Monday, November 18, 2019

Patrick Should Ease Panic in Chiefs Kingdom

Our Kansas City Chiefs found numerous creative ways to help themselves lose in Tennessee last week, which immediately added weight to this evening's meeting with the Chargers in Mexico. The reigning MVP returned to the field and racked up 446 passing yards and three touchdowns. Somehow, Kansas City then lost. This stunning defeat makes KC's chances at a first-round bye slim, to say the least. If our Chiefs cannot defeat the Chargers tonight, the lowly Oakland Raiders will momentarily claim first place in the division. Imagine explaining that to a member of Chiefs Kingdom when KC was 4-0 to start the season.

It took a lot of things going wrong for our Chiefs to stumble into a loss last week, and that's a very important thing to remember going forward. Up to four different members of the offensive line were missing at some point due to injury. Damien Williams coughed up the football, which the Titans scooped up for a defensive touchdown. The reliable Harrison Butker missed an extra point. Then came the ugly, painful ending, wherein the Chiefs seemed determined to beat the odds and give away a win by any gut-punchingly wacky means necessary.

The prolific combo of Mahomes and Reid got the ball back in Titans territory with less than two minutes left in the game and a five-point advantage. KC failed to moved the chains, leaving 1:27 on the clock as the Chiefs set up for a 47-yard field goal attempt. Then, that botched field goal/intentional grounding thing happened. This disaster left Ryan Tannehill's Titans with the ball on the Tennessee 39 with a minute and 21 seconds left to play. That led to the touchdown which gave the Titans the lead, but Mahomes still had a little time left for magic. Even after all these shenanigans and mistakes, Patrick Mahomes put KC in a position to tie with a long field goal....but you know what happened next.

I'm hearing a bunch of media personalities jumping off the bandwagon after this disappointment, but that seems illogical to me. All this stuff, this somewhat self-inflicted and silly stuff, was necessary to make the Chiefs to lose a game to an average NFL team. I didn't expect this team to have four losses at this point in the season either, but we have to look at the long list of reasons why those L's exist before we jump to any excessively harsh conclusions. Then, look at KC's remaining schedule, and remember the fact that KC plays four of its six remaining regular season games against teams with losing records.

With Mahomes healthy, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo at least showing us an openness to adaptation, this Chiefs team still has a good chance at finishing the regular season as a more cohesive, effective football team than what we saw last year. If you believe that, then you still believe they have Super Bowl aspirations. 

Now, if our Chiefs get stomped tonight by the 4-6 Chargers, we can all proceed to panic. I don't care about how surprising it is that the Chargers aren't better, and I don't care about their thus-far-underutilized talent. The Phightin' Philips simply aren't better than our Chiefs on paper or on the gridiron. Their yards-per-game average ranks in the middle of the pack, and their scoring ability is well below-average. But, while the Chargers offense looks unimpressive on paper, their defense looks elite. 

San Diego The Chargers rank fifth league-wide in yards allowed per game, and only five teams in the NFL hold teams to fewer points per game this season. This could dampen the moods of folks hoping for a high-scoring affair, but I still expect Andy and Patrick to hungrily regain respect in prime-time tonight. That doesn't mean it will be easy, and every time I come here to tell you the Chiefs are objectively better on paper than another team, that team then hurts my feelings by hurting the Chiefs. Tension will be high tonight in Mexico City, but KC has a little advantage and a lot to prove.

Doug LaCerte writes about the Chiefs and mostly ignores his Twitter and Facebook.

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Mahomes' Return Should Make KC's Travel to Tennessee Successful

It looks like our Kansas City Chiefs found a legitimate backup quarterback when they called on recently un-retired Matt Moore to don the red and gold. Moore helped the Chiefs upset the Minnesota Vikings last week and quelled any fears Chiefs Kingdom may have had about their team's potency without its most important piece. After that performance, KC's running defense seems ready for action against another squad with a powerful rushing attack.

Recently, KC's defense finally looked legit when they needed to stop the run. Over the last three weeks, opposing teams averaged only 3.8 yards per rush. The Chiefs just upset the Vikings due in large part to limiting Dalvin Cook, who still has the league's most rushing yards after being limited to just 71 over 21 carries last week. Through my extensive research, I've gathered that Derrick Henry is what kids these days call a "thicc boi". He's in the top ten in rushing yards and attempts this season, and both of Tennessee's sub-par QB's have relied on him heavily. The 6'3, 238 lb. Alabama product figures heavily into Tennessee's offensive strategy partly because he's really good, but also because their passing attack decidedly is not.

