5 Reasons This Giants Game Is Totally Trap-Tastic

Be afraid, Chiefs fans. Be very afraid. Although KC is undefeated and the Giants are winless, this is a trap game for numerous reasons. At least five of ‘em.

1- An accurate QB is this team’s kryptonite. The defense had to be great in order to counter Romo and Dez Bryant, and even Vick gouged the Chiefs for huge chunks of yardage at a time, in a game which could’ve been very different if not for the +5 turnover ratio. Speaking of which…

2- This streak of turnover-less football is certainly impressive, but it only makes sense that it comes to an end today. Expect a pick, or a fumble, or something. It’s simply been too long without one. The Giants are 31^st in the league in turnover ratio, but they just plain aren’t that bad. Something is bound to change.

3- The Giants lost 38-0 last week, giving Carolina their most one-sided win in franchise history, and only the 4^th regular season shutout in team history. Today’s game is as much of a must-win as you can find this early in the season. Think they’ll be motivated?

4- Jason Pierre-Paul still plays for New York, as does a still-legit defense. The Giants rank 17^th league-wide in passing yards allowed against Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Cam Newton-led offenses.

5- I hate to say it, but the Chiefs are lucky to be undefeated. The Chiefs’ offense was struggling against Dallas, but, thanks to turnovers and defense, KC snuck away with a W. The next week, the Chief’s offense was struggling against Philly, but, thanks to turnovers and defense, KC snuck away with a win. See a pattern here? If the Chiefs wish to really prove themselves as a top-shelf NFL team, the offense has to come together, and soon.

Thankfully, I believe they’ll take steps toward that today. Although this is indeed a trap game for the ages, KC should be able to pull out another gritty victory at home today. In a tense game, the D holds strong long enough for the Chiefs to get their act together on the other side of the ball. Chiefs win, 23-20.

3 Stats Each For the Optimists and Pessimists

A perfect record through the third week of the season has Chiefs Kingdom riled up and ready for Sunday's home game against the win-less New York Giants. Though some fans are already drifting to sleep with playoff visions swirling around in their eager minds, others are beginning to notice chinks in the armor. This team has a disproportionate ratio of believers to naysayers, but sadly, the skeptics present valid points. Today, I offer three messages each for the overly-optimistic Chiefs fan and the justifiably paranoid critic in an effort to (once again) simultaneously curb enthusiasm and relieve the woes of doubt. Let's start with a few distressing stats, if only for the sake of finishing in a happier mood.

1- A seemingly much-improved offensive line has allowed the 10^th most sacks and tackles for a loss in the NFL. The offense is losing an average of 11 yards per game on sacks, which is middle-of-the-road for the league so far this year.

Eric Fisher's effectiveness will be a huge factor in determining the success of this offense. That right tackle position is crucial in almost any situation- deep pass protection, setting up big run plays and earning YAC with short passes. His inability to seal the right side led to sacks and collapsed pockets on several occasions Thursday night. Fletcher Cox and Connor Barwin made him truly look like a rookie for the first time. Fisher did better in Dallas against a presumably stronger defense, so it leaves one to wonder. Only time will tell if the Philly defense is better than most assumed it would be, or if Fisher has trouble with that specific defensive scheme.

2- While a win's a win, the last two wins looked ugly on the offensive side of the ball. The Chiefs showed signs of weakness against a mediocre defense on Sunday, then again against a downright bad defense on Thursday in Philadelphia. Only the Raiders and the Rams have scored fewer points against teams the Chiefs have played this season. Thank goodness for a badass defense, which we'll get into later this week.

3- In a league dominated by passing and elite quarterbacks, KC's Alex Smith has thrown for 669 yards, ranking 24^th overall in the NFL. That's 474 yards behind the league leader in pass yards, Peyton Manning. Although fans know the teams' strengths lie elsewhere, it's still unsettling to think that the offense is producing only 58% of the passing yardage as our most significant divisional rival.

So sure, the offense has shown the fans its ugly side. It's a finesse-y kind of system that can look really bad without the proper rhythm. Alex Smith hasn't thrown for more than 275 yards in a single game, and that probably won't change much. That doesn't mean it can't do enough to win- but shit, we already knew that. 3-0 baby! Let's not forget the things that got the Chiefs this far without a loss.

