KC Should Make Quick Work of Unreliable Raiders

The 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs are back at Arrowhead to face the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders in a rare Friday afternoon game. Chiefs fans are hopeful their team keeps hold of the #1 seed in the playoff bracket, while Raiders fans are presumably hopeful that a top-five pick in next year's draft could make them less miserable. Kansas City just added D.J. Humphries for some much-needed help at left tackle, while the Raiders just lost their starting QB Gardner Minshew to a season-ending collarbone fracture. KC already beat the Raiders less than three weeks ago when Vegas had a healthy Minshew. There's little reason for hope for the Raiders today, or any time soon.

Nobody runs the ball for fewer yards per game than Las Vegas this season. That leads to struggles with moving the sticks and controlling the clock, as is evident by the Raiders ranking 25th league-wide in average time of possession. The Chiefs' effective rushing attack paired with strong coaching has led to them ranking fourth in average time of possession this season. I suspect that the Chiefs wish to dispose of the Raiders with minimal drama and risk to player health, so they should bleed clock when they have the lead. With an over/under of 42 points in today's game, I'd undoubtedly lean towards betting the under. 

Anyone predicting a win for the Raiders today is just a troll or a clickbait creator. Patrick Mahomes' career Passer Rating of 108.5 against the Raiders suggests that he enjoys beating up on the noisy little brother of the division. Vegas' rankings in points scored and points allowed have dropped off since last season. They're the worst team the Chiefs will face all year aside from the Panthers, but KC didn't exactly destroy Carolina last week, so perhaps today's game won't be as lopsided as the 13.5-point spread would indicate. For the record, Vegas lost to those same Panthers by two touchdowns in Week 3. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for the Chiefs that feels like more of a blowout than the final score indicates.

Panthers Pose No Challenge to Chiefs' Playoffs Pole Position

The 9-1 Kansas City Chiefs still hold pole position for the #1 seed in the AFC, but the legs of Josh Allen dashed KC's hopes for an undefeated season last week. In Orchard Park, the Chiefs suffered defeat for the first time since last Christmas. This week, they're back to the noon slate for a road game with the 3-7 Carolina Panthers. This version of the Panthers, like most versions of the Panthers over the last decade, seems hopeless. In their last six seasons, the Panthers have employed seven head coaches and finished last in their division four times. Nothing about this year's stats indicates a positive change coming soon.

Their 3-7 record is actually far better than the numbers would have us think. After beating the Raiders for their first win in Week 3, the Panthers lost five straight games, all by multiple possessions. Then they beat the 4-7 Saints by one and the 2-8 Giants in overtime. For the sake of reference, the 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars are objectively awful this season, and their point differential of -108 is the second-worst in the league. Carolina is currently at -143.

I've heard a lot about Patrick Mahomes' Passer Rating looking relatively ugly this season, but Bryce Young's Rating ranks 35th in the league. That means he's playing worse than both the backups who played for Miami when Tua was hurt, both the QBs who have started for Tennessee and Cooper Rush. Carolina's defense is allowing the most points per game of any team in the NFL. This is in large part to them allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL. The only category in which Kansas City matches the Panthers' subpar status is the turnover differential; the Panthers and Chiefs are tied for ninth-worst in the NFL with a -5.

So, what kind of positive takeaways can I mention about this current version of the Panthers? Well, Chuba Hubbard has rushed for over 90 yards in five games this season. That's nice, right? It's nicer than anything I can think to say about their other skill players on offense. Five different Panthers have had the highest receiving yards total in a game this season. Not on that list is Xavier Legette, their latest first-round draft pick.

The Chiefs are not perfect this season, and their record finally reflects that in earnest. That does not mean they're susceptible to losing games to teams like the Panthers. KC has an interior offensive line so great that Pro Football Focus names the Chiefs' offensive line as the second-best in the league despite Kansas City's significant struggles at the left tackle position. Carolina's aforementioned inability to stop the rush will doom them against the Chiefs and any other competent teams they play this year. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for Kansas City.

Real Rivalry Renewed as Chiefs Face Bills in Buffalo

The 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs have already vanquished numerous so-called rivals this season, but today, the Chiefs finally face off with a team worthy of that label. Kansas City ended the Buffalo Bills' last season in the divisional round of the playoffs with a 27-24 victory at Arrowhead. The Bills have won the regular season meeting between these two AFC powerhouses in their last three chances, but KC has ended Buffalo's bid for a Super Bowl in three of their last four seasons. It's safe to say that all the ingredients for true beef are available in this star-studded afternoon matchup. While the Bills enter this game with the league's second-highest scoring margin and third-highest scoring offense, KC enters this game with some obvious and unresolved flaws.

The Chiefs kept their undefeated streak alive through serious adversity, and that won't change in Orchard Park today. KC has been walking a tightrope these last two weeks with an overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a last-second blocked field goal to beat the Denver Broncos 16-14. The Chiefs' issues at left tackle are glaring and well-documented, and the absence of Harrison Butker, who's quickly becoming one of the most prolific kickers in NFL history, will be felt this afternoon. KC's turnover differential also holds them back from being the best version of themselves. While KC's turnover rate of -4 ties them for the league's 9th-worst, the Bills come into this game with a differential four better than any other team in football.

