We were cheering on an unbeaten team only weeks ago, but it now feels like eons since all was well in Chiefs Kingdom. Our Kansas City Chiefs are five-point underdogs at home against the 6-1 Green Bay Packers tonight. Our franchise QB, despite being a double-jointed freak athlete, will sit this one out to protect against re-injury. How can KC will their way to victory in front of the home faithful tonight?
Their efforts to upset Aaron Rodgers and Company revolve around the Chiefs' ability to stop the Green Bay running game and their ability to come through clutch against the Packers' bend-don't break style of defense. Only five teams allow more yards per game than Green Bay this season, but only eight teams have allowed fewer points per game. The Chiefs will win or lose depending on how they perform in the red zone and on third down tonight.
An almost exclusively Patrick Mahomes-led KC team is seventh in the league in 3rd down completion percentage. Rodgers' squad ranks 22nd. The Chiefs' ability to perform in those clutch moments under Matt Moore's leadership remains a mystery, and we can expect plenty of Moore handing the ball off tonight. That would both limit his impact on the game and exploit a weakness in the Packers' defense. Green Bay ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed per game this year, and the Chiefs rank 29th.
The apparently improved Packers defense held each of its first seven opponents to under 25 points, except for the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly beat Green Bay 34-27 in a Week 4 showdown in which Packers RB Aaron Jones ran the ball 13 times for 21 yards. Jones averages only four yards per rush over his 101 carries this year, and the Packers clearly struggle when he produces at a level below that average. Limiting Jones could present Green Bay with problems, but injuries to Frank Clark, Chris Jones and others leaves the Chiefs run defense riddled with holes and unsettling questions.
Oh, and Green Bay ranks 13th in sacks and 5th in total takeaways. You better believe that will play a part in tonight's game, as the injured KC linemen Eric Fisher and Andrew Wylie watch helplessly from the sideline as their replacements continue to stumble. It will take a truly remarkable effort from several Chiefs backups tonight to earn a memorable victory for KC. Despite a serious home-field advantage and a strong defensive showing their last time on the field, no betting man would give our Chiefs the edge in this one.
Doug LaCerte is too busy procrastinating everything in his life to post much on Facebook and Twitter.
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