Can Colts Cool KC Down?

The AFC West doesn't quite look like the juggernaut many experts anticipated, but I'm still thrilled to see our Kansas City Chiefs alone on top of the division. Beating the Los Angeles Chargers was no easy task. Patrick Mahomes looked mortal multiple times when potential picks were bobbled and dropped by the frustrated Chargers secondary. Rookie seventh-rounder Jaylen Watson turned a probably touchdown for LA into a memorable touchdown for KC with a 99-yard pick-six. Patrick's haters can hate all they want, but the game ended with both QB's posting a Passer Rating over 100 and Mahomes earning more than five points than Justin Herbert in this measurement. Today, we'll see the #1 Passer Rating in football against the #31 Passer Rating.

Call it a trap game if you want, but there should be little hope for the 0-1-1 Indianapolis Colts today. They have failed to achieve victory over two teams that Vegas oddsmakers expect to win 11 games combined this season. Indy's defense consistently fails to apply pressure, and it's making success on either side of the ball difficult for them. Only five teams in the NFL have fewer sacks through two weeks, and only three teams allow a better Passer Rating to opposing QB's.

Not even the production of last season's rushing leader should be enough to keep the Chiefs from victory. Jonathan Taylor's 161 rushing yards in Week 1 weren't enough to help the Colts win against the Houston Texans. That's not to say the Chiefs will allow that kind of performance today, even with the noteworthy loss of Willie Gay to suspension. KC faced another top-shelf running back last week when they hosted LA, and Austin Ekeler averaged only 2.8 yards on the ground over 14 carries. There's no other individual on Indy's roster that forces opposing coaching staffs to alter their battle plans.

The Chiefs don't look perfect, but they look like a real Super Bowl contender. The Colts don't look talentless, but they look like a real contender to choose first in next year's draft. I'm taking the Chiefs, 34-17. 

Will Herbert Wilt Under Wild Arrowhead Crowd?

Witnessing an elite team's adjustments after a disappointing defeat is an inherently intriguing moment in any sport. How will the Kansas City Chiefs react to letting the game slip away last week? KC returns to Arrowhead today to face a foe from within the division with a bright future and a potentially elite young quarterback.

The Los Angeles Chargers, despite my praise, also failed to win a very winnable game last week when they lost 20-17 to the Dallas Cowboys. Justin Herbert shows flashes of brilliance and has completed over 70% of his passes this season, but he's falling short of the production offered by Patrick Mahomes. Herbert has a Passer Rating of 86.1, an Adjusted QBR of 42.8 and a 7.7 yards-per-completion average. Mahomes has a Passer Rating 131.4, an Adjusted QBR of 78.6 and a 10.1 yards-per-completion average.

The promising Chargers QB has an array of worthy weapons at his disposal. A potent combo of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen could give the Chiefs defense headaches, but again, the Chargers haven't yet put the pieces together to create a consistently successful offense. After facing the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Football Team, this Herbert-led offense averages 416 yards per game  which is fifth-highest in the NFL. Despite this success moving the ball, their average of 18.5 points scored per game is sixth-lowest.

The frightening truth for Chiefs Kingdom entering this game is that KC's defense keeps failing to perform at the same level as those in Dallas and D.C. The Chiefs defense allows the most yards per game of any team in the league and the fifth-most points so far this season. Their biggest failures have come in the redzone, where Chiefs opponents have scored eight touchdowns in eight appearances.

Today's face-off certainly seems like a good example of the old "something's gotta give" cliché. Will Herbert continue to stunt his own success with turnovers, or will KC's defense keep crumbling deep in their own territory? The results from this game will give us a little bit of both, I would guess. Look for the Chiefs to make a play or two on defense that will mostly make up for their aforementioned redzone struggles. I'm predicting an exciting, rivalry-growing 33-27 victory for the Chiefs as the Arrowhead crowd goes crazy.