Week 13 In The Georgia Dome: Why KC Can Win

Your 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs just defeated the Super Bowl champs, but they’ll be the underdogs again today. According to Oddsshark.com, the 7-4 Atlanta Falcons need four or five points to cover the spread at the Georgia Dome this week. As I did my homework for this important meeting between two playoff teams, a trend quickly made itself apparent; the reasons why KC “should” lose this game all boil down to the coaching staff.

The Chiefs need a plan to limit Julio Jones’ effectiveness, but local media won’t let me forget that Bob Sutton’s defense never changes. Marcus Peters can shut down half the field on most plays while Jones lines up and attacks whichever part of the field the Falcons prefer at the moment. Atlanta is the league’s worst passing defense, yet we all know about Andy Reid’s stubborn and sometimes-stupefying play-calling on offense. That’s not to mention our struggling franchise QB. Then we have the injuries to not only the team’s best receiver but also one of history’s best running backs. It’s hard to pick the Chiefs to win this week. I’m still doing it.

KC’s stellar defense matches up today against the highest-scoring team in football, as KC’s recently-ugly offense faces a mediocre Atlanta defense. Last week, the Chiefs took an injury-riddled defense to Denver and won against one of this era’s greatest defenses. KC played a ridiculously incomplete football game and still managed to beat the Super Bowl champs at their house. The Chiefs needed all the tremendous help they got from the special teams and defense in order to win last week, but there’s reason to believe they’ll have more game-changing moments going forward.

Leading the league in turnover differential is not a fluky way to a winning record when those turnovers are clearly caused by a certain defensive strategy. Peters won’t stop jumping routes for picks, even if it means he gets burnt for it on occasion. A healthy combination of Justin Houston and Dee Ford, with some Tamba Hali sprinkled in, should consistently provide enough pressure to force mistakes from opposing QB’s. It’s simple when you read it here, sure, but Bob Sutton’s job is to complicate things for the coaching staff on the opposite sideline. Numerous game-changing moments like Eric Berry’s pick-six in Carolina prove that Sutton is doing so successfully. Maybe, to an extent, he doesn’t change the defense up because he shouldn’t.

The numbers indicate that Julio Jones can catch roughly a thousand passes today and still not ensure victory for Atlanta. Denver’s Emmanuel Sanders beat up on Phillip “now synonymous with toast” Gaines and the rest of the Chiefs secondary for 162 yards last week. You may remember that Denver was unable to win that game. Oakland’s Amari Cooper caught 10 passes for 129 yards while KC destroyed the Raiders in Week 6. Saints receiver Michael Thomas had virtually the same numbers against the Chiefs while KC handled New Orleans in Week 7. When a good receiver gets hot against the Chiefs, he’ll make his fantasy football owners happy, but it doesn’t spell disaster for Kansas City.

I know it undoubtedly sounds cliché, but the league-leading +14 turnover differential for your Kansas City Chiefs is a huge part of their identity, and a huge part of why they can win today. Especially after I described a team without an identity earlier this season, not mentioning turnovers would be simultaneously unsound as a journalist and stupid as a Chiefs fan trying to predict the outcome of this huge game.

The realistic chance of a KC win should give all Chiefs fans good vibes today, especially since this is the most “okay-to-lose” game of the season. It’s only a 16-game regular season, so there is never a loss that doesn’t sting, but you know what I’m sayin’.

Once I get another real writing gig, I’ll never get the chance to end a paragraph with “you know what I’m sayin’” again, so I’ll just leave it at that. Chiefs win another thriller, 26-23, and my emotional hangover continues.

Doug LaCerte tries using Twitter @DLaC67 all the time, but typically forgets about it until Sundays. He also still has Facebook.