1- Jamaal is one catch behind Matt Forte for the most receptions by a running back this year. For all the fans praying that 25 wouldn't be under-utilized, this may be the most promising stat of all. His limited, but consistent production running the ball will only get better over time- both through the season, and through each game. Andy Reid's strategy to slice through tired defenses with Jamaal in the 4^th quarter is a wise one. Whether Charles is catching the ball out of the backfield, lining up in the slot or running the ball traditionally, he will continue to be the bread and butter of this offense. That's comforting to anyone who cares about Chiefs football.

2- Zero turnovers. Still. That gives KC the best turnover ratio in the league at -9, and that's after two defenses got consistent pressure on Alex Smith. The Giants will prove to be an intriguing challenge, and the Texans will strike fear in the hearts of any O-line in the league. But, who else is going to put more pressure on the QB than that? This offense overcame one of their biggest tests on the schedule against Dallas, even if they just barely earned a passing grade.

3- Well, they're 3-0. That's a big deal. 75% of teams in the modern era that start the season with three straight wins reach the playoffs. The rest of the season looks to be moderately difficult at worst, and the Broncos are the only team on the schedule still without a loss. The door to the playoffs is wide open, and only Peyton's massive head stands in the way.

I'll be back later in the week to explain how this upcoming match-up against the Giants epitomizes the phrase “trap game”. Until then, let's forget about all that skepticism and enjoy the fact that the team is undefeated and KC's playoff chances look great. Let's save our negativity for that sad, fateful Sunday when we lose to the Browns (no way) or the Raiders (please don't.)

A Hopeful Home Opener Preview

On my list of least likable NFL teams, the over-hyped and under-performing Dallas Cowboys would have to rank 3^rd overall. Since the Raiders are presumably still a joke and we don't play Cincinnati this year, this Sunday will yield for me the most enjoyment I can attain from hating someone for this entire season. Let us revel in communal disgust as we discuss this upcoming Chiefs home opener.

Last year, Dallas' offensive line ranked 22^nd in the league in run blocking and 11^th in pass protection. This year, they've added two new linemen to the starting offense that have zero combined snaps in the NFL prior to last Sunday. DeMarco Murray ran the ball 20 times for 86 yards last week against the Giants. That's not an outstanding performance, nor is it an embarrassment, especially considering that the Cowboys held on for a week 1 victory. MJD's production last week? That was embarrassing.

Maurice Jones-Drew played his 100^th game and carried the ball 15 times for 45 yards, averaging 3 yards per rush. MJD was only held to a lower yard-per-carry average once in the two previous seasons. For the record, Jacksonville's offensive line ranked 17^th in run blocking last year, and with the addition of the almost-1^st overall draft pick Luke Joeckel, they're sure to rank higher in 2013.

The Cowboys will presumably counter the Chiefs' strength in stopping the run by bringing a pass-heavy offensive plan to Arrowhead this week. Romo, who is currently listed as probable for Sunday's game, completed 73.5% of his passes last week against a solid defense. He only averaged 5.4 yards per catch though, which is the lowest average he's ever recorded in a game with at least 4 completions.

The Chiefs, with an uber-athletic secondary that knows how to tackle in the open field, will hope to keep this trend going. If last week's performance is any indication of their chances, their chances look pretty damn good. Just don't forget that those numbers are artificially inflated by Jacksonville's overall crappiness. Gabbert completed 16 of 35 passes. That's less than a 46% completion percentage. He played so poorly, in fact, that he lost his job; Chad Henne will start for the Jags this week against Oakland. Bob Sutton should probably send him some kind of classy fruit basket.

The chess-match was totally dominated by Sutton last Sunday. 3 sacks by future-perennial-Pro Bowler Justin Houston and constant pressure on the quarterback will prove that as coaches review the game tape this week. Not only were Chiefs consistently getting behind enemy lines, they were often doing so untouched.

