Can KC Bounce Back With Win Over Brady's Bucs?

The teams meeting in this week's Sunday night game have quite a lot in common. Both teams are coming off disappointing defeats. Both teams are still Super Bowl contenders. Both teams started this season in shaky fashion. Both team's QB's will end their career as one of the game's all-time greats. Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes gets a ton of media attention, and for good reason, but Tom's Tampa Bay Buccanneers offense looks inefficient so far.

Tampa's offense ranks 24th in scoring and 27th in yardage. However, practically every Bucs receiver has struggled with injuries this season. Today, despite being listed as questionable, key Tampa wideouts Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and Julio Jones are all expected to play. This unit's cohesion will decide if the Bucs can finish a game with more than 20 points for the first time this season.

The Bucs defense, on the other hand, already looks Lombardi-ready. No team in football allowed fewer points per game through three weeks, and only three teams allow lower total yardage. I guess averaging 17 points a game works just fine when the defense allows just 9 a game. While KC's defense has succeeded in pressuring opposing QB's, Tampa is one of only four teams who have more sacks than KC's 10. Whichever team can keep their superstar quarterback most comfortable will win tonight's game. Brady has Patrick's number throughout his career, and unless both these teams go on to reach the Big Game, this will be Mahomes' final chance for some payback.

This one should be close, and it could be a classic. Tampa's defense is legit, but their secondary still has flaws that Mahomes can exploit. I'm predicting a bounceback 24-21 victory for KC.

Patrick's Prolific Passing Presents Problems for Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons began the year 0-5, and after losing their last three games, they are now winless in December. Atlanta's four wins came when the faced the Vikings, Panthers, Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. It is now impossible for any of those teams to finish this season with a  winning record. Both sides of the ball deserve blame for this underwhelming season, but what went wrong with these still-star-studded Falcons?

Atlanta continues to feed Todd Gurley II a lot, but that strategy seems to be part of their problem. None of the 10 running backs with more than Gurley's 182 carries average less than his 3.5 yards per carry. Chiefs first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire has one less carry than Gurley and averages 0.9 more yards earned with his opportunities. Establishing a consistent running game makes sense when Derrick Henry is on the roster, because that guy averages more than five yards gained when he runs the ball. When a team heavily features someone as ineffective as Gurley, they set themselves up for a whole bunch of 2nd and 9's on offense.

Kansas City also faces an underpowered Falcons passing attack, as a hamstring problem will keep dangerous receiver Julio Jones out of today's game. Calvin Ridley may frustrate Chiefs fans a few times, but the rest of Atlanta's offense pales in comparison to the wealth of talent on KC's offense. 

The Falcons struggle mightily against good passing offenses and good tight ends. The Chiefs will undoubtedly bring those things with them to Georgia today. Travis Kelce ranks as #2 in the NFL in receiving yards among all players at all positions. Kelce consistently causes chaos across the middle of the field when facing teams with weaknesses similar to Atlanta's.

Even if the Falcons play top-shelf defense, the Chiefs are prepared to overcome that. The Dolphins, Ravens, Patriots, Bucs and Saints all rank in the top eight in points allowed per game. They all lost to the Chiefs. This Kansas City offense is tested. It continuously proves itself to be nearly unstoppable, and this game represents KC's chance to secure the #1 playoff seed in the conference. With plenty to play for, a uniquely great Chiefs offense faces a Falcons defense that struggles against any modestly effective passer. I predict that the Chiefs will earn a bye week with a 33-21 victory today.

Week 13 In The Georgia Dome: Why KC Can Win

Your 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs just defeated the Super Bowl champs, but they’ll be the underdogs again today. According to Oddsshark.com, the 7-4 Atlanta Falcons need four or five points to cover the spread at the Georgia Dome this week. As I did my homework for this important meeting between two playoff teams, a trend quickly made itself apparent; the reasons why KC “should” lose this game all boil down to the coaching staff.

The Chiefs need a plan to limit Julio Jones’ effectiveness, but local media won’t let me forget that Bob Sutton’s defense never changes. Marcus Peters can shut down half the field on most plays while Jones lines up and attacks whichever part of the field the Falcons prefer at the moment. Atlanta is the league’s worst passing defense, yet we all know about Andy Reid’s stubborn and sometimes-stupefying play-calling on offense. That’s not to mention our struggling franchise QB. Then we have the injuries to not only the team’s best receiver but also one of history’s best running backs. It’s hard to pick the Chiefs to win this week. I’m still doing it.

KC’s stellar defense matches up today against the highest-scoring team in football, as KC’s recently-ugly offense faces a mediocre Atlanta defense. Last week, the Chiefs took an injury-riddled defense to Denver and won against one of this era’s greatest defenses. KC played a ridiculously incomplete football game and still managed to beat the Super Bowl champs at their house. The Chiefs needed all the tremendous help they got from the special teams and defense in order to win last week, but there’s reason to believe they’ll have more game-changing moments going forward.

Leading the league in turnover differential is not a fluky way to a winning record when those turnovers are clearly caused by a certain defensive strategy. Peters won’t stop jumping routes for picks, even if it means he gets burnt for it on occasion. A healthy combination of Justin Houston and Dee Ford, with some Tamba Hali sprinkled in, should consistently provide enough pressure to force mistakes from opposing QB’s. It’s simple when you read it here, sure, but Bob Sutton’s job is to complicate things for the coaching staff on the opposite sideline. Numerous game-changing moments like Eric Berry’s pick-six in Carolina prove that Sutton is doing so successfully. Maybe, to an extent, he doesn’t change the defense up because he shouldn’t.

The numbers indicate that Julio Jones can catch roughly a thousand passes today and still not ensure victory for Atlanta. Denver’s Emmanuel Sanders beat up on Phillip “now synonymous with toast” Gaines and the rest of the Chiefs secondary for 162 yards last week. You may remember that Denver was unable to win that game. Oakland’s Amari Cooper caught 10 passes for 129 yards while KC destroyed the Raiders in Week 6. Saints receiver Michael Thomas had virtually the same numbers against the Chiefs while KC handled New Orleans in Week 7. When a good receiver gets hot against the Chiefs, he’ll make his fantasy football owners happy, but it doesn’t spell disaster for Kansas City.

I know it undoubtedly sounds cliché, but the league-leading +14 turnover differential for your Kansas City Chiefs is a huge part of their identity, and a huge part of why they can win today. Especially after I described a team without an identity earlier this season, not mentioning turnovers would be simultaneously unsound as a journalist and stupid as a Chiefs fan trying to predict the outcome of this huge game.

The realistic chance of a KC win should give all Chiefs fans good vibes today, especially since this is the most “okay-to-lose” game of the season. It’s only a 16-game regular season, so there is never a loss that doesn’t sting, but you know what I’m sayin’.

Once I get another real writing gig, I’ll never get the chance to end a paragraph with “you know what I’m sayin’” again, so I’ll just leave it at that. Chiefs win another thriller, 26-23, and my emotional hangover continues.

Doug LaCerte tries using Twitter @DLaC67 all the time, but typically forgets about it until Sundays. He also still has Facebook.