Can KC Claim Crucial Victory in Vegas?

Our eyes now turn to the desert where the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Las Vegas Raiders in a pivotal divisional face-off. The winner here undeniably takes the inside track in the race for the AFC West. Can the Chiefs play a complete enough game to claim victory tonight? We can at least see that their defense looks up to the task recently.

This Chiefs defense held opponents to a touchdown or less in five out of their last eight halves of football. Chris Jones moving to the inside with the addition of an immediately effective Melvin Ingram made a major impact, as did the improving health of KC's secondary. Perhaps the most important recent change is the emergence of Nick Bolton and Willie Gay as trustworthy, dynamic athletes in the middle of the Chiefs defense. The presence of these capable, young linebackers will improve both Kansas City's defense and financial status for years to come.

All these improvements defensively flips this teams' identity, especially when paired with surprising struggles of Patrick Mahomes. Despite perhaps the worst stretch of football in his still-young career, I cannot expect Mahomes to be mediocre today or ever. This week is just different, not only because of the Raiders, but because of the chance KC has to take hold of their division.

Some regression to the mean must also be expected regarding the production of each teams' QB. Mahomes ranks 16th in QBR, and right behind him at 17 is Derek Carr. The Chiefs' half-a-billion-dollar man finished 2nd overall in that category last season, and Carr finished at 11th. 

Vegas has also just shown the league that they can limit the opposition's quarterback, but they also showed that it may not matter. The Raiders allowed only 110 passing yards last week while sacking the opposing QB twice and hitting him six times. Despite this, they still lost to Daniel Jones' Giants.

Like I remind myself every week, it's not all about KC's quarterback. The Chiefs should utilize their emerging rushing offense against this Raiders defense that allows the fifth-fewest passing yards per game and the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season. If Andy Reid and the rest of the coaching staff can do this effectively, it should give the Raiders plenty of time to beat themselves. I predict a hard-earned 27-23 victory for the Chiefs tonight.

Will Packers Present Problems to Chiefs in Anti-Vax Aaron's Absence?

Packers fans can thank the "immunized" Aaron Rodgers for giving the Kansas City Chiefs a major advantage today, but that's not the whole story. A flawed Chiefs team that eked out a win against the New York Giants last Monday must still face a Green Bay Packers defense that just limited Kyler Murray enough to hand an L to the previously undefeated Arizona Cardinals.

Green Bay ranks ninth or better league-wide in points allowed, total yards allowed and passing yards allowed per game. The Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills are the only teams the Chiefs have faced that rank higher than the Packers in passing defense. As you probably remember, both of those teams defeated Kansas City. That Packers defense will face off with a young QB with suddenly plummeting stock in the eyes of the sports media, as Patrick Mahomes is off to the worst start to a season that he's ever experienced.

His Adjusted QBR is a full 20 points lower than any season total in his career. He's one interception away from tying the combined total from his previous two seasons. He's still just a few moments away from shaking off this apprehension and getting back to being an all-time great, and I cannot be convinced otherwise. For now though, he has a lot of critics to prove wrong.

It's important (for me) to remember that Mahomes isn't the whole story every week. Kansas City's future at the linebacker position looks bright as Nick Bolton and Willie Gay are making strides in their development. That should be important when facing a Packers team focused on running the ball successfully and moving the chains with short passes, even when Rodgers is playing. The relationship between KC's alternative running backs and the new offensive line blocking for them also seems to be improving rapidly. Since Green Bay's secondary is one of the league's best, and their rushing defense is just average, KC could use this to their advantage today.

Should this be enough to help Kansas City get the job done this afternoon? I believe so. The Chiefs cannot lose this game when they're .500 and facing a quarterback in his first NFL start. Maybe Kansas City winds up being one of the best 4-4 teams ever, or maybe the flaws we've seen actually make them far closer to average than Chiefs Kingdom can currently accept. A victory for the Chiefs today still leaves us with a bunch of what-if questions, but a defeat at the hands of a backup quarterback would solidify many fears about Kansas City's many flaws.

