Herbert's Consistently Clean Play Could Present Problems for KC

Instead of making quick work of the Raiders last week like I expected, The Kansas City Chiefs won yet another ugly game. Tonight, the competition gets much tougher when the Chiefs face off with the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers look great on paper - great coach, great quarterback, great defense. However, their lopsided record this season is a bit of a mirage. While KC keeps proving that they can win hotly contested, ugly games, the Chargers have only proven that they can beat opponents that are mediocre-at-best.

The Chargers have only beaten one team that currently has a winning record - The 8-4 Denver Broncos. Every other legit team they've faced - the Steelers, Chiefs, Cardinals and Ravens - defeated them. When they win, the Chargers' defense defines "bend, don't break" more than any other team in football. Despite ranking just 10th-best or lower in allowing total yards, passing yards and rushing yards, L.A allows the fewest points per game by a wide margin. The teams ranked second to seventh in the league right now all allow between 18 and 18.7 points a game. The Chargers allow just 15.7 points per game.

Pairing their strong defense with Justin Herbert's ability to limit turnovers has been key to the Chargers' success so far. Patrick Mahomes has thrown a surprisingly high 11 interceptions this season, which is eleven-times more than Herbert has thrown. Herbert's newly acquired wisdom has helped the Chargers to the third-best turnover differential in the league, and it should help them keep tonight's game close. The Chargers offense lost numerous recognizable names like Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but Herbert is actually averaging more yards per attempt this season than in any other season in his career. His Passer Rating this season is 0.1 points lower than it was in the best season of his career.

All this should add up to a tough, tight ballgame. It's important to remember how banged-up KC is on special teams; their kick returner and their last three kickers are all missing today's game due to injury. As long as the Buffalo Bills stay hot on the Chiefs' heels in the race for the top seed in the conference, KC will have motivation to keep winning through these last five regular season games. The Chiefs only mustered 17 points last time they faced the Chargers, but L.A could only score a touchdown and field goal each in that game. I'll go with another low-scoring affair decided by only a handful of key moments. I'm predicting a 20-17 victory for Kansas City.