AFC West's Best Faces Defending NFC Champs

Our Kansas City Chiefs found a way to avoid losing against a considerably lesser opponent last week, but in just minutes, the Chiefs face the defending NFC champs. We know Kansas City won't win all the games they "should", but they "should've" lost against the Jags last Sunday. The Chiefs earning a win in ugly fashion, and without many of their most important pieces, stands as evidence that KC is legit. However, fans can't take too much from a victory against such an inferior team. We can rest easy knowing they snuck away with a win, but it wasn’t a pretty moment for the Nick Foles-led Chiefs.

The cellar-dwelling 2-6 Jaguars dominated Kansas City in practically every important statistic, except for the stat that matters most - turnovers. Chiefs reporter BJ Kissel pointed out that during this four-game winning streak, the Chiefs never turned the ball over, and the defense forced 10 turnovers. Since the last time KC turned the ball over, the Denver Broncos have lost two games and given up the ball seven times. So, who's the best team in the AFC West?

I think it's the Chiefs, but man, it's close. The Oakland Raiders proved...something by beating up the Broncos last Sunday night, but I still don't think they proved they're as legit a team as the Chiefs. If anything, the Raiders only proved that Denver is less-daunting an opponent than I assumed.  The incredible softness of Oakland’s schedule and a commanding KC victory in The Black Hole tells me our Chiefs are the cream of the crop in the NFL’s best division. The extremely impactful emergence of Dee Ford could be the biggest reason why.

After myself and many others deemed him a bust, Dee Ford may end up helping KC reach a Super Bowl this year and solidify their defense in years to come. Thinking about this new-and-improved Ford opposite a fully functioning Justin Houston is enough to give me goosebumps. If Houston looks like himself shortly after returning to play this season, watching this duo will inspire confidence and make the diminishing production from Tamba Hali much less sad. Only six QBs in the league have been sacked more often than Cam Newton, so Ford’s contributions today could decide KC’s status in the division (for now).

On the other side of the ball, Carolina ranks 4^th in sacks, and their front seven consistently stifles their opponents’ running game. KC ranks 27^th in rushing yards allowed, while Carolina ranks 3^rd. Spencer Ware is back in action now, and the Chiefs need him to succeed against a dominant defense in order to successfully control the clock in Carolina today.

Turnovers, or a lack thereof, will ultimately decide this game. Carolina owns the NFL’s 5^th-worst turnover ratio, while KC has the league’s best. If the Chiefs continue on this pace, they’ll have a good chance at a win today, but it won’t be easy against a Panthers D that looks more daunting with every stat I read. Without the ability to manage the game by successfully run the ball, Andy Reid’s offensive game plan often goes haywire.

I’m predicting a 24-17 defeat for our Chiefs this afternoon, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see KC win. If they make me look stupid (won’t be the first time) and come away with a nice road victory, our Chiefs will be a bona fide first-place team for the first time this season. That would be something to be thankful for, but hey, let me save my corny Thanksgiving material for next week.

Doug LaCerte enjoys insulting the Raiders on Twitter @DLaC67, and he's still ignoring friend requests from numerous family members on Facebook.

3 Things KC Must Do to Win in Denver

So we got this, right guys? Total trap-game, right? The Kansas City Chiefs bring a deflated team to Denver in the coming hours, and most would consider their chances to be sigh-inducingly slim. What can KC do to make this game competitive, or even pull off a stunner at Mile-High? Well, sadly, the gameplan for victory this Sunday involves some awfully lofty goals. If KC ends the day with a seemingly miraculous 1-1 record, a lot of things will have gone very, very right. Here are the three things that must happen for KC to win this afternoon:

 

3- Jamaal Charles gets 15 touches or more for 150 yards or more.

Andy Reid took some well-deserved flak for Jamaal having only 11 touches in Week 1, but he also deserves credit for being candid and honest about his failure in that regard. It should be clear that Reid will make #25 more of the offensive gameplan this time around, but a struggling offensive line must also succeed in giving their star player a seam on running downs. Despite this being the easiest goal on this list to accomplish, it’s far from a safe bet against an improved Denver defense that now includes Vince Wilfork stuffing up the center of the field.

