High Hopes Heading Home

So the Chiefs are losing in New Orleans, 17-6, with six minutes and change left in the third quarter. Matt Cassel drops back to pass, and stares himself right into a bad interception. Saints ball, 1st and goal on the 7. One can almost smell the dread at this moment. Saints hike the ball. Touchdown. No hope. Season over. All is lost.

Shaun Draughn returns the following kick to the nine yard line, and Matt Cassel takes the field again. Great.

First play is a hand-off to Jamaal, left side. He's got a hole. A big one. The blocks are all setting up.

Uh-oh.

Like a flash, 25 is off to the races. He blows past the Saints secondary for 91 yards and the score. Touchdown. 24-13. Brand new game.

Just like that, hope sprang anew. The game wasn't over, the season wasn't over, and everybody knew that Jamaal was officially back. It brought life to a lifeless Chiefs fan base, and may have kept some fans from burning their jerseys and finding a new team to root for. So who deserves the credit for this riveting victory? Who besides Jamaal, obviously?

Well, you'll still hear harsh and hilarious jokes about this Chiefs defense for weeks to come, regardless of what they do this Sunday. But, with flaws abound, many fans are solely blaming the defense for a disappointing 1-2 start. There aren't nearly as many fingers being pointed/ curse words being shouted at the guys on offense, especially after last week's 500+ yard performance. And have you checked the stats lately? The Chiefs are the #1 offense in football, right?

Let's settle down on the "best offense in the league" talk for a minute. Yes, the Chiefs do have the league's highest yardage total, but let's put that into perspective: Jamaal Charles had 288 total yards last week.  He's averaging 107 yards on the ground. His performance paired him with Jim Brown as the only men in NFL history with 250 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards in a single game. Dwayne Bowe has 234 receiving yards, many of which came too late in the blowout in Buffalo.

 The rest of the offense? Meh. Hillis has 126 total yards this season. The passing game is 16th in the NFL, the exact middle of the proverbial road. And if you've watched Matt Cassel play, you know he's not bailing the Chiefs out of any games this year.

Cassel doesn't have any embarrassing stats to point and laugh at, but just watching how he operates under pressure leaves many Chiefs fans hypothesizing about Brady Quinn. Every game makes it more evident that this offense is held back by the guy playing the most important position. The dream of Cassel coming to life in an offense that's custom-built to his limitations is over. The idea of him spreading the ball all over the field to these talented skill-players will never be a consistent reality. He realizes this, the team realizes this, and thankfully, Daboll realizes this. So instead of putting the game in Cassel’s hands, Jamaal has 33 carries and 6 receptions. Giving Charles that many touches is asking for disaster, which Daboll probably understands. It will be one hell of a task to get this offense going next week, especially with the current injury problems; Breaston, Bowe, McCluster and Wylie are questionable to start, Hillis is doubtful, and Boss is out. Add losing center Rodney Hudson for the season, as kind of a fart-flavored cherry on top, and the offense should be expected to falter often against San Diego. The franchise adjusts to Cassel’s mediocrity by giving him plenty of short-field options to throw to, and without many of them, his play could go from subpar to awful quickly.

So don't be fooled by one legendary game from #25. This offense is not stellar, and they will have plenty of ugly moments to struggle through in coming weeks. Sorry to spoil the party. So, why is everybody still so happy? Why is there still hope? It's not just dementia brought on by watching a thrilling overtime win after two miserable blowouts. It's the defense. Yeah, I said it. It's the defense that held a determined Drew Brees scoreless for 38 and a half minutes. It's Justin Houston, making some memories and developing into a serious weapon. By the time you realize Buffalo's run game is legit and Atlanta may be Super-Bowl bound, the thorough beatings KC received against them seem less painful in hindsight, at least somewhat. So one starts to wonder- are we looking at a good defense here?

Not yet, if you look at the numbers. Still a lot of yards allowed, still giving up too many points. But seeing the game last Sunday, anyone would agree that the defense bailed the offense out not once, but many, many times. People may forget it after such an ugly start, but this is not a bad Saints offense. In week 1, New Orleans scored 34 against Washington, despite having 3 turnovers and 12 penalties that resulted in 107 squandered yards. Their points total is 9th in the league. To shut down Brees in so many consecutive huge moments takes consistent execution. Crenell's job depends on whether or not he can make the defense execute the game-plan consistently, so this performance was a big step in the right direction. The signs are there that, in time, we will see a top-shelf defense take the field each and every Sunday. Because of a front line that cannot apply pressure by itself, and a secondary prone to deep attacks in the middle of the field, we're talking about the future, and not the present. But the signs are there. Didn't you enjoy seeing the standings this week and realizing it still matters? If this defense continues to play like it did in that second half in New Orleans, fans may spend a lot more time checking the standings throughout the following months than we ever thought possible two weeks ago.