The Chiefs are consistently losing to playoff-caliber football teams and beating below-average ones. Nobody knows with certainty what the identity of this Packers team will be with Jordan Love running the offense. He's a talented guy learning how to do his job from one of the best to ever do that job, so I expect him to play well, but he's not outplaying a motivated Mahomes today. I predict that we'll see a close game due to both Love's grooming and Kansas City's still-glaring flaws. The Chiefs should win - I'll go with 27-23 - and reclaim a winning record.

Chiefs' Flaws Fueling Fans' Fears

Everyone sees the Kansas City Chiefs differently now after they looked lost against playoff-caliber competition like the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. Certain players, coaches and management apparently at fault for these recent struggles are under the microscope now, perhaps more than ever before. A win against a banged-up 2-5 New York Giants team wouldn't quiet the rightfully loud critics, but a loss could make the playoff hopes for the once-mighty Chiefs look highly unrealistic.

Thankfully, I cannot predict that such a disappointing defeat will take place tonight. The Chiefs have taken care of the other flawed teams from the NFC East when they handily defeated both the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team. With the current Vegas spread sitting at +10 1/2, the stage is clearly set for the Chiefs to succeed tonight. Since they have a clear advantage over New York and a tough stretch of the schedule coming up next, the natural instinct to look past the Giants could be tough for KC to overcome. Does that make this a trap game for the Chiefs?

It's far from impossible. Remarkably ineffective defense and eye-catching turnover issues have conjured up more fear in Kansas City than anything Halloween can offer us. The Chiefs rank 26th or worse in points allowed per game, points allowed per play, passing yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. No other team in the league can make that claim. The Chiefs ALSO rank 26th or worse in total takeaways, interceptions, fumbles, total giveaways and turnover differential. These flaws make Kansas City a team that's hard to trust, regardless of their opponent.

The Chiefs are now desperate to win every game against teams on their schedule who aren't among the elite in the league because that schedule includes many more games against the teams who are. A defeat at the hands of a team that Vegas oddsmakers expect KC to beat by double-digits could theoretically take the Chiefs out of the playoffs. That desperation could be medicine or poison for a Chiefs team that's been through all the highs and lows of championship glory together and still never looked this flawed.

I believe a new sense of urgency will prove useful to this tested, veteran-heavy Chiefs roster moving forward. Regardless of any urgency-based motivation, the Giants will still line up against one of the worst defenses in football tonight. Whether that defense can improve enough to even be considered average remains to be seen. I'm not expecting all of the fear-inducing problems with this Chiefs team to disappear over a week of practice, so I can't predict domination tonight. I'll go with an ugly, stressful 30-24 victory for the Chiefs that keeps Kansas City's fans nearly as stressed as before the game began. Chiefs Kingdom knows the road to glory has just become unexpectedly perilous.

Can Patrick's Passing Prowess Overcome Derrick Henry's Dominance?

The Tennessee Titans just shook things up in the AFC with a victory over the Buffalo Bills. This wasn't one of those weird, fluky games where crazy turnovers happen or timely penalties cost the superior team a victory. The Titans and Bills each turned the ball over just once, and Tennessee gave up 31 more yards via penalty than Buffalo did. The Titans just got the job done against a Bills team that looked, for a moment, like the best team in the conference.

This is an impressive feat, but it could turn out to be a major anomaly. Prior to their win against Buffalo, Tennessee faced four straight teams with defenses ranking no better than 20th in yards allowed per game. The currently undefeated Arizona Cardinals smoked the Titans 38-13 in Week 1, which means last week's victory over the Bills was Tennessee's only successful showing against a strong defense so far. Luckily for Titans fans, the Titans and the frontrunner for MVP will face off this Sunday with a defense that is objectively not strong, to put it kindly.