But how will the Chiefs' offense fare against the Cowboy's D? Feel free to use Wednesday's post for reference, keeping in mind the aforementioned bad-team-based inflation. Dallas gave up 450 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air last week. While Eli>Alex Smith, it's not by a lot, and I'm slowly starting to believe the hype that this offense could be at least as good as New York's. Dallas held the Giants' running backs to 42 yards in 12 carries, but they'll have a wholly different monster to deal with when it comes to Jamaal. My faith will always be with #25. Until Demarcus Ware eats him.

Here are my five predictions for Sunday's home-opener-

1- KC doubles New York's yardage output from last week. That means 84 yards, at least. The offense surprised me last week with a somewhat balance run/pass ratio, so I expect Charles to get significant touches to keep the second level of the Dallas D on their toes. An emerging group of talented receivers will spread the defense out enough for Jamaal to slash and burn as only he can.

2- Romo's completion percentage will drop by at least 8 points, thanks to some applied pressure from KC linebackers.

3- Hali and Houston get at least a sack each, as Dallas struggles to decide which side of the line they should stack.

4- Kansas City earns 25 more yards with kickoff and punt returns than Dallas, as Ryan Succop begins his season without a miss. That's a prediction twofer right there. Lucky you.

5- I'm going to be a downer with my first call of the season, but only for the sake of the unknown. We really have no idea how this offense will react to a better defense, or how this defense will react to a real quarterback. I'm going to guess that the Chiefs will compete, but ultimately get outgunned at home. Chiefs lose, 27-24, and curb the enthusiasm of this tense, excited fan-base just a little bit. It may be disappointing, but unless it's a blowout it won't be enough to stop us from daydreaming about the playoffs. It should be “dropped your beer in the stands” disappointing, not “dropped your heart medicine in the ocean” disappointing. Still, nobody enjoys spilling their beer, so let's all hope I'm dead wrong.

Acing The Easy Test

Well, that's a good start. Take away that embarrassing first set-of-downs and subsequent blocked punt for a safety, and you're looking at a dominant shutout victory for the good guys. KC outperformed the Jaguars in every facet of the game, as they damn well should have. We'll look at the defensive performance later this week, and review some matchups for the upcoming game against Dallas. Today, we're taking a closer look at this new offense's first real-game performance. As always, everything about the offense begins with the quarterback- and holy crap, how things have changed.

Smith completed over 60% of his passes (21/34) and threw for 2 touchdowns to earn a 94.4 Quarterback Rating. For reference, Matt Cassel never achieved that QBR last season, and never threw 2 touchdowns in a game while completing 60% of his passes. This wasn't even a great game from Alex Smith. In fact, it was pretty average- his 2012 QBR was 104.1 and the year prior it was 90.7. He completed 70% of his passes last year, and 61% in 2011. Smith completed passes to 9 different Chiefs, including 4 passes to new fullback acquisition Anthony Sherman.

Some things still worry me about this offense: it isn't built to score early and often, and it isn't built to come back from behind. The quick pace, no-huddle offense wears the defense down with consecutive successful drives. Unfortunately, that fatigue won't show up until later in the game, meaning the Chiefs could have difficulties scoring early against top-tier defenses. Since the offense isn't made to strike fast and come back from a big deficit, this could be a problem with more competitive teams. Still, hypothesizing about how this offense will perform against playoff defenses is considerably more fun than hypothesizing about the number one draft pick.

Speaking of which, Eric Fisher looked strong and the running game was successful. At least to me, it was surprising to see Reid decide to run the ball as often as he did. Along with many other Chiefs fans, I was concerned that the run-game would take a back seat when Andy came to town. 24 run plays and one comfy victory later, I'm convinced that Reid knows how to use this team's talent to its full effect.

6 out of 7, and 9 out of the last 13 seasons began with 0-2 records for KC. For a team that never seems to take a strong first step, a solid performance from the offense and a nearly flawless outing from the defense in week 1 means a hell of a lot. This first test was about as easy as it could be, but the Chiefs passed it with flying colors. Step one for being a winning football team is beating the teams you're supposed to beat, and KC has proven it can do just that.

Many questions remain unanswered. We still don't know how these new-and-improved Chiefs will react to a playoff-caliber team. Thankfully, we don't have long to wait. This week, an all-together different, and much more difficult test comes to Arrowhead. We'll take a closer look at Romo and the Cowboys later this week. Don't you just hate 'em? I know I do.