Chiefs Somehow Underrated Entering So-Called Super Bowl Rematch

The so-called rematch to last year's Super Bowl happens this afternoon, and the underdog in that game is the team who hasn't lost since winning it all last year. I guess I can see the odds-makers' perspective after all these Kansas City Chiefs injuries, but I'm still putting my money on the defending champs today. Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 against the spread in his career. Andy Reid is 21-4 as a head coach coming off a bye week. KC's injury concerns deserve recognition, but injuries also gave the San Francisco 49ers a unique problem to handle this week.

San Fran is starting their third kicker in three weeks after both Jake Moody and Matthew Wright suffered injuries while attempting tackles during a kick-off. This could be big for a Niners offense ranking 25th league-wide in red zone touchdown-scoring efficiency. They aren't facing many elite defenses, either. Half their opponents so far rank in the bottom eight for yards allowed, and only one ranks higher than 14th. They haven't faced a team with a defense that ranks higher than the Chiefs in both points and yards allowed per game. A quick look at their season so far would indicate that this revered 49ers squad has been inconsistent.

San Francisco has played the Jets, Vikings, Rams, Patriots, Cardinals and Seahawks. They beat the Jets, Pats and Seahawks. I know that seeing Mahomes' Passer Rating at 19th is weird, but San Fran's wins all came against QBs with ratings lower than that. Their best game of the season came against the 3-3 Seahawks, and when they face off with any other playoff-caliber opponent, they lose a close game. To think something else would happen today seems illogical, so I'm predicting a 26-20 victory for Kansas City. An extra week for Andy Reid to work out how this offense operates with the current weapons at its disposal should give the Chiefs the edge today.