            That brings us to, well, today. A win at home against the Chargers ensures a tie for the lead in the division. Imagine how far-off 1st place felt after the Chiefs got stomped in Buffalo. It's right there, up for grabs in this game. A loss ensures that the sky comes falling down, all over again, in Chiefs Nation. At least that's what many fans will be feeling.

San Diego has loomed as a divisional front-runner for years, with the whiny but talented Philip Rivers leading the way.  But this year, the Chargers have nothing particular to be confident about. Sandy Eggo started the season by losing to the Raiders, scoring 18 points against a team that's 26th in points allowed. The Bolts followed this up with their one and only solid offensive performance. They put up 38 against the Titans, who have given up the second most yards in the league and the most points, averaging 37.7 per game. Remember that shaky Chiefs offense from a few weeks back? They scored 24 points against the Falcons. The Chargers scored 3 points and lost by 24. While their mediocrity may stir up some feelings of hope yet again, the Chiefs have only proven that they need a 288 yard performance, 5 overturned challenges, 6 field goals and 8 and a half minutes of overtime to beat a struggling, decimated Saints team.

Before the game today, take a deep breath and enjoy that Saints game in your head for a minute. That was a fascinating, exciting moment. Sadly, it may have been the best moment of this Chiefs season. Here's to hoping I'm wrong. And to prove that I often am, here are my five predictions for today:

1: While the Chargers aren't the Chargers of Years Past, they're still better than the Chiefs of Right Now. Another strong outing from Houston and the rest of the defense keeps it close, but Rivers finds too many holes in the secondary for the Chiefs to survive. Bolts win, 23-19. Also, expect at least three moments where Rivers bitches at a ref for no reason, and at least two moments when he quite visually calls out a teammate. What a big baby.

2: As I mentioned, giving Jamaal the ball in Priest Holmes-like proportions is bad news, and Daboll is (hopefully) well-aware of this. Expect Jamaal to have his carries limited to around 20 or 25. And he'll still finish the day with triple-digit yardage.

3. Kansas City relied heavily on Jamaal, not just later in the game when he went bonkers, but right out the gates on the opening drive. He helped move the ball into field goal range, where Succop landed his first of six field goals. This broke a league-leading 19 game streak of failing to score on the opening drive. Look for Daboll to finally come out with a good plan for a game-opening drive, allowing the Chiefs to start a new streak. No touchdown, though, just a field goal. Baby steps, damn it.

4. The Chiefs will want to keep the clock running today, in order to keep the defense fresh. With a run-happy, time-managing offense like this, they will do so successfully. Expect the Chiefs to have at least 8 more minutes' time of possession.

5. Here's a weird one: Dustin Colquitt shanked a punt last week, a really ugly one that rolled off his foot for 24 yards. Colquitt, being a punter, isn't talked about too much, but he really has been one of the most consistent performers on the team in recent years. Expect 24 yards to be his season low.

For more Chiefs info, check in later this week. Maybe I’ll write a whole article about punters! (I won’t).  

Not All Hope Is Lost...I Think

I wanted to write an article earlier this week. I wanted to give my response to several interesting things I've read since the meltdown last Sunday, and offer my own take on whether or not this team has lost all hope. As you can see, I didn't. Sure, I had it on my mind all the time, and I spent much of the week trying to make sense of what happened in Buffalo. But despite my love and commitment to reporting on the topic of Kansas City football, I spent plenty of my week (way more than usual) trying to get my mind off the Chiefs.

Have I explained my “sad-naps” before? Well, I could probably write a college midterm on the subject, but I'll try to keep it brief here, so as not to bore you with my psychological babble (much). Essentially, any time the Chiefs (or Royals) lose a big game, be it a back-and-forth heart-breaker or an embarrassing blowout, my dejected, mopey ass falls asleep shortly thereafter. That means if the disappointment begins at a noon kickoff, I'm passed out by 4, and there's not a damn thing anybody can do about it. If we lose bad enough, I miss the rest of the games that day. I've gotten so used to it, I look ahead on the schedule, and record the other games on DVR that day if I think we're going to lose.

“ Going into Philly this week? Sweet. Where's that damn remote?”

There is no, “ Forget it, man. Let's get out of here and blow off some steam.” No. My mind feels soggy and limp as the constant visions of a 3-11 season assault it like a heavy rain, and it refuses to let this body take one step further. Unless that step brings me closer to my bed. The response I have for my friends is never that flowery, though.

Usually I just say, “ Whatever dude. I'm taking a sad nap. I'm sorry.”

And I am.

Needless to say, I couldn't be more ready for slumber after Sunday's stinker in Buffalo. Did you catch that Cowboys game? I sure didn't. But, now that I can count the hours until kickoff, I've drug myself out of football hibernation, just in time for a little pre-game analysis. Now that we have a game in New Orleans to speculate about (notice I didn't say “look forward to”), I feel like we can all put that drudgery behind us and really move on. So enough about me and my symptoms of chronic depression, let's talk about the game!