Tennessee's 212.9 passing yards per game ranks 24th league-wide, and their 18.7 points per game ranks 26th. This inefficiency helped the Titans to a losing record and the #10 seed in the AFC playoff picture so far this season. They've been held to seven points or fewer in three of their nine games, and they've only scored more than 27 points once. Our Chiefs scored more than 27 in each of their first four games this season - that is, until Patrick Mahomes was first hurt in Week 5 against the Colts.

All these advantages make KC a six-point favorite on the road today, but how can the Titans pull off an upset? A Chiefs loss today would need to include a lopsided turnover ratio and consistent pressure aggressively applied to Mahomes, as well as a productive day from Derrick Henry. If KC's defense can stay hot against a stumbling Titans offense, the return of our man Mahomes will result in another satisfying victory.

Doug LaCerte has written about Chiefs football for eight years, and he's neglected his Twitter and Facebook that whole time.

Sunday, November 3, 2019

Banged-Up Chiefs Face Major Mismatches from Minnesota

Our Kansas City Chiefs just gave Aaron Rodgers' Green Bay Packers a run for their money while the left side of the Chiefs' offensive line, their superstar QB and five key pieces on defense were parked on the sideline with injuries. Now, the reigning NFC Player of the Month, one of the five best running backs in the universe and a truly elite defense combine to bring another formidable foe to Arrowhead.

The 6-2 Minnesota Vikings look like a complete team that seems to have strengths wherever our Chiefs have weaknesses. Emerging star running back Dalvin Cook should rack up big numbers against a KC defense that struggles to stop runners with half that much talent. A blitz-happy Vikings defense should cause problems for a still-injured Chiefs offensive line. However, Minnesota's imperfections, combined with newly found strengths for KC, should keep this game competitive and fun-to-watch.

Although many facets of this Vikes team appear Super Bowl-worthy, Kirk Cousins could struggle and maybe throw a pick because of the fresh energy from Kansas City's pass-rushing core. The return of Chris Jones will undoubtedly help a squad that's already gelling and becoming more cohesive - so cohesive, in fact, that KC's blitzing game could finish the year as one of football's very best.

The Chiefs just doubled their team sack total over the last two weeks by sacking Denver's Joe Flacco nine times in Week 7 and bringing down Aaron Rodgers five times last week. This resurgence pushed KC into the top five of this year's team sack totals. The Vikings aren't far behind though, with 23 total sacks total this year. The absence of Chiefs offensive linemen Eric Fisher and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif may put Matt Moore in danger today.

This will be the second week in a row in which the Chiefs lose and Chiefs Kingdom is mostly okay about it. We won't sweat it too much because KC will lose a close an intriguing game in which the defense continues to show its growth. Say what you may about Kirk Cousins, but he's played like a top-tier QB over the last four weeks. Looking good in defeat to a capable, mismatch-filled Minnesota team will hurt KC's chances at a first-round bye in the playoffs, but it would still leave fans in Kansas City with high expectations for the very near future.

Doug LaCerte writes last-second articles about Kansas City sports while still neglecting his Facebook and Twitter accounts.

Sunday, October 27, 2019

How Can KC Compete With Packers While Reeling From Injury Issues?

We were cheering on an unbeaten team only weeks ago, but it now feels like eons since all was well in Chiefs Kingdom. Our Kansas City Chiefs are five-point underdogs at home against the 6-1 Green Bay Packers tonight. Our franchise QB, despite being a double-jointed freak athlete, will sit this one out to protect against re-injury. How can KC will their way to victory in front of the home faithful tonight?

Their efforts to upset Aaron Rodgers and Company revolve around the Chiefs' ability to stop the Green Bay running game and their ability to come through clutch against the Packers' bend-don't break style of defense. Only five teams allow more yards per game than Green Bay this season, but only eight teams have allowed fewer points per game. The Chiefs will win or lose depending on how they perform in the red zone and on third down tonight.

