Your Kansas City Chiefs return to Arrowhead tonight for our second helping of Monday Night Football this month. The 3-3 Denver Broncos must feel as if beating the 5-2 Chiefs is their best, and perhaps only chance to win the division title this season. Judging by the strength of each teams' schedule looking forward, they're probably right.
A desperate team is always dangerous, just like the Steelers and the Raiders have proven over KC's last two disappointing games, but the stats seem to foretell another prime-time victory for the Chiefs this week. A quick look at the numbers makes it easy to see why Vegas is giving KC 7 to 7.5 points at home tonight. Here are my three quick predictions for Chiefs-Donkeys, 2017-18, Part 1 (I should really get better at naming these things. I'll work on that.):
1. Denver's points-per-game average is 24th in the league, while KC's 29.6 points per game puts them behind only the Texans and Rams. Denver's rush defense is the league's best, but Kareem Hunt is currently the league's best rusher. Denver may limit Hunt's effectiveness tonight, but the Chiefs also have a QB who put up a 127.3 passer rating in last week's loss to Oakland. Denver also has no answer for Travis Kelce, who racked up 261 yards in his two games against the Broncos last season.
It's very possible that Hunt will finish the day with his second-lowest rushing yardage total so far this season (since Pittsburgh held him to 21 yards in Week 6.) This is largely because Denver should limit him more than any other defense in football can, but it's also because Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy will build their game-plan around knowing exactly that. I predict that Kelce and Demarcus Robinson, who is growing more comfortable playing in place of the injured Chris Conley, to combine for over 150 yards, as the Chiefs offenses alters its style to counter Denver's biggest strength.
2. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton's decision-making, namely his refusal to send a blitz and the defense's general inability to pressure opposing QB's, became a huge topic of concern in the Kingdom over these last couple weeks. Once KC's coaching staff hears that Derek Car dropped back over 50 times in Thursday's pull-your-hair-out loss to the Raiders, and the Chiefs defense didn't touch him one time, everyone knows that something needs to change.
I tentatively trust Sutton to make the necessary changes to get Justin Houston and others in Trevor Siemian's face tonight. I predict that Siemian will get hit at least three times, and it will result in at least one turnover.
3. Only two teams have a turnover differential better than KC's, and only two teams have a worse turnover differential than the Broncos. I know it's a somewhat cliche prediction, but I gotta do it: I predict that the Chiefs will win the turnover battle, which will help them win this game convincingly. Peace finally returns in earnest to Chiefs Kingdom as KC wins, 24-13.
Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page still, I guess, and he still uses Twitter sometimes @DLaC67.
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