Last week, I basically made a point that no matter what happened against the Bills, this season would be far from over. That remains true, despite what fans are feeling nowadays, or what they're reading in the papers. Here's five reasons why, or rather, five things to think about when it feels like all hope is lost.

1. Like I've said before, there's too many spots on the roster filled with impressive talent to be totally down on this team, at least in the long term. Even if we're talking about the worst case scenario, some of the most important contracts should outlast this Pioli/Cassel Era (more on that at number 4).
2. I know it sounds like a cliche excuse, but we're two games into the first year with Daboll as the OC and Romeo taking the reigns as head coach. Two games, people. Two embarrassing, awful games I know, but only two nonetheless.
3. Jamaal Charles had six rushes for 3 yards. He was pulled from the game early, after many on the sideline watched him limp back to the huddle. Crenell told the press this week that Jamaal wanted back in the game, and that he'll be ready to go against the Saints.
4. Maybe not one that will effect this season, but Clark Hunt has already shown that he's more open to change than his father, Lamar. By booting King Carl, or Crazy Carl, or whatever mean name for Carl Peterson you like most, Clark made at least one Chiefs fan confident that he's willing to make big changes when things look bad. And looking ahead on the schedule, things may look really, really bad by the end of this season.
5. The New Orleans Saints. They're 0-2, right?

And that brings me to this Sunday. “The Brees-y Boys,” as they're unfortunately called by some on the internet, are indeed reeling from an 0-2 start. With rumors and talk about Bounty-Gate and the following suspensions swirling around, the Saints lost two games to quarterbacks with a combined one year of pro football experience. They've given up more yards on the ground than any other team, and the Saints and Chiefs share the pride of allowing the most points in the league so far. The Saints aren't getting nearly enough pressure on the quarterback, having recorded only 3 sacks this season. The defense has only forced a single turnover, and Brees has thrown two picks in consecutive games.

That all sounds very ugly, or very encouraging, depending on who you root for. But who really thinks that offense isn't going to be good, and who thinks that defense can be that terrible the whole season? Not this guy, and not this week. Here's my five predictions for the game.

1. Those stats I mentioned about the porous Saints defense are sounding pretty good, right? Starting to get a little hopeful, are we? Stop it. I expect the offense to show up against a struggling defense, and I expect a secondary that's gotten burnt in big situations in back-to-back games to improve after another week of practice together. But I still expect Drew Brees to use us as his springboard back to a successful season of football. The Saints offense gives Jovan Belcher nightmares for weeks to come, and the Chiefs lose again, 37-27. I can feel the silky comfort of my bed sheets melting the sadness away already.
2. This offense loses its biggest weapon when they're down on the scoreboard. Jamaal Charles is a freak, a man on a mission, returning from a year-long injury hell-bent on being even more awesome than before. Because of two blowouts, his awesomeness has been greatly limited, and Chiefs fans have gotten far too few chances to howl his name at their TVs. If Kansas City leads the Saints for more than 12 minutes, expect 100 yards or more from Jamaal. If they don't, expect less than 50.
3. Matt Cassel has some serious happy-feet in the pocket. Blame it on the offensive line if you wish, who look like they're getting beat in the trenches nearly every play. The Saints pass rush is unimpressive right now, so look for him to settle down, find some time and finish the game with a completion percentage above 65.
4. We will have problems defending the middle of the field. Expect Darren Sproles to get 8 receptions or more, many of which will have you screaming “THE MIDDLE OF THE FIELD IS WIDE OPEN! WHAT THE HELL?” until your friends tell you to relax. That's been a bit of an issue this year.
5. If the Chiefs lose, expect Romeo to show up to the next Q&A and bore at least one person to sleep in the press room.

As we look ahead to this Sunday's game in Buffalo, ask yourself this: what would a win against the Bills tell us about this Chiefs team? Obviously, getting the W is what's most important, but how we win could be very telling of how this year's team will match up with later, tougher opponents. And, if we don't win, we'll have a lot more discomforting questions to answer.

This early in the season, fully understanding a team's identity is next to impossible. Last year, Buffalo went 6-10, with a middle-of-the-road offense and a defense that gave up the fifth-most rushing yards in the league. Only Tampa Bay and Minnesota gave up more points per game on the ground, and the passing D was similarly crappy. Actually, almost exactly as crappy; again, only The Vikings and Bucs gave up more passing yards. So with the Chiefs' arsenal of offensive skill-players, and with Jamaal going right back to being Jamaal (at least when the line holds up for, like, half a second,) Chiefs fans could easily get caught sitting back and licking our chops. The Bills' season opener against the Jets- a 48-28 blowout in New York- does little to slow the salivation.