An almost exclusively Patrick Mahomes-led KC team is seventh in the league in 3rd down completion percentage. Rodgers' squad ranks 22nd. The Chiefs' ability to perform in those clutch moments under Matt Moore's leadership remains a mystery, and we can expect plenty of Moore handing the ball off tonight. That would both limit his impact on the game and exploit a weakness in the Packers' defense. Green Bay ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed per game this year, and the Chiefs rank 29th.

The apparently improved Packers defense held each of its first seven opponents to under 25 points, except for the Philadelphia Eagles. Philly beat Green Bay 34-27 in a Week 4 showdown in which Packers RB Aaron Jones ran the ball 13 times for 21 yards.  Jones averages only four yards per rush over his 101 carries this year, and the Packers clearly struggle when he produces at a level below that average. Limiting Jones could present Green Bay with problems, but injuries to Frank Clark, Chris Jones and others leaves the Chiefs run defense riddled with holes and unsettling questions.

Oh, and Green Bay ranks 13th in sacks and 5th in total takeaways. You better believe that will play a part in tonight's game, as the injured KC linemen Eric Fisher and Andrew Wylie watch helplessly from the sideline as their replacements continue to stumble. It will take a truly remarkable effort from several Chiefs backups tonight to earn a memorable victory for KC. Despite a serious home-field advantage and a strong defensive showing their last time on the field, no betting man would give our Chiefs the edge in this one.

Doug LaCerte is too busy procrastinating everything in his life to post much on Facebook and Twitter.



Thursday, October 17, 2019

Can Stumbling Chiefs Rebound Against Resurgent, Determined Denver Broncos?

At least three weeks have passed since our Kansas City Chiefs looked like the Super Bowl contenders I envisioned at the start of the season. Could KC's woes continue when they face off with the last-place, two-win Denver Broncos at Mile High tonight? It seems disturbingly possible.

Nothing about this Chiefs team looks elite right now, and multiple facets of the team are downright awful. An injury to the ankle of the most important man in Kansas City sports just exposed some flaws in the Chiefs' offense. Even with Tyreek Hill back on the field, KC failed to outscore Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans last Sunday. The injuries to the offensive line continue to make the Chiefs look fragile on the side of the ball where all of us assumed they would dominate. KC's inability to protect the team's most important asset in Patrick Mahomes threatens to invalidate their claim to being among the best teams in the league.

The gameplan to beat the Chiefs now looks simple; teams who get an early lead and run the ball successfully enough to move the chains in the second half just edged out wins against KC in consecutive weeks. For all its flash, a prolific Air Raid-style offense just got outscored on two straight Sundays because of not only the Chiefs' inability to protect their star QB, but also their inability stop the run. The five teams to allow the league's highest rushing yards-per game averages include the Bengals, the Dolphins, the Redskins, the Browns and our Chiefs. That's three awful football teams and two who are failing to live up to lofty expectations because of this exact problem.

While Denver won't light up scoreboards every week, they've played well enough to keep nearly every game within reach this year. The Broncos began their season losing to Oakland, Chicago, Green Bay and Jacksonville, but only the Packers won by more than one possession. Denver then beat the Chargers in Week 5 and shut the Titans out last week. Only three teams in football hold opponents to a lower total yards-per-game average. After starting the year with three straight games without a sack or a takeaway, Denver's defense gelled. Seven sacks and three takeaways resulted in victory during their last effort, the aforementioned 16-0 win against Tennessee.

The Broncos enter this important Thursday encounter with a bunch of momentum, and our Chiefs enter Denver with a bunch of questions. Tonight's result will bring into focus KC's true identity. Teams that we would deem "great" don't lose to a cellar-dwelling division rival after dropping two straight at home. If that happens tonight, then Chiefs Kingdom loses its claim to an elite football team. If the Chiefs win, it will be just one important step on the path to greatness.

Doug LaCerte is too busy overreacting to this mess to bother with Twitter or Facebook.

Sunday, October 13, 2019

Can KC Save Face Against Tough Texans Team?

Could the Chiefs' offensive and defensive lines play so poorly that it costs KC a chance at a championship? Could they really be so bad at old-school football and "winning in the trenches" that it spoils a season that should end in a Super Bowl appearance? Or is it all just overblown hyperbole from the spoiled citizens of Chiefs Kingdom?

