The 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs are back at Arrowhead to face the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders in a rare Friday afternoon game. Chiefs fans are hopeful their team keeps hold of the #1 seed in the playoff bracket, while Raiders fans are presumably hopeful that a top-five pick in next year's draft could make them less miserable. Kansas City just added D.J. Humphries for some much-needed help at left tackle, while the Raiders just lost their starting QB Gardner Minshew to a season-ending collarbone fracture. KC already beat the Raiders less than three weeks ago when Vegas had a healthy Minshew. There's little reason for hope for the Raiders today, or any time soon.
Nobody runs the ball for fewer yards per game than Las Vegas this season. That leads to struggles with moving the sticks and controlling the clock, as is evident by the Raiders ranking 25th league-wide in average time of possession. The Chiefs' effective rushing attack paired with strong coaching has led to them ranking fourth in average time of possession this season. I suspect that the Chiefs wish to dispose of the Raiders with minimal drama and risk to player health, so they should bleed clock when they have the lead. With an over/under of 42 points in today's game, I'd undoubtedly lean towards betting the under.
Anyone predicting a win for the Raiders today is just a troll or a clickbait creator. Patrick Mahomes' career Passer Rating of 108.5 against the Raiders suggests that he enjoys beating up on the noisy little brother of the division. Vegas' rankings in points scored and points allowed have dropped off since last season. They're the worst team the Chiefs will face all year aside from the Panthers, but KC didn't exactly destroy Carolina last week, so perhaps today's game won't be as lopsided as the 13.5-point spread would indicate. For the record, Vegas lost to those same Panthers by two touchdowns in Week 3. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for the Chiefs that feels like more of a blowout than the final score indicates.
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