Vegas think's we'll beat Vegas in comfortable fashion today. To be more clear, the Vegas oddsmakers currently favor our Kansas City Chiefs by 10.5-11 points against the freshly relocated Las Vegas Raiders today. However, that shaky meeting with New England last week conjured some real concern in Chiefs fans. A legit QB with a bunch of haters to prove wrong and a Wild Card spot to fight for should incite more fear than every QB on the Pats' roster not named Newton combined. Derek Carr will provide us a proper test today, as his strengths align perfectly with the weaknesses of Kansas City's defense. Unfortunately for the team that used to represent the Chiefs' arch-nemesis, the Raiders' inadequacies elsewhere on the depth chart suggest that KC's dominance is bound to continue.
The Raiders seem poised to claim the #2 spot in this division after playing respectably against tough competition in the first four weeks of the season. They beat a Carolina Panthers club with a healthy Christian McCaffrey in Week 1, then surprised many with a win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 2. They've lost two straight since then, first to the Pats and last week to the impressive Buffalo Bills, so you could still say they've only lost to teams that are probably playoff-bound.
Carr and Patrick Mahomes exceled through the first quarter of the season with a surprisingly short passing attack. Carr and Mahomes both have an average of yards per passing attempt that ranks in the bottom five of the league amongst healthy starters, yet they both have Passer Ratings that rank in the top six. The Raiders may find success with this style against an underwhelming core of KC linebackers, especially with Carr's growing reliance on TE Darren Waller. They may stretch the field with that successful short passing attack enough to take some shots with speedster rookie wide-out Henry Ruggs III, a guy I was totally in love with during this year's draft. He's listed as questionable today, but whether he's effective or not, Carr and Company match up well against an injury-riddled KC secondary and an underperforming core of linebackers.
All that may work pretty well, but our man Mahomes will have plenty of opportunity for success today, too. Vegas gives up a bunch of yards through the air and on the ground, and their pass rush is one of the worst in football. Patrick Mahomes always plays well against the Raiders, and Derek Carr always plays poorly at Arrowhead. Whatever advantage Las Vegas has against KC's defense pales in comparison to how the Chiefs stretch the field with speed and exploit mismatches with Travis Kelce. Last week's win was relatively ugly for the Chiefs, but at least it gives this dangerous offense something to prove this week. I expect Kansas City to enjoy a comfy 38-24 victory, since apparently enjoying boring victories over the Raiders is now a city-wide tradition as common as barbeque and complaining about the weather.
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