The champion of the AFC West will be decided at Arrowhead tonight, and I could not be less confident in my ability to predict a winner. The Kansas City Chiefs were the consensus #1 football team in the universe through the schedule's first five weeks. Then, KC confused and saddened Chiefs Kingdom with nearly two months of nigh-incompetence. I don't know which team will show up tonight. The clearest reason I can give for last week's success is that Oakland was never a solid team, and KC simply took care of business against a sub-par opponent, but maybe I'm not giving my Chiefs enough credit. I hope they deserve more, but betting on them against the Chargers seems illogical.
L.A hasn't given up more than 26 points in a game all season, and they haven't allowed more than 13 in any of their last three games. The Chargers' rush defense ranks near the bottom of the league, and the Chiefs must take advantage of this in order to make tonight's game competitive. Unfortunately, the Chargers' pass rush ranks near the top. Chiefs offensive play-caller Matt Nagy has his work cut out for him against one of the NFL's best duo of edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Those two have helped the Chargers hold opponents to the second-lowest points-per-game average in football this season. That brings me to today's three predictions:
1. Because of all the aforementioned reasons, I predict that KC will score fewer than 18 points tonight, but I also predict that this game will be decided by seven points or less.
2. Red zone efficiency will decide this game, and thereby decide who's the best in the AFC West. L.A holds opponents to the second-lowest red zone touchdown scoring percentage in the league (37.93%). Throughout 2017, the Chiefs have struggled to finish trips to the red zone with touchdowns. The Chargers should be able to hold KC to field goals often today, but L.A also struggles to score TDs in the red zone. Their red zone TD scoring percentage of 42.5% ranks 29th in the league - just below KC's 44.44%.
3. I'm afraid the Chargers' pass rush will be too much for KC's offensive line to handle. I predict a tough loss for our Chiefs, 23-16. Clearly though, my prediction skills are trash, so when I'm wrong about this, I'll be neither shocked nor upset. Whatever happens tonight decides whether we're talking about the playoffs or the draft next week, so I really, really hope I'm wrong (again).
Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and occasionally tweets @DLaC67.
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