The Chiefs rank 27th league-wide in rushing yards allowed per game and 30th in opponent yards per rush attempt. KC linebacker Anthony Hitchens has already been ruled out, and Chris Jones' status is still listed as questionable. That's bad news for a team trying to stop this era's version of Jim Brown. Titans superstar Derrick Henry compiled at least 110 rushing yards in each of his last five games. He's going to beat up a bad Chiefs rushing defense, and that's no hot take, but will it be enough to make up for Tennessee's own flaws on defense?

Opponents with good offenses score a lot on this Tennessee defense that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards and fourth-most points to opponents this season. The only two teams with winning records that Tennessee has faced this season scored at least 30 points, and so did the 2-4 Seattle Seahawks when Russell Wilson was still healthy. If Derrick Henry couldn't ensure victory for the Titans against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets, fans in Chiefs Kingdom should be excited about Patrick Mahomes' performance today. I'm predicting a 37-34 victory for a Chiefs team with plenty of concerns on defense and plenty of firepower on offense.

Will Patrick Punish Washington's Weak Pass Defense?

The Washington Football Team and the Kansas City Chiefs enter today's meeting with identical 2-3 records. I sure as hell did not predict that. I did predict that KC would ultimately come up short against the Buffalo Bills last week, but I wasn't expecting such a wide gap on the scoreboard. The key difference between last week's game and this one will be the ability of Kansas City's opponent to exploit their weaknesses.

Buffalo entered last week's game with a strong rushing attack, a studly secondary and the league's best turnover differential. The Chiefs entered that game with turnover concerns and a defense with no identity, or at least not a positive one. Buffalo reaped the rewards of these advantages and sent Kansas City sports radio into a dynastical death-declaring panic. Washington has Scary Terry McLaurin averaging 13.8 yards per catch this year, but their offense is otherwise remarkably average. Buffalo now boasts the league's best turnover differential at +11 while Kansas City drops to the second-worst at -7, but KC is one of only four teams with a differential worse than Washington's -3. The Chiefs only put 20 on the board last week against the legitimately elite Bills defense, but they should have better chances of succeeding against a Washington defense that allows the league's fifth-most passing yards per game.

If it wasn't already obvious, the problem here is not the Chiefs offense. Kansas City ranks fifth league-wide in points per game and fourth in total yards. Patrick Mahomes still ranks second in touchdown passes and Adjusted QBR while remaining top-eight in passing yards, completion percentage and Passer Rating. He's doing this while throwing as many picks through his first five games this year as he threw in either of his last two seasons.

Chiefs Kingdom should be excited to see what a guy like Mahomes does when motivated and maybe even angered by this undesirable start to the season. I'm predicting a 41-27 victory and a return to relatively clean football for the Chiefs today. Dropped passes, turnovers and penalties are topics I don't want to discuss for the rest of my life, let alone this week.

Buffalo's Strengths Present Problems for Flawed Chiefs

How will our 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs look when they take the field against the conference's other top dog? The 3-1 Buffalo Bills looked downright dominant in their last three weeks. Our Chiefs dropped two of three and made many fans wonder about their weaknesses. Unfortunately for Chiefs Kingdom, those weaknesses worth wondering about are weaknesses that tonight's opponent is built to exploit.

After losing to Pittsburgh in Week 1, Buffalo has scored 118 points and allowed just 21. They've shut out two of their last three opponents. Buffalo's offense scores the second-most points per game in the NFL. This compliments a strong defense that attacks opposing quarterbacks, which is clearly something Kansas City struggles with this season. Only three teams average fewer sacks per game than the Chiefs, and only five teams average more sacks per game than the Bills.

It's an all-around matchup nightmare for Kansas City. Buffalo's strengths can theoretically limit KC's strengths and exploit their weaknesses. The Bills rank 9th league-wide in yards per rush attempt, and nobody allows more yards per rush to opponents than our Kansas City Chiefs. While the Chiefs are still 6th in yards per pass attempt, Buffalo has allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt in the league this season. The Bills also have the best turnover differential at +7, and only four teams have a worse differential than the Chiefs' -3.