 

2- Chiefs win the turnover ratio by at least +2.

Shaun Smith and Marcus Cooper are both polarizing starters in KC’s secondary that sometimes get burnt and sometimes make incredible, game-changing plays. As fans, we can only hope that we get the good side of that coin today. If first ballot Hall of Famer Peyton Manning helps us out with some errant passes, nobody in the Kingdom will complain, but the Chiefs clearly aren’t banking on that. To force turnovers, KC needs to go out and get them. This means pressuring Manning to get rid of the ball early and allowing the aforementioned guys in the secondary to go after that pick-six with reckless abandon. Maybe with a better team on paper KC would avoid such a rogue gameplan, but not this year, and especially not today.

 

1- Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe combine for 3 or more sacks on Manning.

With the dreadful loss of both Mike Devito and Derrick Johnson, the Chiefs absolutely must see their other big-name defensive players step up if they want to be anything close to relevant this season. Multiple sacks, especially early in the game, can keep Peyton uncomfortable and lessen the chance of huge plays against that unproven secondary. KC’s chances to pull this off will begin and end at the line of scrimmage.

 

It’s an important sports day in KC, what with the Royals continuing their playoff race and the rival Detroit Tigers playing a day-game as well. Today could be remembered as a shining moment for both clubs, or the beginning of the end of their respective seasons.   

Chiefs/Broncos Round 2: An Arduous Attempt at Arrowhead

Well, shit. I didn't see that coming, but who did? Who would have predicted that the Chiefs would lose the cornerstones of their blitz game, and the offense would put up 38 points in a losing effort? Last week's game with the Chargers was about as fun as they get, until the very end. If only the Chiefs could have bled a few more seconds off the clock, we could be talking about a one-loss team with an offense that's finally coming to life. Instead, KC heads into their second game with Denver with some serious doubts and concerns.

If not for some lofty injuries, KC could be looking at this game with confidence in their ability to make things interesting. Unfortunately, after the roster went largely unblemished throughout the first half of the season, the Chiefs will again be seriously hindered today by injuries. Justin Houston will definitely miss this game, and Tamba Hali, Eric Fisher, Jon Asamoah and Mike DeVito are all questionable. Devito missed Friday practice for non-injury reasons, and the rest of the aforementioned players had limited participation in practices throughout the week.

If the Chiefs can make this game close, it could be one for the history books. Do they really have what it takes to limit Peyton with a downgraded defense and make this a tight game? My five predictions inspire less hope than I'd like to admit.

1- KC needs to win the turnover ratio to stop this game from getting out of hand, let alone winning. Their failure to do so over the last two weeks has resulted in KC's only two losses of the season. I'll try for a third time to predict a positive ratio for KC that helps them keep this game close.

2- Jamaal finally went off last week, after getting a chance on some screen passes and getting some holes to shoot through on running downs. Denver isn't stupid enough to let #25 burn them today, so look for other options to come open with much of the attention on Charles. Dexter McCluster and Donnie Avery should combine for at least 6 catches and 150 yards of offensive production this afternoon.

3- The Chiefs have been steadily productive on special teams, but they need to pull out all the stops to win today. Expect one big play to flip the field for KC and keep things tense for Peyton and the Broncos.

4- Whether it's Moreno or Montee Ball at RB, Denver will continue its success with running the ball. DeVito is an undervalued veteran on that defensive line whose impact will be sorely missed on running downs today. Expect Denver to pick up at least 90 yards on the ground against that hobbling KC defense.

5- Without the ability to get pressure on the league's best QB, KC's secondary is bound to struggle. Manning's ability to shred the Chiefs through the air will be the key to a disappointing loss. Peyton throws for at least 375 yards to win 38-24 and hand the Chiefs their third straight loss. Ugh. I'd really love to be wrong about this one.