KC Coaches Ready for Revenge This Raider Week

A change of location for their biggest rival cannot change the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs know their opponents in tonight's primetime game very well. The 6-3 Las Vegas Raiders lay claim to the only victory over this season's Chiefs. The whole world expects Patrick Mahomes to score in bunches every game, but the unpredictable variable most likely to decide the winner of this meeting is probably the effectiveness of Derek Carr's offense.

The Raiders' average points scored this year is eighth league-wide, but Carr's passing doesn't always play a role on first down. Only the Titans, Ravens and Browns run the ball with more frequency on first down. You'd think the Raiders found lots of success in this situation if that's their plan, but Las Vegas' 4.3 yards per carry on first down is actually below league average. 

Debatable efficacy combined with KC's mediocrity in stopping the pass on first down may force Raiders head coach John Gruden to readjust this week. The league average Passser Rating of qualified quarterbacks throwing to the short middle of the field (less than 15 yards) is 97. KC allows a 128 to opposing passers in that context this season. 

If it's close, tonight's game could come down to Carr's rare shots downfield. He looks great in a limited sample size throwing deep to the right, and he struggles throwing deep-left. KC shuts down the deep left of the field and sometimes struggle to stop big plays on the right side. Finding ways to push Carr to the left of the pocket while still defending against the short-pass attack will be key to the scheming strategy for Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

I think a few weeks studying what went wrong in KC's loss to the Raiders will be enough to help Spags coach this defense to victory today. A bunch of moments had to go the Raiders' way  in order for Vegas to sneak away with a W last time. I cannot expect Andy Reid to lose to the Raiders coming off a bye week after Andy lost to them weeks earlier. It seems like a recipe for revenge for Reid and the rest of Kansas City, so I predict a 34-24 victory for our Chiefs.