Little column A, little column B.

Witnessing our Chiefs lose the way they did to the Indianapolis Colts last week shocked me. We've never seen any team stifle the strengths of a Mahomes Era Chiefs team enough to win in such a low-scoring manner. Today, KC faces even tougher competition when rising star Deshaun Watson brings a top-ten rushing offense and an elite defense to Arrowhead. When I see it all on paper, the Houston Texans scare me far more than that Colts team did.

A future Hall of Famer in J.J. Watt leads the talent-packed defense. A two-time All Pro in Deandre Hopkins provides nightmare fuel for sub-par secondaries every single season. The Texans also re-tooled their previously awful offensive line with draft picks and a huge trade for left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Frank Clark is the Chief Tunsil is expected to contain this week, and Clark already underwhelmed enough to be consistently called out by local and national football media, alike. Those players and matchups will be important for KC, but none of them will matter if the Chiefs' banged-up offensive and defensive lines continue to falter.

Quenton Nelson and Anthony Castonzo don't play positions that garner much attention, but their overwhelming success on the left side of Indy's offensive line won the Colts the game last week. However, I could also say the Colts' defensive line made the difference by consistently pressuring Patrick Mahomes. Throughout the game, Mahomes tried unsuccessfully to get his game going behind an injury-riddled O-line that often looked lost.

The Chiefs coaching staff undoubtedly preached the philosophy of winning one-on-one matchups at the line of scrimmage all week long in practice. Whether or not this philosophy turns into production on the field may decide the winner of today's game. Without Chris Jones, KC's defense needs to limit a capable running offense and make Watson uncomfortable. Without Eric Fisher or Andrew Wylie, KC's offensive line needs to protect Patrick enough to keep him healthy and simply give the magician enough time to make some magic. That could be a lot to ask when facing off against a legit playoff contender like the Texans.

Doug LaCerte writes about KC sports and still neglects his Twitter and Facebook.

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Can KC Continue Success Against Indy?

Our Kansas City Chiefs represent the elite in the NFL, but they'll once again face an unproven team from an AFC marred in mediocrity. The 2-2 Indianapolis Colts claimed victory against the Titans and Falcons, but they also lost to shaky Chargers in Week 1 and the Raiders last week. Like many teams in KC's conference, I still can't decide if Indy's a playoff team this season or a top-ten draft pick recipient next season.

The Colts rank 19th league-wide in yards per game and 16th in yards allowed.The only objectively strong facet of this Luck-less Colts team is their rushing attack that averages the 7th-most yards per game this season. Unfortunately for them, and for Chiefs fans curious about KC's defense, Marlon Mack's availability is a game-time decision. Mack is practicing with his squad on the field this afternoon, so most are hopeful that he'll play adequately, but any kind of diminished production from him makes a big impact on tonight's game.

With or without a strong Marlon Mack on the field, Chiefs Kingdom will keep a sharp and critical eye on KC's defense tonight. The Chiefs' run-stopping abilities looked suspect throughout the first quarter of the schedule. A lack of big plays from Frank Clark and the rest of Steve Spagnuolo's defense allows fans' fears to endure in Kansas City. This flaw could be heart-breaking for fans when top-shelf teams play the Chiefs, but that's not the case tonight.

While the Colts seem to be great at nothing, KC excels in passing the ball at a nearly historic level. The second-best passing team in the NFL averages 55 fewer yards per game than our Chiefs. Only two AFC teams allow more points this season than the Colts. Without the field-stretching Tyreek Hill or #1 overall draft pick Eric Fisher, the Chiefs are tied with Baltimore entering this week for the highest points-per-game average in the league. It should take more than being maybe above-average to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

I expect Chiefs Kingdom to celebrate long into the crisp Kansas City night after a prime-time victory, but I also know that KC cannot overlook any opponent on their schedule. Each team the Chiefs play this year will be excited to prove themselves against elite competition. Thankfully for Chiefs fans, Andy Reid and his crew won't get caught looking past the Colts, but no statistic available would indicate that Indianapolis has the advantage in tonight's game.

Doug LaCerte writes about Kansas City sports and makes great wine in suburban Kansas City, which usually leaves him too preoccupied to mess with his Facebook or Twitter.