It looks bad for the Chiefs when seen from this perspective, but understanding the level of competition each team has played against alters that perspective entirely. The Bills faced off against Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington and Houston. The 2-2 Washington Football Team is the only team Buffalo has faced this season that has won more than one game. The Bills truly have not been tested, and the hungry, hard-to-stop Chiefs will be miles better than anyone on Buffalo's schedule so far. Kansas City, on the other hand, has played against three playoff-worthy 3-1 teams...and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Picking a winner this week is no easy task. It's difficult to determine how much the differences in each teams' schedule affect their statistical rankings. No matter who Buffalo has played this year, my eyes tell me they're a team with a strong rushing attack and secondary. Because of the aforementioned clashes of weaknesses and strengths in Buffalo's favor, I have to predict a 30-27 Bills victory. Still, it won't be stunning if Patrick Mahomes pulls of something magical and KC gets it done. I'll spend my night hoping for that magic and hoping that my predicting is totally wrong.

How Will Chiefs Respond to Early Adversity?

It took several turnovers and game-changing penalties to get it done, but our Kansas City Chiefs reacted to their disappointing defeat in Baltimore with a disappointing defeat at Arrowhead. Few expected this. Chiefs Kingdom is shaken. The space between games felt painfully long this week. Ugly turnovers at inopportune moments cost the Chiefs two out of their first three games as they faced off with some of the AFC's best, but today will be different. Today, KC faces off with a 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles team led by a talented young quarterback experiencing significant growing pains in an organization with no expectations of reaching the playoffs this year.

It's no surprise that KC is a big favorite today, but if the Chiefs let this week's game stay interesting for long, the success-hungry fans of Kansas City will consider it an underperformance. Patrick Mahomes and a motivated Chiefs team should finish today with their biggest margin of victory of the season so far, and maybe their biggest of the entire year. Philly just lost to the Dallas Cowboys by 20, as Dak Prescott completed over 80% of his passes and threw for three touchdowns. Chiefs deep threat maestro Tyreek Hill only caught five passes last week and three the week before. I expect his impact on this game to be bigger than it was in these last two weeks, and I expect the Chiefs to overwhelm the Eagles with their superior offensive firepower.

What could turn this potential blowout into another nail-biter, or worse, another heart-breaking L for the Chiefs? The obvious answer is turnovers, which can ruin even the most well-crafted gameplan, but what else? KC's run defense is bad right now, and Jalen Hurts' running ability presents problems for bad run defenses. The Chiefs defense allows the second-most rushing yards per game and the second-most points per game league-wide. It's worth noting once again, though, that the Chiefs experienced these struggles while facing three of the best teams the AFC has to offer. Philly has upside, but they're objectively the worst team on paper that Kansas City has faced so far this season. Aside from the technical reasons why the Chiefs are the superior team taking the field today, there is another, more philosophical advantage that KC brings to today's meeting.

A team playing for their chance to achieve greatness becomes hungry and dangerous after facing early-season adversity. KC still has every reason to believe they can earn a bye week in the playoffs when they see the underwhelming teams currently atop the standings. The AFC's three teams with three wins are the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals. I don't believe that any of these teams that failed to finish last season with winning records will threaten the Chiefs' chances at the top playoff seed this season. Dropping to 1-3 would make reclaiming the #1 seed highly unlikely, while climbing to 2-2 keeps the chase for the bye week alive and well. This simple fact will motivate everyone in the Chiefs organization.

I'm predicting a 37-20 victory for our Chiefs today as they try to get mentally healthy before facing the Buffalo Bills next Sunday night. A Kansas City team led by Andy Reid won't overlook the Eagles; they'll simply execute their game-plan effectively enough to use Philly as their punching bag after two weeks of serious frustration.