So we can be somewhat confident on the offensive side of the ball, much to the chagrin of the organization that fired Chan Gailey. Though if you saw any five minutes of that Falcons game, you know damn well Romeo isn't losing any sleep worrying about the offense; it's the defense that garners most of the negative criticism lately, and rightfully so. Atlanta scored on their first eight possessions last Sunday. Falcons coach Mike Smith told reporters after the game that it "might be the best game" QB Matt Ryan has ever played. Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez- three guys the defense should have been gameplanning for all week- caught at least five passes each. There's plenty of ugly stats to go along with that game. I could go on. The only stat that matters, though, is 40 points. In last year's regular season, a team allowed 40 points or more 25 times, and only one of those teams came out with a victory. The Chiefs haven't scored 40 points in a game since week 7 of 2010.

While Ryan Fitzpatrick won't scare secondaries like Matt Ryan will for the next decade, he's no slouch, either. He did throw for 3 TDs against a Jets defense that ranked fifth last year in passing, and could've had more if not for throwing three picks. CJ Spiller, the second-stringer filling in for an injured Fred Jackson, ran for 169 yards. Stevie Johnson is only going to get better, and if he's double-teamed by the hopefully-healthy Brandon Flowers and a safety, it leaves the field wide open for 7-year vets Ruvell Martin and Brad Smith. Fitzpatrick targeted Bills not named Johnson for 14 passes last week against the Jets, so shutting him down isn't enough to ensure a win.

The more you look at it, this could be a close game. Apparently, this is supposed to be a much-improved Bills defense, strengthened by the hefty acquisition of Mario Williams, as well as another defensive end. The Bills hoped to improve their secondary as well by drafting CB Stephon Gilmore tenth overall. Those pickups didn't stop Mark Sanchez from scoring 48 on Buffalo last week, but one game cannot prove what this young and talented defense will look like next Sunday.

So, if we stuff the run and put up 40 points, we can have some hope for the Sunday after this, when we play the Saints in New Orleans. But will we really be confident in stopping that high-powered offense? The Bills could play their best game on both sides of the ball and still be nothing compared to what we'll face in week 3.

If we lose a heart-breaker, will you have lost all faith in Romeo Crennel and his defense? Would you really have no hope for Justin Houston? Would you scoff at Derrick Johnson, or deny all of Eric Berry's talent? No way, man.

I guess my point is, no matter what happens this Sunday, the season is far from over, and this team's identity will not be set in stone. Beating the Bills by 30 points would feel great, but beating Buffalo is not like beating the Saints. There would still be plenty of questions about the defense if the score's 38-35, and just as many about the offense if we won 13-3. Losing a game like this, on a schedule like this, would be bad news- it goes without saying. But, to think a loss here equates to an entire season of failure would be going a bit overboard. The Hunts trust that Romeo is building a foundation for a long-lasting, powerful, studly defense. That means Chiefs fans have no choice but to trust him, too. This Sunday, we'll get some clues as to whether or not that foundation was finished in time for the 2012 season, or if it's still under construction.

The franchise has also fully commited to Matt Cassel and his ability to manage the game. Turnovers are crucial, and the Chiefs know this. In an effort to make an unpredictable game less-so, Scott Pioli has given Cassel the keys and built an impressive-looking offense around him and his skill-set. However successful Cassel is at protecting the ball, Sunday's game still looks to be hard to predict. Nonetheless, I have five predictions for this upcoming Sunday. Call me crazy.

Five Predictions for Sunday-

1. Buffalo and Kansas City had oddly similar starts to their seasons last week. Both teams lost in blowouts that could have been competitive if not for a -3 turnover ratio. This week, the Chiefs D revels in having their blitz game back, and pressure from Tamba and Houston will force some turnovers. Cassel holds his poise better than  Fitzpatrick, and his efforts to keep the ball safe and manage the game pay off. Kansas City wins the all-important turnover battle, and the Chiefs win an ugly one, 26-24. A key turnover will make all the difference. Expect the offense to look erratic, almost bipolar. Much like last game, this system built around Cassel will make you grin with smug confidence through one set of downs, then make you shout obscenities and scratch your head through the next. Expect the defense not to suck (fingers crossed.)

2. Tamba forces pressure all day, but the Bills plan for it. So on the other side of the D, Justin Houston breaks loose and gets at least two sacks and several hits on the quarterback.

3.  Fitzpatrick is known to get a little wobbly after a few good knocks. If the defense gets pressure on him, expect at least two interceptions. And like I said, they'll be crucial.

4. McCluster was Cassel's favorite target, last week and throughout the preseason. Look for #22 to make two or three third down conversions that make everyone remember how much ass he kicks.

5. Javier Arenas starts another pointless slap-fight, after returning a punt for 2 yards. Book it.