zero mock drafts that I can find have the Chiefs doing this, but predicting a team to trade up is tough. I say that, but two mock drafts from CBS Sports include the Philadelphia Eagles or Denver Broncos trading up to acquire the 'Bama blazer instead, and those aren't the only interested teams. Other possible destinations for Ruggs III include San Francisco and Las Vegas. It sounds like Chiefs Kingdom could wind up loving or hating him based on what happens tonight.

I'll still buy into drafting anybody that doesn't help KC's lack of defensive depth because of Brett Veach's previous triumphs as a big-time decision-maker. For many reasons, this truly unique draft should be seen by Chiefs Kingdom more as a source of fun than a source of stress. Let's all enjoy the respite as much as possible.

Doug LaCerte writes about Kansas City sports and mostly neglects Twitter and Facebook until there's stuff going on that's actually worth talking about.

Sunday, February 2, 2020

Mahomes Makes Chiefs Championship Favorites

Are you ready for the most important football game of your life, Chiefs Kingdom? I thought the extra week between games would be unbearable, but it turned out to be euphoric. Part of me wants it to never end. I really will miss having the world's eyes on this team we all hold so close to our hearts. I may not be emotionally ready for all this, but Patrick Mahomes is, and he'll be the difference maker today. The San Francisco 49ers are a more complete team with a stout defense and a frighteningly effecting running game. The most important player in Chiefs franchise history faces another seriously daunting test, but can his talent, wit and will bring our Chiefs a championship?

You've probably heard about the five first-round picks that make up the the Niners' defensive line. You probably know Richard Sherman, future Hall of Famer defensive back and perennial dream-killer for young NFL quarterbacks. You probably remember a certain edge rusher named Dee Ford, too. The effectiveness of San Fran's defense as a whole should not be understated, but their job today is to stop a guy who was seemingly built in a video game to poke holes in great defenses. Having the best deep threat and the best receiving tight end in the universe doesn't hurt.

If San Fran double-teams Tyreek, then Travis Kelce will gouge the admittedly solid second layer of that defense. Double-team Travis, and the Chiefs will have an excellent route-runner in Tyreek Hill ready to find small spaces in San Francisco's zone-heavy defense. Double-team both of these superstar passing targets and watch Mahomes scramble for big gains while distributing to Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman. The pick-your-poison line about multifaceted offenses is cliche, but it fits this team to a T.

The tenacity and poise of San Fran's defense limits the amount of big plays made by every team they face. Patrick is just too good, however, at making something magical happen when a play breaks down or must be extended. These kind of matchups are how truly epic sports moments are born. Mahomes needs to be great to give the Chiefs a chance at a championship, but Chiefs Kingdom knows that nobody in this world is more capable of such greatness.

Kansas City already overcame that 24-point playoff deficit against the Texans. They already overcame the prototypical underdog and ended the Cinderella story for a Titans team which also had the consummate Boogeyman at running back. This 49ers team should concern us as Chiefs fans, but now the Kingdom and the team itself is above fearing any team in football. San Francisco could make our hearts pound out of our chests today by looking really good, but the Kingdom knows that Patrick Mahomes is ready to be great. This is his league now. This is his time.

Enjoy every moment of this, Chiefs Kingdom. Remember how much it means to Andy Reid and Andy Reid's entire family and every person who ever played for Andy or went to the same school as Andy or sold Andy a cheeseburger. Remember how great sports can feel when we're all in this together. Hug the people who love football and love you. This is our time, too. Make the most of it.


Doug LaCerte still neglects his Twitter and Facebook, but he appreciates every member of The Kingdom experiencing this moment with him.