Those turnover numbers for Buffalo are remarkable in every way. The Bills rank fifth in interceptions and third in fumbles forced, totaling in the second-most takeaways in football. Josh Allen's offense has fumbled twice and thrown four picks, resulting in the league's fourth-fewest total giveaways. That means Allen is on pace to throw fewer than eight interceptions after three consecutive years of throwing at least 14. That improvement has changed the way fans and pundits league-wide view the Bills this season.

One thing that never changes is Patrick Mahomes' ability to be great when it matters most, despite his relatively pedestrian stats throughout the season. In the rare moments when he doesn't come through, the special teams and defense bail Mahomes out anyway - at least so far. I'm still predicting a Chiefs victory today because of Patrick's apparent inability to fail in the fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson has posted an insane 121.3 Passer Rating in his 80 fourth quarter pass attempts. He's the only QB who's played the majority of this season and compiled a higher Rating in the fourth quarter than Mahomes. That kind of consistent clutch performance is why I'm picking the Chiefs to overcome the Bills in a 24-23 thriller.

How Coaching Rookies Affects Revived Chiefs-Broncos Rivalvry

It's hard to tell if the Denver Broncos are legit this season. If they are, the Kansas City Chiefs may have their first real divisional rival in years. The Broncos are 5-4 with their freshly drafted quarterback Bo Nix, who gives those fans more hope than they've had in a decade. Denver also just lost by 31 points and allowed the football equivalent of a perfect game to be thrown by the opposing quarterback. The Broncos' defense looked awesome before last week's 41-10 stinker against Lamar Jackson's Ravens, and despite that, Denver still only has one win against a team with a record above 3-6.

The Broncos defense ranks sixth in passing yards and total yards allowed per game and third overall in points allowed per game. Their offense ranks in the bottom ten in each of those categories. Bo Nix's Week 7 performance against Carolina was the best of his early career, but last week against Baltimore - who allows the most passing yards per game and ninth-most points per game in the NFL - was easily his worst. It's not often you see a week-to-week difference in Passer Rating above 58 points. Broncos head coach Sean Payton is apparently a quarterbacks guru, so Nix's response to this unpredictable two weeks of play will reflect Payton's effectiveness in what is supposedly his strong-suit. 

The undefeated Chiefs exhibit their weaknesses every time they take the field while still, ya know, winning all the time. The left tackle position in particular is worryingly inconsistent, which factors heavily into a Patrick Mahomes Passer Rating that ranks 18th league-wide. Whether it's Wanya Morris or rookie Kingsley Suamataia taking the lion's share of snaps at that spot today, every passing week Andy Reid gets to strategize his way around that flaw should further improve the KC offense. Despite being sacked four times last week, Mahomes had his first three-touchdown performance of the season and finished the game with his highest completion percentage of the season. The growth of future Hall of Famer DeAndre Hopkins' role in the offense also looked like it made an immediately positive impact.

This game means the world to a Denver team that's hungry for a signature win. With the enviable burden of an undefeated record, the Chiefs also have immeasurable motivation entering today's game. Despite my far-too-consistent ramblings about Mahomes' statistical mediocrity this season, his numbers on third down, in the red zone and in the fourth quarter all point to a quarterback and a team that refuse to lose. I'll take the safe bet and predict that this won't change today against a Denver team that has proven its ability to lose to teams with flaws far more damaging that Kansas City's. I'm predicting a 27-17 victory for our Chiefs - the defending and dominant rulers of the AFC West.

Mayfield Might Make Monday More Stressful Than KC Expected

Tonight's Monday Night Football meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might wind up way closer than most experts anticipated. Yet another outcome for the Chiefs will be seriously influenced by injury. Sorry if that sounds like a bummer, and I know it's a bit of a theme this year, but that's just how it goes in full-contact sports. The Bucs looked like a sneaky-good pick to end the Chiefs' winning streak after Tampa started off 4-2, but they lost their two best wide receivers to injuries in their Week 6 victory over the Saints.

Mike Evans is out for several more weeks, and Chris Godwin's season is over. Nobody else on the roster has averaged over 43 receiving yards per game while playing in more than one game this year. The Bucs lost their last two games without Godwin and Evans healthy, but it wasn't a lack of scoring holding them back. The Bucs scored 31 on Baltimore and still lost by 10. Last week, they put up 26 on the Falcons, but they allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for four touchdowns.

Despite Baker Mayfield's remarkable resurgence with Tampa, they enter this matchup with a 4-4 record and a nine-point Vegas handicap. That isn't just because Godwin and Evans have been gone for two weeks. Tampa ranks in the bottom five in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game. They've scored 26 or more and still lost in three of their last four games. With all the Chiefs' injuries and subsequent struggles on offense in mind, this could be Kansas City's perfect opportunity to find their rhythm.

I expect Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the offense to take advantage of Tampa's flaws tonight. I'm predicting a Chiefs victory, but a nine-point spread seems like a lot. Baker really does deserve credit for the work he's putting in as a Buc this season and last. He has compiled the NFL's seventh-best Passer Rating and second-highest average for passing yards per game. That consistency on offense could keep this one close. I'm picking the Chiefs to surpass 30 points for the first time since November of last season and win this game 31-24.